Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[drezee]

The key word on the next system is ICE!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well the NWS has put a 5 to 10 mph wind in our forecast for overnight tonight. If this plays out then we won't hit the lows that some of us have been forecasting.

yeah, I am starting to worry about that too. They say they are going above guidance tonight for the temps. The problem will be if the winds do manage to die down. It is sometimes hard to tell if they will or not. we will have to wait and see... Either way; I still think 20s north of I-10 sound reasonable.

[ROCK]

Well the NWS has put a 5 to 10 mph wind in our forecast for overnight tonight. If this plays out then we won't hit the lows that some of us have been forecasting.

yeah, I am starting to worry about that too. They say they are going above guidance tonight for the temps. The problem will be if the winds do manage to die down. It is sometimes hard to tell if they will or not. we will have to wait and see... Either way; I still think 20s north of I-10 sound reasonable.

worry about how low it gets? I hate the cold....give me spring and a good TS and I am happy...

I think upper 20's are possible but north of the airport. Now Conroe which a freak of nature will get into the 20's IMO.

Real windy here south of Houston with 50F and its 10:30.....Might get up to the mid-50's today. I just can't see a 20+ degree drop over night if the winds don't settle.

[Brent]

Where is the arctic air?

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/r ... c_temp.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

just checked out the latest conditions at Hooks airport (closest airport to me) and it is 48F, with winds gusting to 25mph, and the dew points are down to 18F!!! WOW! That is some extremely dry air! IF we can manage good radiational cooling tonight, then we will definitely see lower to middle 20s up this way (including Hooks and IAH)..I will be watching the wind and skies tonight for sure to see if that happens . With a few minor flaws to radiational cooling though (as the NWS currently expects), then I would still expect mid 20s in Conroe and Hooks, upper 20s at IAH and 32F down to Hobby. BTW, I want to remind everyone that there is a wind advisory in effect through the afternoon and gusts could hit 35+mph at times. This also means that even in the lower to middle 50s...it will only feel like the 40s all day. Bundle up!

[Furious George]

Where is the arctic air?

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/r ... c_temp.gif

Good question. I'll have to say this first arctic front was a little overhyped. A lot of people thought the NWS was crazy for not forecasting IAH lows in the lower 20's this weekend. They could have chosen to do that after some model runs, but chose not to jump to strong in any one direction. Kudos to them - they seemed to have handled this rationally.

However, just b/c we've had some disappointments doesn't mean things will always be like this. Who knows what next weekend may bring?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am having my doubts bout whether we will reach the middle 50s today. Strong winds are only allowing for very slow temperature rises, and with temperatures of only 49-51F right now...I would only expect highs of 52-54F. Also...the dewpoints continue to be very low, so if we can manage that good radiational cooling...I still think 20-25F readings are possible for Hooks and Conroe...and 23-27F at Bush. we'll see... another interesting feature is an area of clouds and flurries that has developed over oklahoma and arkansas. IF any of that can work down this far south...then with such dry air and temps. falling below 45F later this afternoon...a few snow flurries would be possible. There is probably less than a 5% chance of this happening..but something to watch none the less.

EDIT: (1:04pm) Just took a temperature reading in my backyard and it is 49F. Also...latest dew point at Hooks airport is 15F! That is some VERY dry air.

[Johnny]

EWG, can you post a radar image of the precip up towards OK and Arkansas? I don't see it.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looking at the latest trends though, I do not think this will reach us. The precip. seems to have an eastern component to the southward motion. Who knows though...may be some more precip. will develop back to the SW of this stuff...doubt it..but it would be cool if it did.

[Extremeweatherguy]

From the NWS in Houston:

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
309 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-121000-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
309 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...

A COLD DRY AIRMASS HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AS WINDS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY AND WILL
EVENTUALLY DIP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AS YOU
GO FURTHER INLAND FROM THE COAST. LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF A SEGNO
TO TRINITY LINE CAN EXPECT READINGS BELOW 32 DEGREES FOR 7 TO 10
HOURS OVERNIGHT. AREAS NORTH OF A MOSS HILL TO CONROE TO BRENHAM LINE
CAN EXPECT 6 TO 8 HOURS...THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR 5 TO 7 HOURS...
AND INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES 2 TO 5 HOURS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT PLANTS...PETS..PIPES AND
PEOPLE.

