(New!!) Cold for the Deep South (Models, Maps, Discussion)

[Extremeweatherguy]

that's weird. The NWS is Baeumont is saying clouds are coming in, and the NWS in Houston is saying clear skies. Truthfully though I am hoping for the clouds...because then may be we could squeeze out a flurry or two!

[ROCK]

Special weather statement regarding extremely cold weather tonight:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
309 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-121000-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
309 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...

A COLD DRY AIRMASS HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AS WINDS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY AND WILL
EVENTUALLY DIP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AS YOU
GO FURTHER INLAND FROM THE COAST. LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF A SEGNO
TO TRINITY LINE CAN EXPECT READINGS BELOW 32 DEGREES FOR 7 TO 10
HOURS OVERNIGHT. AREAS NORTH OF A MOSS HILL TO CONROE TO BRENHAM LINE
CAN EXPECT 6 TO 8 HOURS...THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR 5 TO 7 HOURS...
AND INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES 2 TO 5 HOURS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT PLANTS...PETS..PIPES AND
PEOPLE.

COVER SENSITIVE PLANTS OR MOVE THEM INSIDE. KEEP PETS INDOORS AS MUCH
AS POSSIBLE. IF THIS IS NOT POSSIBLE...MAKE SURE OUTDOOR PETS HAVE
WARM DRY SHELTER...AND PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FOOD AND FRESH UNFROZEN
WATER. RESIDENTS...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN RURAL LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 10...MAY WANT TO WRAP EXPOSED OUTDOOR PIPES. MAKE
FREQUENT CHECKS ON THE ELDERLY. IF YOU MUST BE OUTSIDE...REMEMBER THAT
SEVERAL LAYERS OF CLOTHES WILL KEEP YOUR WARMER THAN A SINGLE HEAVY
COAT. A HAT IS ALSO IMPORTANT AS 20 PERCENT OF BODY HEAT LOSS IS
THROUGH THE HEAD.

BE PARTICULARLY CAREFUL WITH PORTABLE HEATERS...THERE IS DANGER OF
FIRE OR POISONOUS FUMES.

$$

Stay warm tonight folks! Freezing temps for everyone except immediate coastal areas!

Yeah but no freeze warning?? just a special statement. That tells me the NWS is not that all confident with their forecast, IMO.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is also weird that Beaumont's NWS was dead on for highs. Here in Houston they have busted by quite a few degrees. They were predicting 55-56F, but thus far we have only hit 51F officially at IAH.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Special weather statement regarding extremely cold weather tonight:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
309 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-121000-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
309 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...

A COLD DRY AIRMASS HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AS WINDS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY AND WILL
EVENTUALLY DIP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AS YOU
GO FURTHER INLAND FROM THE COAST. LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF A SEGNO
TO TRINITY LINE CAN EXPECT READINGS BELOW 32 DEGREES FOR 7 TO 10
HOURS OVERNIGHT. AREAS NORTH OF A MOSS HILL TO CONROE TO BRENHAM LINE
CAN EXPECT 6 TO 8 HOURS...THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR 5 TO 7 HOURS...
AND INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES 2 TO 5 HOURS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT PLANTS...PETS..PIPES AND
PEOPLE.

COVER SENSITIVE PLANTS OR MOVE THEM INSIDE. KEEP PETS INDOORS AS MUCH
AS POSSIBLE. IF THIS IS NOT POSSIBLE...MAKE SURE OUTDOOR PETS HAVE
WARM DRY SHELTER...AND PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FOOD AND FRESH UNFROZEN
WATER. RESIDENTS...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN RURAL LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 10...MAY WANT TO WRAP EXPOSED OUTDOOR PIPES. MAKE
FREQUENT CHECKS ON THE ELDERLY. IF YOU MUST BE OUTSIDE...REMEMBER THAT
SEVERAL LAYERS OF CLOTHES WILL KEEP YOUR WARMER THAN A SINGLE HEAVY
COAT. A HAT IS ALSO IMPORTANT AS 20 PERCENT OF BODY HEAT LOSS IS
THROUGH THE HEAD.

BE PARTICULARLY CAREFUL WITH PORTABLE HEATERS...THERE IS DANGER OF
FIRE OR POISONOUS FUMES.

$$

Stay warm tonight folks! Freezing temps for everyone except immediate coastal areas!

Yeah but no freeze warning?? just a special statement. That tells me the NWS is not that all confident with their forecast, IMO.

