Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Extremeweatherguy]

according to the NWS AFD from Dallas...they are expecting re-inforcing shots of polar air tomorrow and Sunday morning. THIS is why I think it can get cold. These re-inforcing shots will only help to dry us out even more..thus allowing for better radiational cooling and lower temps. Dallas also says they are keeping their temps at least a good category below MOS guidance.

[Tyler]

according to the NWS AFD from Dallas...they are expecting re-inforcing shots of polar air tomorrow and Sunday morning. THIS is why I think it can get cold. These re-inforcing shots will only help to dry us out even more..thus allowing for better radiational cooling and lower temps.

Yes, the cold air is lagging behind the front, it will slowly continue to filter into the area, which is why widespread 20s are expected sunday morning.

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/cur ... enter_maps
yeah...if you look at this map, you can also see that the strong high is not out of canada yet...thus we do not have our coldest air being pushed due south yet. By tomorrow, though, that high will be in the Rockies/plains and pushing cold air due south. I still say that 25-27F sounds good for IAH.

[Cookiely]

A little colder than the forecast yesterday.
000
FXUS62 KTBW 101940
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
240 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2006

.SHORT TERM (TNGT-SUN)...PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE GULF STATES.
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED
BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY FAIR SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING OFF RAPIDLY THIS EVENING THEN LEVELING OFF OR SLOWLY RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY SNEAK INTO LEVY COUNTY AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS.

ON SATURDAY...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE NATURE COAST AROUND
MIDDAY AND THEN SHIFTING SOUTHWARD REACHING THE SOUTHERN ZONES IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES AND CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE CENTRAL U.S. USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER
SEASON ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THANKS TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE GULF
WHICH WILL BRING IN SOME STRATOCUMULUS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE COAST FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN STRUGGLE INTO THE 50S ON SUNDAY.


.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-THU)...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD DRY AIR WILL FILTER DOWN THE
STATE ON NORTHERLY WINDS WITH MIN TEMPS MON MORNING AT OR BELOW
FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST AND
AROUND AREA LAKES. EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
THE UPPER 20S NOSING DOWN INTO THE INLAND CENTRAL ZONES. STAY TUNED
FOR PROBABLE FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS
THOSE AREAS. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AND
THEN SLIDES EAST TO OVER THE ATLANTIC BY WED...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO MODERATE...STAYING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WED MORNING THEN
NEAR NORMAL WED/WED NIGHT AND A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THU AND FRI.
TUES MORNING MAY ALSO HAVE FREEZING TEMPS FROM PASCO NORTH BUT SHOULD
ONLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND 30. THE ONLY DAY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
ANY RAIN CHANCES IS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA MAY ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FIRST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
EVERYWHERE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS GRADUALLY
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT DRAWS NEARER TO THE
AREA. S/SW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 12+ KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE
20-25 KNOT RANGE BY MID-MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS (KTPA-KPIE-KSRQ) AROUND MIDDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOOKS LIKE RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE MET ACROSS
ALL BUT THE WEST CENTRAL COASTAL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL ISSUE
A RED FLAG WARNING. ON SATURDAY RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. BY SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL
RETURN AND MAY SEE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS MET OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF
THE NATURE COAST SOUTH INTO EASTERN POLK.

&&

[Extremeweatherguy]

just want to compare some of the NWS forecasts for tomorrow night around the state:

IAH = 30F
VICTORIA = 27F
BEAUMONT = 29F
AUSTIN = 22F
SAN ANTONIO = 26F
LUFKIN = 25F
WACO = 23F

***looks to me like the Houston NWS is still a bit too warm...especially since they keep calling for good radiational cooling. The only good news from the Houston NWS is that they do aknowledge some lows in the lower to middle 20s. For instance...they are forecasting 24F in Conroe and 26-27F in NW Harris County. My house is forecasted at 27-28F...but I am usually a good bit cooler, so I will expect 23-26F at my place. Either way...regardless of the official numbers..it is going to be cold.***

[JonathanBelles]

will there be snow in florida???????????????/

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Really!? Awesome. I'm about to get whalloped as well... Geez.

looks like the hail came from some of those pre-squall line storms too...I might see some more with the main line. Watch out Houstonions!

Is there anyone out there that can pull that line of thunderstorms towards me.?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I decided that since I made a prediction yesterday on how cold I think it will be...I will make another one now of my updated predictions. This is just to let everyone know where I stand and to understand that I AM NOT forecasting numbers of 19F or 21F at IAH. I had said it was a possibility quite a few days ago...but now those kind of readings seem unlikely (May be with the next front though?). Here are my latest predicted numbers (assuming good radiational cooling):

**these numbers can/will change in the event of better/worse atmospheric conditions tomorrow night**

IAH = 26-28F
Hooks = 24-26F
Conroe = 21-23F
Hobby = 28-30F
Galveston = 33-35F
My House = 23-25F

If IAH hits 28F, then it will be the coldest since Dec. 26th, 2004....if they hit below 28F, then it will be the coldest since Mar. 4th, 2002. So tomorrow night looks to be the coldest in quite a while for sure.

