(New!!) Cold for the Deep South (Models, Maps, Discussion)

[Johnny]

Well this first mini arctic front has come through and has cooled us off a bit. I think it's time to start a new thread.

It looks like a more interesting scenario is shaping up for us come next weekend. It looks like the possibilities of a 1050+ mb arctic high will slide into the CONUS and effect us. How much will it effect us? Also, it looks like moisture should not be a problem either. What are y'all seeing boys and girls?

[aggiecutter]

1052mb high is entering the country next Saturday. The air should be downhere by late Sunday or early Monday. GFS and EURO are in agreement on this...

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ecmna.108.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml

[Kennethb]

Could be that this next surge supressed somewhat the coldest temps expected.

Question is does this cold make this far south? Not too much support yet, but will be another fun week to watch. My guess is that the cold will make it down south.

I agree time for a new thread.

[vbhoutex]

Definitely needed a new thread!!!!

I'm still waiting for the models to show it really getting this far south. I hope it does.

[Johnny]

It seems like the models want to depict a zonal flow come next week across the CONUS. With such a strong arctic high pressure sitting in Canada, it will drop south anways...zonal flow or not. Models have a hard time grasping this concept.

[Extremeweatherguy]

If we can get that 1050+mb high that the models are showing...then I have no doubt in my mind that we will be in for a big blast of arctic air...especially with how cold it will be in southern Canada. This kind of situation could set us up for a record breaking Feb. cold snap, so it will be something to watch for sure. I just hope we can get some snow out of it.

[MiamiensisWx]

It seems like the models want to depict a zonal flow come next week across the CONUS. With such a strong arctic high pressure sitting in Canada, it will drop south anways...zonal flow or not. Models have a hard time grasping this concept.

I agree. The pattern is extremely favorable for cold air to dip southward.

[aggiecutter]

The Ensembles keep it cold til the end of the month...

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... times.html

[Burn1]

Question guys.....Right now long range isn't showing cold air to reach Southeast Tx on this go around......What are you seeing that could change this.......

Also what happened to lower to mid 20's, even upper teens around Houston and adjacent area?

[Tyler]

I am sitting at a cold 48 degrees right now. Still scratching my head on why the NWS wants mid 50s...

[Tyler]

Here is a great post by wxman57 on the KHOU message board. I'm sure he doesn't mind me posting this here:

Tyler, what you're seeing on those maps (and the EC as well) is a building ridge over Alaska extending to the Polar regions. Arctic air will be moving southward into the U.S. as the ridge builds (unlike today's air which is not really that cold). The GFS doesn't handle such air well on the surface map, though it really doesn't look too bad here. Similar to the EC in fact. What may be in error on the GFS is pushing the base of the trof too far west over the west coast.

Now once that Arctic air is on the move, it won't stop before moving into the Gulf. I've seen upper-level patterns that had a deep low over Utah (Nov, 1993) but Arctic air slides right down lee of the Rockies to Houston. The MRF (at the time) had the front up in Nebraska but the cold air was in the Gulf from 48 hours out. So once that Arctic air begins moving into Montana, it won't matter much what the upper flow is, it's coming south.

Here, check out the 00Z EC, which is pretty close to the GFS but a little faster with the next front, pushing it into Houston Friday evening:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

Take a look at this panel showing the extremely cold air at 850mb coming down next week. Compare it to today:

Today:
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... emp_24.gif

Next Friday evening:
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_168.gif

That's MINUS 35C air coming down next week! Today's airmass is at -14C.

More great analysis of the upcoming pattern:

Last night's front was just a taste of slightly below normal winter temps across the U.S. While the flow pattern is one that can certainly bring the most bitter Arctic air to the Gulf coast, the air in west-central Canada was just only marginally cold this past week. But that's about to change. Coldest air in Canada this past week was around -14C at 850mb. But cross-Polar flow had only just begun. The airmass that was over Siberia is moving across the Pole this week, thus the short rise in the AO (Arctic Oscillation). The EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) is set to go strongly negative this coming week, just as it was in late November/early December. That should signial a building ridge up the Gulf of Alaska and stronger cross-Polar flow.

Bitterly cold air will build across Canada over the coming week. Models are indicating temps down to -35C approaching the Montana border by Friday evening:
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_168.gif
full loop: http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.ecmwf850t.html

The dense, Arctic airmass over southern Canada should sag southward into the U.S. by Tuesday evening. Leading edge of the cold air should reach the Red River Thursday evening and Houston the next evening. This will be the first of multiple surges over the coming weeks. Look up in Canada on the 168hr EC, another surge is evident.

The UKMET sees it as well:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHEMI_0z/f144.gif

Heck, even the GFS sees it:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_126m.gif

As JB (AccuWeather's JB) was pointing out yesterday, even the ensembles all see this same flow pattern. There's universal agreement among all long-range models on the coming pattern, something that doesn't happen too often.

Don't be too concerned that the upper trof axis will remain to our northwest late next week:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_126m.gif

This is typical with major Arctic outbreaks. The dense, cold air will sink southward regardless of the upper flow. But there will likely be BIG problems with the GFS over the coming week. The GFS will look at the upper flow and try to drive the Arctic air back to the north as a warm front. Does it every time (the GFS, that is). But cold, shallow Arctic air doesn't behave like other airmasses, it'll drop south to the Gulf even with southwest flow aloft. I've seen the GFS blow temperature forecasts by 20, 30, or even 40 degrees in some cases when it tries to drive the Arctic air back to the north. I'm not saying that's the case yet, but it's something to watch for.

