Weekend winter storm thread

#61 Postby **lester** » Fri Feb 10, 2006 8:34 pm

Most stations are saying 6-10 near my area :eek:

#62 Postby **Lowpressure** » Fri Feb 10, 2006 10:01 pm

42.8 here with dp at 26. Moisture shield approaching maybe 2-3 hours away. It better cool off, or we are in for the dreaded cold rain.

JenyEliza · #63 Postby **JenyEliza** » Fri Feb 10, 2006 10:04 pm

Lowpressure wrote:42.8 here with dp at 26. Moisture shield approaching maybe 2-3 hours away. It better cool off, or we are in for the dreaded cold rain.

I don't know if it will cool down for you once the rain starts, but here in NW Atlanta suburbs we've been getting light rain for about 1.5-2 hours and have held steady at 48. :cry:

JenyEliza · #64 Postby **JenyEliza** » Fri Feb 10, 2006 10:06 pm

lester88 wrote:Most stations are saying 6-10 near my area

Now, if *I* were saying that about my area. . .

it wouldn't be this ---> :eek:

it would be THIS ----> :woo:

#65 Postby **Lowpressure** » Fri Feb 10, 2006 10:15 pm

10 pm products coming out for Charlotte area. They are colder with increased amounts and added counties. Dissscussion is around lower dp's and NAM doing well with slower progression of precip. CAD a little bigger player than models predicted. 42.3 degrees.

Website · #66 Postby **Brent** » Fri Feb 10, 2006 10:24 pm

JenyEliza wrote:
lester88 wrote:Most stations are saying 6-10 near my area

Now, if *I* were saying that about my area. . .

it wouldn't be this --->

it would be THIS ---->

No it'd be cautious optimism from me... too many times of being burned. I remember a 3-6 inch projected snow back in 2000(it was Super Bowl weekend which was in Atlanta) that turned out to be barely an inch for me and turned into an ice storm for Atlanta.

JenyEliza · #67 Postby **JenyEliza** » Fri Feb 10, 2006 10:30 pm

Brent wrote:
JenyEliza wrote:
lester88 wrote:Most stations are saying 6-10 near my area

Now, if *I* were saying that about my area. . .

it wouldn't be this --->

it would be THIS ---->

No it'd be cautious optimism from me... too many times of being burned. I remember a 3-6 inch projected snow back in 2000(it was Super Bowl weekend which was in Atlanta) that turned out to be barely an inch for me and turned into an ice storm for Atlanta.

Yes....that was the non-predicted ice storm that slapped around our house, my car and my wallet really good. :cry:

Ended up getting a new roof out of it, so who can complain? :roll:

Jim Cantore · #68 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Fri Feb 10, 2006 10:34 pm

They're calling for 9-14 here

The GFS adds up with that

could be a big one 8-)

Website · #69 Postby **Brent** » Fri Feb 10, 2006 10:39 pm

0z GFS is running...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_012l.gif 7am ET tomorrow

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_018l.gif 1pm ET tomorrow(I really like that)

Jim Cantore · #70 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Fri Feb 10, 2006 10:51 pm

JenyEliza wrote:
Brent wrote:
JenyEliza wrote:
lester88 wrote:Most stations are saying 6-10 near my area

Now, if *I* were saying that about my area. . .

it wouldn't be this --->

it would be THIS ---->

No it'd be cautious optimism from me... too many times of being burned. I remember a 3-6 inch projected snow back in 2000(it was Super Bowl weekend which was in Atlanta) that turned out to be barely an inch for me and turned into an ice storm for Atlanta.

Yes....that was the non-predicted ice storm that slapped around our house, my car and my wallet really good.

Ended up getting a new roof out of it, so who can complain?