In the Houston AFD they say this:

SINCE LOCAL CONDITIONS FOR A
SUBSEQUENT FREEZE WARNING WILL NOT BE MET (TEMPS <20 FOR 8+ HOURS)
WE`LL ISSUE A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT OUTLINING THE COLD TEMPS AND
ESTIMATED DURATION.

That sounds like really weird criteria for a freeze warning?! In November they issued one when we were expected to hit 32F for just an hour or two..but this time they are not issuing one because they claim it has to be <20F for 8 hrs? Weird.

[ROCK]

It is also weird that Beaumont's NWS was dead on for highs. Here in Houston they have busted by quite a few degrees. They were predicting 55-56F, but thus far we have only hit 51F officially at IAH.

Still stuck on 54F here south. I was thinking 55F so not to bad. I was going to cover my pool plants but I don't think it will be worth the hassel given only a few hours below freezing if at all....

[ROCK]

Special weather statement regarding extremely cold weather tonight:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
309 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-121000-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
309 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...

A COLD DRY AIRMASS HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AS WINDS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY AND WILL
EVENTUALLY DIP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AS YOU
GO FURTHER INLAND FROM THE COAST. LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF A SEGNO
TO TRINITY LINE CAN EXPECT READINGS BELOW 32 DEGREES FOR 7 TO 10
HOURS OVERNIGHT. AREAS NORTH OF A MOSS HILL TO CONROE TO BRENHAM LINE
CAN EXPECT 6 TO 8 HOURS...THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR 5 TO 7 HOURS...
AND INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES 2 TO 5 HOURS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT PLANTS...PETS..PIPES AND
PEOPLE.

COVER SENSITIVE PLANTS OR MOVE THEM INSIDE. KEEP PETS INDOORS AS MUCH
AS POSSIBLE. IF THIS IS NOT POSSIBLE...MAKE SURE OUTDOOR PETS HAVE
WARM DRY SHELTER...AND PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FOOD AND FRESH UNFROZEN
WATER. RESIDENTS...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN RURAL LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 10...MAY WANT TO WRAP EXPOSED OUTDOOR PIPES. MAKE
FREQUENT CHECKS ON THE ELDERLY. IF YOU MUST BE OUTSIDE...REMEMBER THAT
SEVERAL LAYERS OF CLOTHES WILL KEEP YOUR WARMER THAN A SINGLE HEAVY
COAT. A HAT IS ALSO IMPORTANT AS 20 PERCENT OF BODY HEAT LOSS IS
THROUGH THE HEAD.

BE PARTICULARLY CAREFUL WITH PORTABLE HEATERS...THERE IS DANGER OF
FIRE OR POISONOUS FUMES.

$$

Stay warm tonight folks! Freezing temps for everyone except immediate coastal areas!

Yeah but no freeze warning?? just a special statement. That tells me the NWS is not that all confident with their forecast, IMO.

In the Houston AFD they say this:

SINCE LOCAL CONDITIONS FOR A
SUBSEQUENT FREEZE WARNING WILL NOT BE MET (TEMPS <20 FOR 8+ HOURS)
WE`LL ISSUE A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT OUTLINING THE COLD TEMPS AND
ESTIMATED DURATION.

yeah I read that. Point is why send out a statement of freezing conditions and not go ahead and bump it up to a warning instead? Its going to freeze right. Maybe the criteria of a freeze warning needs some changing here locally.

[jeff]

Special weather statement regarding extremely cold weather tonight:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
309 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-121000-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
309 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...

A COLD DRY AIRMASS HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AS WINDS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY AND WILL
EVENTUALLY DIP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AS YOU
GO FURTHER INLAND FROM THE COAST. LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF A SEGNO
TO TRINITY LINE CAN EXPECT READINGS BELOW 32 DEGREES FOR 7 TO 10
HOURS OVERNIGHT. AREAS NORTH OF A MOSS HILL TO CONROE TO BRENHAM LINE
CAN EXPECT 6 TO 8 HOURS...THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR 5 TO 7 HOURS...
AND INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES 2 TO 5 HOURS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT PLANTS...PETS..PIPES AND
PEOPLE.

COVER SENSITIVE PLANTS OR MOVE THEM INSIDE. KEEP PETS INDOORS AS MUCH
AS POSSIBLE. IF THIS IS NOT POSSIBLE...MAKE SURE OUTDOOR PETS HAVE
WARM DRY SHELTER...AND PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FOOD AND FRESH UNFROZEN
WATER. RESIDENTS...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN RURAL LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 10...MAY WANT TO WRAP EXPOSED OUTDOOR PIPES. MAKE
FREQUENT CHECKS ON THE ELDERLY. IF YOU MUST BE OUTSIDE...REMEMBER THAT
SEVERAL LAYERS OF CLOTHES WILL KEEP YOUR WARMER THAN A SINGLE HEAVY
COAT. A HAT IS ALSO IMPORTANT AS 20 PERCENT OF BODY HEAT LOSS IS
THROUGH THE HEAD.