[Tyler]

I made this forecast yesterday, and I'm going to stick with my same numbers:

IAH: 26
Hooks: 23
Huntsville: 23
Conroe: 20
College Station: 24
Hobby: 29
Galveston: 34

[Tyler]

just want to compare some of the NWS forecasts for tomorrow night around the state:

IAH = 30F
VICTORIA = 27F
BEAUMONT = 29F
AUSTIN = 22F
SAN ANTONIO = 26F
LUFKIN = 25F
WACO = 23F

***looks to me like the Houston NWS is still a bit too warm...especially since they keep calling for good radiational cooling. The only good news from the Houston NWS is that they do aknowledge some lows in the lower to middle 20s. For instance...they are forecasting 24F in Conroe and 26-27F in NW Harris County. My house is forecasted at 27-28F...but I am usually a good bit cooler, so I will expect 23-26F at my place. Either way...regardless of the official numbers..it is going to be cold.***

They put the highs back down to lower 50s tommorow. Much more reasonable than mid 50s...

[Extremeweatherguy]

just want to compare some of the NWS forecasts for tomorrow night around the state:

IAH = 30F
VICTORIA = 27F
BEAUMONT = 29F
AUSTIN = 22F
SAN ANTONIO = 26F
LUFKIN = 25F
WACO = 23F

***looks to me like the Houston NWS is still a bit too warm...especially since they keep calling for good radiational cooling. The only good news from the Houston NWS is that they do aknowledge some lows in the lower to middle 20s. For instance...they are forecasting 24F in Conroe and 26-27F in NW Harris County. My house is forecasted at 27-28F...but I am usually a good bit cooler, so I will expect 23-26F at my place. Either way...regardless of the official numbers..it is going to be cold.***

They put the highs back down to lower 50s tommorow. Much more reasonable than mid 50s...

yeah I saw that too. MUCH better on the highs.

[Tyler]

FYI, GFS 18z MOS guidance goes like this:

Tonight: 42
Tommorow: 57
Tommorow night: 26
Sunday: 58
Sunday night: 29

[plainsman]

gboudx, this front is nothing special at all for North Texas, i mean highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s is no big deal ya know so what? this is not a true arctic blue norther front i mean its february, and the NWS did have a 50 to 60 percent chance of snow for Dallas theres still some moisture around though i did see where the gainsville/sherman area( a north Dallas suberb) reported light snow for an hour or 2 at 34 degrees according to the NWS.. gainsville sherman had temps in the mid 30s all day with precip falling so im sure there was wintry precip mixed in.. DFW stayed in the low to mid 40s though theres still some precipitation around.. well see what happens tonight when temps will fall in the 30s though im pretty sure all the precip will be gone like then.......

[gboudx]

Not sure what's going on north of DFW, but Gainsville/Sherman/Wichita Falls are all reporting temps in the 50's. The Gainsville airport shows some light snow at 39 earlier in the day, but the temp has risen since then. This is all according to the stats they are recording on the DFW NWS website. Not sure what's going on.

[Tyler]

Wow, just wow @ 18z GFS.

By the end of next week, the GFS shows a 1056+ MB high in NW Canada (!!!) at days 6 and 7. And this time, Canada is COLD. I hate using the 18z GFS past 84 hours, but its interesting nonetheless... Eye candy for those who want a significant arctic outbreak.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _162.shtml

It does go along with the ideas of one more shot of canadian air before spring however, so who knows.

[Tyler]

Hey guys, wanna know what a REAL arctic outbreak is. Well, the 18z GFS has your answer, day 7:



A 1056 MB high will do that ya know. Not sure if this is really going to happen, this is really just eye candy, and fun to look at. However, I do believe we could be in for another strong front sometime next weekend. Again, not forecasting anything like the 18z GFS is showing, just pointing out what the model shows...

[LAwxrgal]

Yes, but will this next shot of cold Canadian air go east instead of south? Our forecast for the next several days kind of implies a zonal flow across the country. We'll be back in the 70s by Tuesday.

[Tyler]

Yes, but will this next shot of cold Canadian air go east instead of south? Our forecast for the next several days kind of implies a zonal flow across the country. We'll be back in the 70s by Tuesday.

With a 1056+ high building in Canada, its certainly not going east, strong high pressures don't care what the flow is across the US, I just don't know how far south yet. One thing is for sure, Canada's temps won't be a problem, nor will snowpack in the Plains, they will start to accumulate again...

And I seriously hate the term "zonal flow" for next week. With such a strong PNA ridge to the west, I really don't call that zonal flow...

I like how Houston put it "500 MB FLOW
BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL EARLY TUESDAY". Keyword, briefly.

[vbhoutex]

Yes, but will this next shot of cold Canadian air go east instead of south? Our forecast for the next several days kind of implies a zonal flow across the country. We'll be back in the 70s by Tuesday.

Last look I had earlier today, it did just that-headed East. The 0 line never got past Houston.

[Tyler]

Yes, but will this next shot of cold Canadian air go east instead of south? Our forecast for the next several days kind of implies a zonal flow across the country. We'll be back in the 70s by Tuesday.

Last look I had earlier today, it did just that-headed East. The 0 line never got past Houston.

Typical GFS bias, always holds up dense cold airmasses to far north. As we get closer, the model will slowly push it more south, as it did with this intrusion this weekend. 18z at least makes sense, the 0C line does make it to Houston...

Anyway, interesting times ahead!