February 11-12, 2006 Snowstorm: Initial Estimates

[WindRunner]

I know the watch just put out from Sterling was talking about a large swath of 5"+ snowfall across the LWX region, with the watch saying up to 10" and the AFD claiming 12" max across Central MD/E VA. I'm hoping for that area to shift a little west, though . Unfortunately, doesn't look like that will happen this time.

[Windtalker1]

Initial Snowfall Estimates:

Albany: 4"-8"
Baltimore: 5"-8"
Boston: 12"-18"
Concord: 8"-12"
Hagerstown: 6"-12"
Hartford: 16"-22"
Islip: 5"-10"
New York City: 7"-12"
Newark: 6"-12"
Philadelphia: 5"-10"
Portland: 7"-12"
Providence: 12"-16"
Richmond: 4"-8"
Washington, DC: 3"-6"
DCA: 3"-6"
IAD: 3"-7"
Worcester: 14"-18" These are my thoughts on snowfall amounts. Just a gut feeling. I think this will be worse than whats expected. This sucker is going to bomb big time with snowfall rates of 3" an hour Saturday night/Sunday Morning with Blizzard condictions for Southern New England.

[BlizzzardMan]

Just to add Pittsburgh to the mix, the local mets are saying 2 to 4 for Saturday with some additional accumulation Saturday night. Maybe 3 to 5 total here as of now before it ends.

[donsutherland1]

Some early morning thoughts...

∙ It appears to me that the 2/10 6z NAM has shifted to an eastward outlier. Yesterday, at one point, it was a westward outlier. I don't like its lack of continuity.

The key to watch will be whether the NAM corrects itself or other models trend in its direction. My belief is that the the 0z GFS/ECMWF offer a reasonable idea on the storm's track.

∙ The GFS and ECMWF are now in reasonably good agreement. This should translate into a decent snowstorm for the big cities.

∙ The 6z ensemble mean continues to bring the 1" qpf very close to NYC and then later close to Boston (see attached map). In short, don't dismiss the NAM outright but don't embrace it without reservation either.

∙ For now, I have good confidence that many of my numbers are in the ballpark. Some adjustments might be required later.

[donsutherland1]

Tri-State,

It looks like this will be moving fairly quickly

[donsutherland1]

Blizzardman,

I'll look at Pittsburgh. When I post revised numbers later today (after at least the 12z guidance), I'll include Pittsburgh in the mix.

[Dave C]

The latest disc. from Taunton
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/products/BOSAFDBOX
In their disc. they mentioned a "tropopause fold" never heard that before.

[isobar]

The latest disc. from Taunton
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/products/BOSAFDBOX
In their disc. they mentioned a "tropopause fold" never heard that before.

00Z GFS RUN ALSO SHOWING TREMENDOUS WARM
AIR ADVECTION AT 300 MB...WHICH MAY BE A SIGNAL FOR A TROPOPAUSE
FOLD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

That's an interesting statement. Typically there's a temperature inversion in the tropopause, but 300mb is just below. So perhaps the temps in the tropopause w/b cooler than at 300mb and thus will create even higher lift? Maybe Don or someone can shed some light.

[Windtalker1]

Hope this helps.... http://www.lrz-muenchen.de/projekte/hlr ... h22102.pdf

[donsutherland1]

At this time, I continue to rely more heavily on the GFS, which has maintained good continuity over the past several days, than the NAM. The NAM has tended to be an outlier to the west and then to the east. The fact the ensemble data (means, majority of members and SREF) and 2/10 0z ECMWF and 2/10 12z UKMET lend decent support gives me added confidence.

It should be noted that there remains room for increases across parts of New Jersey, the greater NYC area, and southern New England, particularly where intense banding occurs/sets up. I'll reserve judgment on that impact perhaps after I've seen the 2/11 0z data.

Revised Snowfall Estimates:

Albany: 2"-5"
Asheville: 1"-3"
Baltimore: 3"-7"
Boone: 3"-7"
Boston: 8"-14"
Chattanooga: 2" or less
Concord: 4"-8"
Hagerstown: 4"-8"
Hartford: 5"-10"
Hickory: 1"-3"
Islip: 5"-10"
Knoxville: 2"-5"
Lexington: 2"-5"
Nashville: 1"-3"
New York City: 5"-10"
Newark: 5"-10"
Philadelphia: 4"-8"
Pittsburgh: 1"-3"
Portland: 4"-8"
Providence: 6"-12"
Richmond: 2"-5"
Washington, DC:
.....DCA: 3"-7"
.....IAD: 3"-7"
Worcester: 6"-12"

Historic Tidbit:

While one waits for the snowstorm to move into the Tennessee Valley, Mid-Atlantic and New England states, the following is an excerpt that was printed in the December 5, 1786 edition of the Litchfield Weekly Monitor:

Yesterday, about three o'clock, P.M. a heavy wind from the N.E. began to threaten us with an approaching storm; at half past three, a thick and incessant shower of snow descended; which, with the wind, seemed to increase all night: This morning the gale was observed at N.W. and, owing to the great quantity of snow, and terrible drifts, every avenue of communication appeared impassible--The storm still continues (1 o'clock) with increasing violence.