I remember march 2001 when we were forcasted to get 27-31 inches and we got 4 inches, 2 of it being sleet and add an inch of rain

biggest overhype in U.S forcast history

Website · #71 Postby **Brent** » Fri Feb 10, 2006 10:55 pm

Hurricane Floyd wrote:I remember march 2001 when we were forcasted to get 27-31 inches and we got 4 inches, 2 of it being sleet and add an inch of rain

biggest overhype in U.S forcast history

I remember that...

Website · #72 Postby **Brent** » Fri Feb 10, 2006 10:57 pm

Look at this... snow in Tampa? :lol:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_060l.gif

Jim Cantore · #73 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Fri Feb 10, 2006 10:58 pm

Brent wrote:Look at this... snow in Tampa?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_060l.gif

lol

Jim Cantore · #74 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Fri Feb 10, 2006 10:58 pm

I'm just one of those guys who wishes for storms like 96 lol

days off from school :cheesy:

Website · #75 Postby **Brent** » Fri Feb 10, 2006 11:23 pm

Hurricane Floyd wrote:I'm just one of those guys who wishes for storms like 96 lol

days off from school

Too bad this is coming on the weekend.

Jim Cantore · #76 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Fri Feb 10, 2006 11:27 pm

Might get it anyway

last year we got 12.5" on a saturday and I got monday off

Website · #77 Postby **Brent** » Fri Feb 10, 2006 11:31 pm

WOW... shocking

<not> :roll:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1021 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2006

.UPDATE...

GETTING READY TO ADJUST THE FORECAST. IT IS NOT LOOKING GOOD FOR
OUR SNOW CHANCES TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
LOOKING AT CURRENT LAPS DATA...THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SHOW
THAT WE ARE STILL TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY SNOW IN OUR AREA. IT
WILL EVENTUALLY GET COLD ENOUGH OVER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES...BUT THE
QUESTION WILL BE IF ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT. THE MAIN BULK OF
PRECIP IS CURRENTLY MOVING WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR. I STILL THINK
THAT OUR NORTHWEST ZONES WILL SEE SOME SNOW...BUT I`M STARTING TO
THINK THAT 1 INCH ACCUMULATION MAY NOT HAPPEN. WE WILL BE DROPPING
BLOUNT...ETOWAH AND CHEROKEE FROM THE SNOW ADVISORY. IT WILL STAY
TOO WARM OVERNIGHT TO SUPPORT ANY SNOW. WE`LL LEAVE THE REST ALONE
FOR NOW.

THAT IS ALL FOR NOW. UPDATED FORECAST WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...SNOW ADVISORY FOR MARION...LAMAR...WINSTON...FAYETTE AND
WALKER FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM.
_________________

#78 Postby **btangy** » Sat Feb 11, 2006 2:01 am

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
903 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2006

...A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RHODE ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN AXIS OF 8 TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS TO TAUNTON...BOSTON NORTH TO THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.

AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM SUNDAY MORNING...IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT SNOWFALL RATES WILL REACH 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES ALONG WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH POOR VISIBILITY SUNDAY.

00Z NAM
http://wind.mit.edu/~btangy/Bufkit/KBOS/ETA_PRECIP.png
http://wind.mit.edu/~btangy/Bufkit/KBOS/ETA_WINDbot.png

Gust potential is definitely in the 50mph range since it looks like the atmosphere will be well mixed from the surface to 900mb. .7-.8 in of liquid equivalent with 15 to 1 ratio will yield about a foot of snow. Will have to watch for mesoscale banding and possible ocean enhancement. The WRF hinted at this.

#79 Postby **Lowpressure** » Sat Feb 11, 2006 7:23 am

37 degrees and dropping with the dreaded cold rain.

LWX calling for up to 19 inches around Fredericksburg, with Thundersnow tonight!

#80 Postby **CronkPSU** » Sat Feb 11, 2006 8:43 am

what are they calling for in the mountains of the poconos? Grew up in Shohola (little town north of Milford up on top of the mountains), use to love these storms, common for us to 26-30 inches from these noreaster type storms

Weekend winter storm thread

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