BE PARTICULARLY CAREFUL WITH PORTABLE HEATERS...THERE IS DANGER OF
FIRE OR POISONOUS FUMES.

$$

Stay warm tonight folks! Freezing temps for everyone except immediate coastal areas!

Yeah but no freeze warning?? just a special statement. That tells me the NWS is not that all confident with their forecast, IMO.

In the Houston AFD they say this:

SINCE LOCAL CONDITIONS FOR A
SUBSEQUENT FREEZE WARNING WILL NOT BE MET (TEMPS <20 FOR 8+ HOURS)
WE`LL ISSUE A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT OUTLINING THE COLD TEMPS AND
ESTIMATED DURATION.

That sounds like really weird criteria for a freeze warning?! In November they issued one when we were expected to hit 32F for just an hour or two..but this time they are not issuing one because they claim it has to be <20F for 8 hrs? Weird.

A freeze warning is required on the first freeze of the year and then when the above criteria is met. Otherwise we wouled be under a freeze warning numerous times throughout the winter season. That is why a freeze warning was issued in Nov or Dec. and not tonight.

I cannot wait to see the posts this week in great anticipation of what is to come next weekend.

[gboudx]

jeff,

Any bets on if this thread surpasses the other one in terms of pages? The DFW NWS is really talking next weekend up. They must be pretty confident since they are discussing it a week off. They have me with a high of 41 next Saturday.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Special weather statement regarding extremely cold weather tonight:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
309 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-121000-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
309 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...

A COLD DRY AIRMASS HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AS WINDS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY AND WILL
EVENTUALLY DIP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AS YOU
GO FURTHER INLAND FROM THE COAST. LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF A SEGNO
TO TRINITY LINE CAN EXPECT READINGS BELOW 32 DEGREES FOR 7 TO 10
HOURS OVERNIGHT. AREAS NORTH OF A MOSS HILL TO CONROE TO BRENHAM LINE
CAN EXPECT 6 TO 8 HOURS...THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR 5 TO 7 HOURS...
AND INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES 2 TO 5 HOURS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT PLANTS...PETS..PIPES AND
PEOPLE.

COVER SENSITIVE PLANTS OR MOVE THEM INSIDE. KEEP PETS INDOORS AS MUCH
AS POSSIBLE. IF THIS IS NOT POSSIBLE...MAKE SURE OUTDOOR PETS HAVE
WARM DRY SHELTER...AND PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FOOD AND FRESH UNFROZEN
WATER. RESIDENTS...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN RURAL LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 10...MAY WANT TO WRAP EXPOSED OUTDOOR PIPES. MAKE
FREQUENT CHECKS ON THE ELDERLY. IF YOU MUST BE OUTSIDE...REMEMBER THAT
SEVERAL LAYERS OF CLOTHES WILL KEEP YOUR WARMER THAN A SINGLE HEAVY
COAT. A HAT IS ALSO IMPORTANT AS 20 PERCENT OF BODY HEAT LOSS IS
THROUGH THE HEAD.

BE PARTICULARLY CAREFUL WITH PORTABLE HEATERS...THERE IS DANGER OF
FIRE OR POISONOUS FUMES.

$$

Stay warm tonight folks! Freezing temps for everyone except immediate coastal areas!

Yeah but no freeze warning?? just a special statement. That tells me the NWS is not that all confident with their forecast, IMO.

In the Houston AFD they say this:

SINCE LOCAL CONDITIONS FOR A
SUBSEQUENT FREEZE WARNING WILL NOT BE MET (TEMPS <20 FOR 8+ HOURS)
WE`LL ISSUE A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT OUTLINING THE COLD TEMPS AND
ESTIMATED DURATION.

That sounds like really weird criteria for a freeze warning?! In November they issued one when we were expected to hit 32F for just an hour or two..but this time they are not issuing one because they claim it has to be <20F for 8 hrs? Weird.

A freeze warning is required on the first freeze of the year and then when the above criteria is met. Otherwise we wouled be under a freeze warning numerous times throughout the winter season. That is why a freeze warning was issued in Nov or Dec. and not tonight.

