Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

Winter Weather Discussion

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Extremeweatherguy
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#1401 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Feb 10, 2006 8:18 pm

Tyler wrote:Wow, just wow @ 18z GFS.

By the end of next week, the GFS shows a 1056+ MB high in NW Canada (!!!) at days 6 and 7. And this time, Canada is COLD. I hate using the 18z GFS past 84 hours, but its interesting nonetheless... Eye candy for those who want a significant arctic outbreak.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _162.shtml

It does go along with the ideas of one more shot of canadian air before spring however, so who knows.
this next shot of cold may out-do this current one by A LOT! This next shot looks like it has potential to be a February arctic blast to remeber. Snow and cold both look to be a possibility next week and next weekend. This first shot looks to just be a set up for the next...this first one sets down the snow; cools the soil; and then the next one modifys much less and comes from much colder air. I think this next one would definitley be capable of teens and lower 20s and may be even a snowstorm. A 1056mb high is insane! If this happens...prepare for sub-freezing highs and sub-25F lows Houston! Many more days of weather watching, temperature debates, and model analyzing to come... :wink:
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#1402 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Feb 10, 2006 8:23 pm

Here are a few points from JB's evening post:

-From late next week onward...it will be winter like you read about in "Arctic Annual Magazine" (hint: COLD).

-It will warm next week in the south, but the warmth WILL NOT last. Arctic air will come back stronger and harder.
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#1403 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Fri Feb 10, 2006 8:25 pm

The front came in down here about 5:30 PM with wind gust up to 50 Mph. I went out to pick up some dinner for the family and my pickup truck therometer droped from 74 degrees to 63 degrees in just 10 minutes as the front came in.

But it came in dry. What's new? We are in a fricken drought. Right? :cry: :cry:
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#1404 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Feb 10, 2006 8:26 pm

cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:The front came in down here about 5:30 PM with wind gust up to 50 Mph. I went out to pick up some dinner for the family and my pickup truck therometer droped from 74 degrees to 63 degrees in just 10 minutes as the front came in.

But it came in dry. What's new? We are in a fricken drought. Right? :cry: :cry:
I still can not believe you guys got no rain down there. That seems very weird. It poured here pretty much all day.
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#1405 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Feb 10, 2006 9:36 pm

Current weather at my house:

Temp: mid 40s
Wind: 10-20mph, gusting to 30mph
Sky: Mostly cloudy
**It has dropped 20F since earlier this afternoon**
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#1406 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Feb 10, 2006 9:45 pm

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... op-12.html
^^Cool water vapor loop. Really outlines this cold front well.^^

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_sfc_map.html
^^Here is a good surface map link^^

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/UA_C ... _Day.shtml
^^VERY COOL 14-day loop of surface conditions^^
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#1407 Postby Portastorm » Fri Feb 10, 2006 9:52 pm

Extremeweatherguy writes: Many more days of weather watching, temperature debates, and model analyzing to come...

I don't know whether to laugh or cry! :roll:

Oh, mid 40s here in Austin right now and the north breeze is still fairly stiff at 10-20 mph.
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#1408 Postby Brent » Fri Feb 10, 2006 10:02 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Many more days of weather watching, temperature debates, and model analyzing to come...


Lovely. :roll:
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#1409 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Feb 10, 2006 10:10 pm

What's this?

Part of New Orleans AFD:

ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO DETAIL THE COLD
WEATHER BOUT FOR THE WEEKEND. STILL BELIEVE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SNOW FLURRIES OR SMALL SNOW GRAINS FALLING FROM ENTRAPPED CLOUD
DECK UNDER ARCTIC FRONTAL INVERSION SATURDAY EVENING AS SECOND
SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATES INTO THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH.
THIS WILL BE A SHORT DURATION WINDOW AND NOT AMOUNT TO ANYTHING
CONSEQUENTIAL EXCEPT FOR THE RARE ASTHETIC INTEREST THIS FAR
SOUTH.



hmm. Wonder why they are expecting this and Houston is not? Too bad. It would have been fun to get a few flurries tomorrow evening. It would be cool though if something happened where we were able to get a few flurries here in Houston too...but I doubt it.
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#1410 Postby ROCK » Fri Feb 10, 2006 10:15 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Tyler wrote:Wow, just wow @ 18z GFS.