[Windtalker1]

At this time, I continue to rely more heavily on the GFS, which has maintained good continuity over the past several days, than the NAM. The NAM has tended to be an outlier to the west and then to the east. The fact the ensemble data (means, majority of members and SREF) and 2/10 0z ECMWF and 2/10 12z UKMET lend decent support gives me added confidence.

It should be noted that there remains room for increases across parts of New Jersey, the greater NYC area, and southern New England, particularly where intense banding occurs/sets up. I'll reserve judgment on that impact perhaps after I've seen the 2/11 0z data.

Revised Snowfall Estimates:

Albany: 2"-5"
Asheville: 1"-3"
Baltimore: 3"-7"
Boone: 3"-7"
Boston: 8"-14"
Chattanooga: 2" or less
Concord: 4"-8"
Hagerstown: 4"-8"
Hartford: 5"-10"
Hickory: 1"-3"
Islip: 5"-10"
Knoxville: 2"-5"
Lexington: 2"-5"
Nashville: 1"-3"
New York City: 5"-10"
Newark: 5"-10"
Philadelphia: 4"-8"
Pittsburgh: 1"-3"
Portland: 4"-8"
Providence: 6"-12"
Richmond: 2"-5"
Washington, DC:
.....DCA: 3"-7"
.....IAD: 3"-7"
Worcester: 6"-12"

Historic Tidbit:

While one waits for the snowstorm to move into the Tennessee Valley, Mid-Atlantic and New England states, the following is an excerpt that was printed in the December 5, 1786 edition of the Litchfield Weekly Monitor:

Yesterday, about three o'clock, P.M. a heavy wind from the N.E. began to threaten us with an approaching storm; at half past three, a thick and incessant shower of snow descended; which, with the wind, seemed to increase all night: This morning the gale was observed at N.W. and, owing to the great quantity of snow, and terrible drifts, every avenue of communication appeared impassible--The storm still continues (1 o'clock) with increasing violence.

Very nice Tidbit

[WaitingForSiren]

I think Dons updated snowfall totals are right on. The models have trended further east and slightly less amplified/deeper with this storm, so the snowfall totals should pile up higher JUST south of NYC. Not exactly the perfect storm.

[countbob]

Initial Snowfall Estimates:

Albany: 3"-7"
Baltimore: 3"-7"
Boston: 8"-14"
Concord: 6"-10"
Hagerstown: 5"-10"
Hartford: 5"-10"
Islip: 3"-7"
New York City: 5"-10"
Newark: 5"-10"
Philadelphia: 4"-8"
Portland: 5"-10"
Providence: 6"-12"
Richmond: 2" or less
Washington, DC:
DCA: 3"-6"
IAD: 3"-7"
Worcester: 8"-14"

Man, we get mostly slop in Richmond. Even thr Great Blizzard of '93 was a bust here.

I want REAL snow!

[JenyEliza]

Man, we get mostly slop in Richmond. Even thr Great Blizzard of '93 was a bust here.

I want REAL snow!

Did you get any snow in '93?

Where I live in the NW suburbs of Atlanta, we had right at a foot.

[ohiostorm]

Local mets at Pittsburgh now forecasting an inch or so overnight tonight with 1 to 2 inches tomorrow with an additional inch Sat night.

[paweatherguy]

Pittsburgh discussion said models teding more south and east.so we will end up with a flurry!!!!! Makes me mad...........

[Dean4Storms]

I was in the Mountains of east TN. during the SS of 93 and you don't want none of that. We had 28 inches with drifts to 10 ft. with winds gusting that night up to 60 mph. I had to dig out of the back door and clear an area for my dog to go take a dump, without power for a week. When it gets that deep it is NO fun to walk through.

[donsutherland1]

Countbob,

Those were my initial estimates from yesterday. This afternoon, I raised Richmond to 2"-5".

[ohiostorm]

Yeah they will lower the totals tonight for Pittsburgh.

[Jim Cantore]

I hope I get 3 feet