COVER SENSITIVE PLANTS OR MOVE THEM INSIDE. KEEP PETS INDOORS AS MUCH
AS POSSIBLE. IF THIS IS NOT POSSIBLE...MAKE SURE OUTDOOR PETS HAVE
WARM DRY SHELTER...AND PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FOOD AND FRESH UNFROZEN
WATER. RESIDENTS...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN RURAL LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 10...MAY WANT TO WRAP EXPOSED OUTDOOR PIPES. MAKE
FREQUENT CHECKS ON THE ELDERLY. IF YOU MUST BE OUTSIDE...REMEMBER THAT
SEVERAL LAYERS OF CLOTHES WILL KEEP YOUR WARMER THAN A SINGLE HEAVY
COAT. A HAT IS ALSO IMPORTANT AS 20 PERCENT OF BODY HEAT LOSS IS
THROUGH THE HEAD.

BE PARTICULARLY CAREFUL WITH PORTABLE HEATERS...THERE IS DANGER OF
FIRE OR POISONOUS FUMES.

So basically...most of north Houston should see a 5-7 hr. freeze from this...but remember if you are in a colder location (cold pocket) you may see 7-10 hrs. easily. Cover all those plants and exposed pipes! Stay warm everyone! Also...the NWS has lowered expected minimum temps. tonight to 28F at IAH (down from 31F earlier)...so north of I-10 expect mid to upper 20s for sure.

My latest temperature prediction:

Hooks = 23-26F
IAH - 25-28F
Hobby = 29-32F
Conroe = 21-24F
Downtown = 28-31F

***Remember if you are near these locations but in a "cold pocket", you may see temps. up to 2-4 degrees colder!***

[Tyler]

Wait, why do we have two threads going on this? Which thread should I post in...

[Tyler]

From the NWS:
Tonight...Clear and cold. Lows in the upper 20s. Northwest winds diminishing to 5 mph.

Sunday...Sunny. Highs around 60. West winds 5 to 10 mph.

Sunday Night...Clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

Monday...Sunny. Highs around 60. North winds 5 to 10 mph.

Monday Night...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Southeast winds around 5 mph.

[LAwxrgal]

I am having my doubts bout whether we will reach the middle 50s today. Strong winds are only allowing for very slow temperature rises, and with temperatures of only 49-51F right now...I would only expect highs of 52-54F. Also...the dewpoints continue to be very low, so if we can manage that good radiational cooling...I still think 20-25F readings are possible for Hooks and Conroe...and 23-27F at Bush. we'll see... another interesting feature is an area of clouds and flurries that has developed over oklahoma and arkansas. IF any of that can work down this far south...then with such dry air and temps. falling below 45F later this afternoon...a few snow flurries would be possible. There is probably less than a 5% chance of this happening..but something to watch none the less.

EDIT: (1:04pm) Just took a temperature reading in my backyard and it is 49F. Also...latest dew point at Hooks airport is 15F! That is some VERY dry air.

Our high of 52 was reached after midnight. It's been in the 40s all day with very stiff winds, even though the sun is shining bright.

[Johnny]

It got up to 52 here at my house in central Montgomery County but the temperature is now dropping as of 4:50 pm. It is now 47 and dropping.

[ROCK]

Dropped to 51F, winds still howling....I expect at least 32-34 tonight. Not to worried.

[plainsman]

gboudz we may have to start a new thread a north texas ok ark south ks south misoosri thread for next weeks icestorm??? since most people on here are from south texas south louisina and florida here a great chance of an ice storm in dallas ft.worth metro... perfect overrunning situations.. lots of models are hinting towards it.. were do for an ice storm!!!

[JonathanBelles]

gboudz we may have to start a new thread a north texas ok ark south ks south misoosri thread for next weeks icestorm??? since most people on here are from south texas south louisina and florida here a great chance of an ice storm in dallas ft.worth metro... perfect overrunning situations.. lots of models are hinting towards it.. were do for an ice storm!!!

where ur u getting ur models??

[Extremeweatherguy]

just stepped outside and the home thermometer is now reading 44F. The winds have also died down a lot since earlier. We were getting 30mph+ gusts, but now I would say 15-20mph gusts max. Also, latest Hooks airport dewpoints are 14F. IF winds can die down, then I am VERY worried that we are going to get quite cold tonight.

Oh...BTW...the high at Hooks and IAH today was just 51F...that is 4-5F lower than the NWS forecast called for.

[Johnny]

42 now and dropping.

[Extremeweatherguy]

winds have dropped off to 6mph or below. We are being set up for very good radiational cooling.