By the end of next week, the GFS shows a 1056+ MB high in NW Canada (!!!) at days 6 and 7. And this time, Canada is COLD. I hate using the 18z GFS past 84 hours, but its interesting nonetheless... Eye candy for those who want a significant arctic outbreak.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _162.shtml

It does go along with the ideas of one more shot of canadian air before spring however, so who knows.
this next shot of cold may out-do this current one by A LOT! This next shot looks like it has potential to be a February arctic blast to remeber. Snow and cold both look to be a possibility next week and next weekend. This first shot looks to just be a set up for the next...this first one sets down the snow; cools the soil; and then the next one modifys much less and comes from much colder air. I think this next one would definitley be capable of teens and lower 20s and may be even a snowstorm. A 1056mb high is insane! If this happens...prepare for sub-freezing highs and sub-25F lows Houston! Many more days of weather watching, temperature debates, and model analyzing to come... :wink:




In the words of the infamous Chief Brody....."We are going to need a bigger thread"...... :lol: :lol: :lol:
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#1411 Postby ocracoke » Fri Feb 10, 2006 10:34 pm

One more post for me and its back to lurkerdom again. The point earlier today was that the NWS didn't seem to be getting much respect from certain members in this thread. Just remember that they have far more experience in these situations than the majority of amateurs would. What I'm saying is that it can't hurt to try to understand the reasoning behind NWS decisions if they don't agree with your own opinion. Professional mets really do put a lot of effort into making these forecasts, and draw on their vast knowledge of atmospheric dynamics and meteorological principles. That is all.
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#1412 Postby wxman22 » Fri Feb 10, 2006 11:32 pm

I was just looking at Dr. Neil Frank on 11 news ande he said he was concerned about some precip around the Corpus Christi area. He sid it may brush or skirt us during dawn.....
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#1413 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Feb 10, 2006 11:38 pm

moisture in southern Texas is heading our way (according to Dr. Neil Frank) and I am thinking that we could possibly see another sleet/rain mix event here in Houston tonight when it reaches us. Why? Well upper air temps. are rapidly falling and dewpoints are also reapidly falling. By the time the precip. gets here...any place with a dewpoint below 32F may be able to see a few sleet pellets mixed with the rain (may be even a snowflake) due to evaporative cooling. Now the chance of this (sleet/snow mixing with rain) is pretty low; But hey...it's something to watch. :D

EDIT: also...I am noticing an area of precip. and clouds over the panhandle which is also interesting...but not forecast to affect us :( . The weird thing is that here we are in TX wishing for some snow...and now in TAMPA, FL their AFD is saying that they may get some (snow) on Monday! I mean what are the chances! How weird. The ironic thing is that I just moved here from FL a little while ago.. :x I guess I'll keep wishing and hoping that the next front can deliver the snow..key word there is *wishing*..I just hope that 1055+mb high that the models is predicting plays out (and that the cold can mix with the precip).
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#1414 Postby Tyler » Sat Feb 11, 2006 5:22 am

Um, I think we have BIG problems on the horizon folks...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml

Edit: Ok, this just looks really wierd...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _162.shtml

Here is a map:
Better have a coat! :eek:

Image
Last edited by Tyler on Sat Feb 11, 2006 5:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#1415 Postby Tyler » Sat Feb 11, 2006 5:33 am

Wow, this looks like Feb 1983. Zonal flow but with such a strong high pressure, the cold air is pushed south...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml

Interesting, to say the least. Not saying we are going to see another Feb 1983, but I think winter may not be done just yet... One last strong cold front probably next weekend. How cold remains to be seen...