I cannot wait to see the posts this week in great anticipation of what is to come next weekend.

what are your thoughts regarding next weekend? How cold do you think we have the potential to get? Do you think we could see a winter weather event?

[KatDaddy]

Record heat!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here are a few things I found about the next cold blast from a few AFD's:

DALLAS

THINGS GET CHALLENGING NEXT FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. A VERY COLD AIRMASS
WILL GATHER STRENGTH AND MOVE SWD FROM CANADA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/
PLAINS LATE WED AND THURS...AS WRN CONUS TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND SFC LO EJECTS NEWD INTO THE GT LAKES. AIRMASS ORIGINATING
FROM THE YUKON/NW TERRITORIES OF FAR NRN CANADA...SO IT`S POSSIBLE IT
WILL BE AN ARCTIC INTRUSION BY THE TIME IT ENTERS N TX LATE THURS NIGHT
OR FRI MORNING. PER GFS SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED SWLY FLOW ALOFT...
EXPECT THIS TO BE SHALLOW (2-3 KFT). GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH POST-FRONTAL
PRECIP THAN ECMWF/CANADIEN MODELS. NOT BUYING THAT YET WITH GFS`S NATURE
TO OVER-DO LGT QPF THIS FAR OUT. MAINTAINING LOW POPS UNTIL SYSTEM IS
BETTER HANDLED BY FUTURE MODELS. EXPECT COLD TEMPS AND LITTLE DIURNAL
RANGES BY NEXT FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. STAY TUNED...OLD MAN WINTER IS
NOT THROUGH WITH US HERE IN N TX...YET.

AUSTIN

THE NEXT MAJOR ISSUE IS THE PROSPECT FOR A SHALLOW ARCTIC FRONT
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROJECT A
VARIETY OF FRONTAL TIMES AND SOUTHWARD EXTENTS. IN SHORT...WILL
TAKE THE GFS AS THE STARTING POINT AND ADJUST FOR ITS BIASES BASED
ON WHAT THE OTHER MODELS DEPICT. THIS LEADS TO A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
FROPA AND POSSIBLY NOT QUITE AS MUCH COLD AIR. HOWEVER...PROLONGED
SHALLOW COLD AIR UNDERCUTTING A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED POPS THROUGH
SAT.

HOUSTON

ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WAITING TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA LATE
NEXT WEEK. AS WITH THE PAST SYSTEM...EACH GFS MODEL RUN IS FLIP
FLOPPING ALL OVER THE PLACE DOWN HERE. THIS FCST WILL GENERALLY BE
FOLLOWING THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS WHICH HAVE HAD GOOD
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR THE PAST WEEK+. IT BRINGS THE FRONT INTO
THE AREA LATE SAT. FCST CONFIDENCE STILL ON THE LOW SIDE GOING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

SHREVEPORT

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE HUDSON BAY LOW WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT S ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA
AND INTO MT/THE DAKOTAS BY FRIDAY. ONE IMPULSE OUT AHEAD OF THIS DEEP
COLD LOW WILL EJECT E ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE
WEEK...WITH A 1048MB HIGH BUILDING S ACROSS THE N PLAINS...THUS
ENHANCING ANOTHER BAROCLINIC ZONE S INTO THE REGION. THE PROBLEM
IS...THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE VERY SHALLOW IN NATURE...WITH THE GFS
MAINTAINING THE ASSOCIATED 850MB TROUGH N ACROSS SE OK/CENTRAL AR.
HAVE TAKEN OUT POPS WEDNESDAY WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR LACK OF
MOISTURE...BUT HAVE INCREASED TO LOW CHANCE FOR INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION APPROACH OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF THE DGEX/GFS WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...HAVE WORDED THE DREADED
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN FOR AREAS N OF I-20 FRIDAY NIGHT...AS MIN TEMPS DIP
BELOW FREEZING...AND OVERRUNNING COMMENCES. ALTHOUGH...WITH THE 850MB
BOUNDARY JUST N OF THE AREA SUGGESTING MORE ICE/RAIN THAN SNOW...DID
NOT WANT TO RAISE FLAGS ATTM AS THIS STILL REMAINS DAY 7...AND
CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW. FUTURE FORECASTS WILL PINPOINT THE PRECIP
TYPE GIVEN BETTER RESOLUTION WITH THE SHORT TERM MODELS THAN THE
GFS/DGEX/ECMWF.