So, what we need to do is to monitor the air moving into Canada over the next 3-4 days. Is it REALLY as cold as the models are projecting? If it is, then there may be seriious implications for the Deep South. The presence of Arctic air with southwest flow aloft means we may see a series of snow/ice storms across the Plains/Midwest/east coast over the next week or two. It's quite possible, if not likely, that the snow/ice will dip into at least the Dallas area. And it could develop farther south. Of course, it's generally quite difficult to get snow/ice to the Gulf coast, as all conditions need to be perfect, so I wouldn't forecast such an occurrence based upon current data.

One thing to keep in mind is that the 2nd/3rd week of February is typically the time of winter where the Gulf coast is most likely to see snow/ice. This is the very pattern that could produce snow down to the Houston area, but we need to have a series of events happen first. Like build a snow pack in the Central to Northern Plains over the coming week. With warm, dry ground to our north, it'll be difficult to get cold air that's thick enough for ice much south of Dallas.

It's going to be an interesting next two weeks!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Question guys.....Right now long range isn't showing cold air to reach Southeast Tx on this go around......What are you seeing that could change this.......

Also what happened to lower to mid 20's, even upper teens around Houston and adjacent area?

We are seeing a massive 1050mb+ high and we are seeing extremely cold air in Canada. When you mix those two together...you get an arctic outbreak. Also...the lower to middle 20s are still a possibility. With dewpoints in the teens IF we can get good radiational cooling..then I have no doubt that IAH will be below 28 and Hooks below 25. If we do not get good radiational cooling, then still 28-31F at IAH and 25-28F at Hooks. We will have to see how things play out tonight.

Current Dew Points:

Hooks = 16F
IAH = 19F
Hobby = 16F
Conroe = 18F

[ROCK]

I am sitting at a cold 48 degrees right now. Still scratching my head on why the NWS wants mid 50s...

Hey Tyler, I am at 53F here in Pearland.....lots of wind 10-20mph....it will be a struggle to get below freezing down here tonight.

[beachbum_al]

All I know is that I am sitting in South Alabama near the water and it is windy and freezing cold. I am suuming that by next week and the following week it is going to be very cold because it is Mardi Gras down here in my town. So keep me updated! Okay!

[Tyler]

I am sitting at a cold 48 degrees right now. Still scratching my head on why the NWS wants mid 50s...

Hey Tyler, I am at 53F here in Pearland.....lots of wind 10-20mph....it will be a struggle to get below freezing down here tonight.

I don't think its going to be a struggle at all. Winds will relax significantly this evening, probably down to around 5 mph. It will get down to freezing easily.

Expecting mid 20s here. Its going to be cold tonight!

[Tyler]

Huge temp bust from the NWS for College Station. They forecasted mid 50s (no idea why) and they are only at 48. Just an indication of how cold this airmass really is...

Huge temp bust for me as well, I went with upper 40s today, clouds didn't stick around like I thought they would, so it looks like the high at IAH today will be 51. Still, its no upper 50s like some people thought we would reach around here...

[Extremeweatherguy]

hey guys...this wind has really picked up here over the last few minutes. I would say 40mph+ gusts. One of my palm trees in my backyard has even begun to tilt! I agree though that winds will relax tonight and allow for good cooling to take place.

[Tyler]

Special weather statement regarding extremely cold weather tonight:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
309 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-121000-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
309 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...

A COLD DRY AIRMASS HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AS WINDS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY AND WILL
EVENTUALLY DIP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AS YOU
GO FURTHER INLAND FROM THE COAST. LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF A SEGNO
TO TRINITY LINE CAN EXPECT READINGS BELOW 32 DEGREES FOR 7 TO 10
HOURS OVERNIGHT. AREAS NORTH OF A MOSS HILL TO CONROE TO BRENHAM LINE
CAN EXPECT 6 TO 8 HOURS...THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR 5 TO 7 HOURS...
AND INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES 2 TO 5 HOURS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT PLANTS...PETS..PIPES AND
PEOPLE.

COVER SENSITIVE PLANTS OR MOVE THEM INSIDE. KEEP PETS INDOORS AS MUCH
AS POSSIBLE. IF THIS IS NOT POSSIBLE...MAKE SURE OUTDOOR PETS HAVE
WARM DRY SHELTER...AND PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FOOD AND FRESH UNFROZEN
WATER. RESIDENTS...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN RURAL LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 10...MAY WANT TO WRAP EXPOSED OUTDOOR PIPES. MAKE
FREQUENT CHECKS ON THE ELDERLY. IF YOU MUST BE OUTSIDE...REMEMBER THAT
SEVERAL LAYERS OF CLOTHES WILL KEEP YOUR WARMER THAN A SINGLE HEAVY
COAT. A HAT IS ALSO IMPORTANT AS 20 PERCENT OF BODY HEAT LOSS IS
THROUGH THE HEAD.

BE PARTICULARLY CAREFUL WITH PORTABLE HEATERS...THERE IS DANGER OF
FIRE OR POISONOUS FUMES.

$$

Stay warm tonight folks! Freezing temps for everyone except immediate coastal areas!

[millerblizzard1]

i am in west central MO and it has been snowing off and on all day. Not what was predicted. Also, it is 27 degrees at 3:00 pm in the afternoon. Look out south of me. this air is colder than expected!

[southerngale]

I hit 50° briefly but it has stayed around 45° to 48° most of the afternoon. However, NWS was dead on as the official high reached 53°.
Dew points are very low and the wind chill factor makes it feel even colder. Headed back out in it...should be really cold when I get home later.


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
332 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-112345-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
332 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006

...COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...

CANADIAN AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS STATES AND
DOWN INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED
TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 50S WHILE DEW POINTS ARE HOVERING IN THE
UPPER TEENS.

AS THE SUNSETS THIS EVENING WINDS WILL TAPER OFF A BIT ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
STREAM INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND THE COMBINATION IS
EXPECTED TO HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED MUCH HIGHER ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARMUP TOMORROW MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.