Heh, snow flurries in Houston at 174...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _174.shtml

Well, at 174, the really cold air does make it here, but something doesn't look right... This has my eyebrows raised, the GFS has hinted at this, and the cold air makes it farther south every run... hmmm. Euro shows something like this as well.. At least we have REALLY cold air to track this time! :D With a piece of the polar vortex dropping into the northern plains, you won't have to worry about warm temps, or snowpack for that matter...
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#1416 Postby wxman22 » Sat Feb 11, 2006 6:07 am

Tyler I,ve noticed that to. It also seems that for the last several runs the GFS has been showing possibly frozen precip next weekend if this trend continues we may have to start another snow thread for Texas.....
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#1417 Postby Portastorm » Sat Feb 11, 2006 8:14 am

Definitely going to be interesting heading into next weekend. Overrunning pattern appears to develop over much of Texas with a cold airmass in place. :eek:

Here is a very nice forecast discussion written this morning out of Norman, OK:

ALL INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A LONGWAVE PATTERN CHANGE
FROM THE CURRENT HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED WESTERN NORTH-AMERICAN RIDGE AND
EASTERN TROF TO A BROAD LONGWAVE TROF FROM NEAR HUDSONS BAY SW-
WARD INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. FAST W TO WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP
AT RELATIVELY LOW LATITUDES. UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FROM
VICINITY GULF OF ALASKA NE-WARD INTO ALASKA AND NW CANADA. THIS
GENERAL PATTERN CAN MAKE LIFE MISERABLE THIS TIME OF YEAR IN A
LOT OF PLACES - INCLUDING THE S PLAINS - AS THE HIGH-LATITUDE
RIDGE PROVIDES THE COLD AIR WHILE IMPULSES IN THE LOW-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES PROVIDE THE LIFT. THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS
ECMWF AND UKMET ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN TRANSITION TAKING PLACE BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THAT AGREEMENT
MAY BE JUST A MATTER OF HAPPENSTANCE THO...AS RUN-TO-RUN
CONTINUITY HAS BEEN SHAKY AT BEST. LARGE-SCALE TRENDS SUPPORT A
BUILDUP OF ARCTIC AIR OVER CENTRAL CANADA BY MIDWEEK...WHICH WILL
THEN MIGRATE S AND E TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CONUS FROM THE
PLAINS AND N ROCKIES EASTWARD. ONCE THIS COLD AIR BECOMES
ESTABLISHED...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF POSSIBILITIES. DEVIL IS IN
THE DETAILS - AS ALWAYS - BUT THERE IS ENOUGH POTENTIAL IN THE
DEVELOPING LARGE SCALE-PATTERN TO WARRANT THE INTRODUCTION OF LOW
POPS AT THIS TIME FROM LATE THURSDAY ONWARD. THE INTRUSION OF COLD
AIR MEANS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WINTERY PRECIP WITH TIME.
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#1418 Postby Johnny » Sat Feb 11, 2006 8:59 am

Well the NWS has put a 5 to 10 mph wind in our forecast for overnight tonight. If this plays out then we won't hit the lows that some of us have been forecasting.
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#1419 Postby ROCK » Sat Feb 11, 2006 9:21 am

Johnny wrote:Well the NWS has put a 5 to 10 mph wind in our forecast for overnight tonight. If this plays out then we won't hit the lows that some of us have been forecasting.



exactly....I am still thinking around 30-32 at the airport for a brief period tonight. There won't be IDEAL conditions for radiational cooling so further inland we won't make to the freezing mark. So much for protecting plants, pets, and pipes......so hard to get really cold weather down here. Almost like a cat 5.
Last edited by ROCK on Sat Feb 11, 2006 9:59 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#1420 Postby gboudx » Sat Feb 11, 2006 9:26 am

DFW mentions wintry precip possibility for next weekend.

RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS
WARM MOIST AIR OVERRUNS TO THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS NEAR THE
SURFACE. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING...
WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO...OR BELOW...FREEZING BY
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS CURRENTLY INDICATING A FREEZING RAIN EVENT
ACROSS NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE MANY MODEL RUNS BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
WE WILL NEED TO SEE SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS BEFORE CONFIDENCE
INCREASES FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR NORTH TEXAS
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