VICTORIA

THE MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND
WITH WL BE HOW FAR SOUTH THIS NEXT COLD FNT MAKES IT. THE
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WOULD ARGUE FOR A SLOWER MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...
DENSITY CONSIDERATIONS WITH THIS VERY BROAD SPRAWLING ARCTIC AIRMASS
WOULD ARGUE THAT THIS FNT WOULD AT LEAST MAKE A RUN AT SOUTH TX BY
THE END OF THE PD. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLNS ARE MUCH SLOWER
WITH THIS NEXT FNT (SAT OR SUN TIMEFRAME). ONCE AGAIN THE GFS IS
HAVING SOME TIMING INCONSISTENCIES WITH THIS FNT. FOR CONSISTENCY
REASONS AND A COMPROMISE AMONG THE VARIOUS SOLNS...WE WL INDICATE
FROPA FRI NIGHT. HOWEVER IT MUST BE STATED THAT THE CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SOLN IS LOW ATTM. WL SHOW SOME ISOLATED POPS FRI NIGHT AND SAT
DUE TO OVERRUNNING LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FNT.

..Looks like everyone is mentioning it. Could get interesting..

[Johnny]

What I want to know is, will those clouds/precip. move in from the north tonight/morning or will it be clear?

Jeff, I'd love to hear your analysis for next weekend when you get a few.

[aggiecutter]

It is very, very unusual for the NWS weather service to mention in its official forcast even the chance of winter precipitation in a forcast 6 or 7 days away, especially for this part of the country. I've seen them mention it during their discussion, but rarely ever in their official forcast this far out...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.p ... 3&map.y=89

[Extremeweatherguy]

What I want to know is, will those clouds/precip. move in from the north tonight/morning or will it be clear?

Jeff, I'd love to hear your analysis for next weekend when you get a few.

Looks like most of it is heading east. Places like Atlanta, Birmingham and northern Louisiana all have a good shot at light snow showers tonight...but for Houston I think we will be mostly clear. In NE Texas, however, a few flurries may be spotted as an area of the light snow in Oklahoma tries to come south. Who knows though, may be a miracle will happen and some of those flurries will work to Houston! Doubt it though because dew points seem to be WAY too low. We should see a hard freeze though in many areas, so heavy frost may be possible by morning. Frost looks like snow right? lol. I think we may have a better shot at ice/snow next weekend. Stay tuned...

[Tyler]

Record heat!

Actually, it will be quite the opposite.

[Tyler]

I cannot wait to see the posts this week in great anticipation of what is to come next weekend.

Hmmm, expecting something interesting next weekend jeff? The pattern sure does look 'funky', to say the least...

BTW, I'm at 42 degrees right now ALREADY! Its going to be one cold night, thats for sure...

[Extremeweatherguy]

I cannot wait to see the posts this week in great anticipation of what is to come next weekend.

Hmmm, expecting something interesting next weekend jeff? The pattern sure does look 'funky', to say the least...

BTW, I'm at 42 degrees right now ALREADY! Its going to be one cold night, thats for sure...

What I think is funny is that I just heard an on air met say that after this shot of cold air that we will be in the 70s by the end of the week and next weekend and that winter will be gone yet again. How wrong they will be...

[Tyler]

I cannot wait to see the posts this week in great anticipation of what is to come next weekend.

Hmmm, expecting something interesting next weekend jeff? The pattern sure does look 'funky', to say the least...

BTW, I'm at 42 degrees right now ALREADY! Its going to be one cold night, thats for sure...

What I think is funny is that I just heard an on air met say that after this shot of cold air that we will be in the 70s by the end of the week and next weekend and that winter will be gone yet again. How wrong they will be...

LOL! Which on air met would this be? I'm sorry, but what a moron.

[facemane]

I for one, am glad to see the cold.Another week or 2 of the record highs we've been
setting would have most likely caused my Pear tress to start blooming. It's nice
to be back to normal.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I cannot wait to see the posts this week in great anticipation of what is to come next weekend.

Hmmm, expecting something interesting next weekend jeff? The pattern sure does look 'funky', to say the least...

BTW, I'm at 42 degrees right now ALREADY! Its going to be one cold night, thats for sure...

What I think is funny is that I just heard an on air met say that after this shot of cold air that we will be in the 70s by the end of the week and next weekend and that winter will be gone yet again. How wrong they will be...

Yea, same down here. But when JB and the NWS are on the same page this early, something BIG must be getting ready to happen. Now JB in his evening update thinks we could have ice all the way to the valley and Friday might be the begining of the coldest 5 day period in years. Likewise it might repeat again towards the end of the month.

The NWS offices across the state are on board on the cold, but not to sure about how cold and wet. But still that is a change from where they were last week on this weekends cold snap.