Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Tyler]

winds have dropped off to 6mph or below. We are being set up for very good radiational cooling.

Yup!

[Extremeweatherguy]

winds have dropped off to 6mph or below. We are being set up for very good radiational cooling.

Yup!

It is 36.9F at my house right now too...this is down from 42F an hour ago. If I continue droping like this, then I may be at freezing within the hour. If so..then I may be in for a 11-12 hr. freeze tonight.

[Tyler]

winds have dropped off to 6mph or below. We are being set up for very good radiational cooling.

Yup!

It is 36.9F at my house right now too...this is down from 42F an hour ago. If I continue droping like this, then I may be at freezing within the hour. If so..then I may be in for a 11-12 hr. freeze tonight.

Really? Wow. Your lowering faster than I am, I'm at 39.

[ROCK]

Still at 47F here...south of Hobby....I didn't cover the pool plants. Hope that isn't a bad choice...

[wxman22]

My Wireless themometer is reading 45.5 deegrees at my house near the Medical Center.

[Tyler]

Temperature at my house now 37. IAH reporting 42. Winds at 6mph, dropping at a steady pace every hour. Temperature seems to be dropping at a good clip now as well...

My street looks really funny with so many covers everywhere over plants. We haven't had a good freeze yet until now, so scenes like this have been rare this winter.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here are the latest airport numbers:

Hooks = 40F (Dewpoint - 19F; wind - 3mph)
IAH = 42F (Dewpoint - 19F; wind - 6mph)
Hobby = 45F (Dewpoint - 16F; wind - 6mph)
Conroe = 39F (Dewpoint - 20F; wind - 7mph)

^^These are the 7:53pm reports. They are down 1-3F from the previous reports. I would predict a 1-3F drop for the next 3-4 hrs, and then 1F drop each hour after...if this is true, then lows tonight may look like this:

Hooks = 21-30F (avg. of those numbers = 25.5F) >> MY prediction: 24F
IAH = 23-32F (avg. of those numbers = 27.5F) >> MY prediction: 26F
Hobby = 26-35F (avg. of those numbers = 30.5F) >> MY prediction: 29F
Conroe = 20-29F (avg. of those numbers = 24.5F) >> MY prediction: 22F

**Those avgerages look to be about right for what to expect tonight, but it COULD be as cold or as warm as the numbers to the left of the avgs...but I think the colder readings are more likely. I also included my predictions which may be more in line with what actually happens. We will have to wait until morning though to see if they verify.**

[Tyler]

Here are the latest airport numbers:

Hooks = 40F (Dewpoint - 19F; wind - 3mph)
IAH = 42F (Dewpoint - 19F; wind - 6mph)
Hobby = 45F (Dewpoint - 16F; wind - 6mph)
Conroe = 39F (Dewpoint - 20F; wind - 7mph)

^^These are the 7:53pm reports. They are down 1-3F from the previous reports. I would predict a 1-3F drop for the next 3-4 hrs, and then 1F drop each hour after...if this is true, then lows tonight may look like this:

Hooks = 21-30F (avg. of those numbers = 25.5F)
IAH = 23-32F (avg. of those numbers = 27.5F)
Hobby = 26-35F (avg. of those numbers = 30.5F)
Conroe = 20-29F (avg. of those numbers = 24.5F)

**Those avgerages look to be about right for what to expect tonights, but it COULD be as cold or as warm as the numbers to the left of the avgs.**

Nice job Extreme. Everything is on track. Winds are even a bit lower right now than I expected.

My forecasted numbers remain the same since I made them thursday:

IAH: 27
Hooks: 24
Huntsville: 24
Conroe: 21
College Station: 26
Hobby: 29
Galveston: 34

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here are the latest airport numbers:

Hooks = 40F (Dewpoint - 19F; wind - 3mph)
IAH = 42F (Dewpoint - 19F; wind - 6mph)
Hobby = 45F (Dewpoint - 16F; wind - 6mph)
Conroe = 39F (Dewpoint - 20F; wind - 7mph)

^^These are the 7:53pm reports. They are down 1-3F from the previous reports. I would predict a 1-3F drop for the next 3-4 hrs, and then 1F drop each hour after...if this is true, then lows tonight may look like this:

Hooks = 21-30F (avg. of those numbers = 25.5F)
IAH = 23-32F (avg. of those numbers = 27.5F)
Hobby = 26-35F (avg. of those numbers = 30.5F)
Conroe = 20-29F (avg. of those numbers = 24.5F)

**Those avgerages look to be about right for what to expect tonights, but it COULD be as cold or as warm as the numbers to the left of the avgs.**

Nice job Extreme. Everything is on track. Winds are even a bit lower right now than I expected.

My forecasted numbers remain the same since I made them thursday:

IAH: 26
Hooks: 23
Huntsville: 23
Conroe: 20
College Station: 24
Hobby: 29
Galveston: 34

yeah those are good predictions; they will probably verify nicely. I went back and added my latest predictions to the above post as well.

[Extremeweatherguy]

My backyard is now at 34.9F!!! And it is only 8:19pm!

[ROCK]

My backyard is now at 34.9F!!! And it is only 8:19pm!

holding at 43 right now...weird that 40 miles away 8 degree temp difference.

[m_ru]

My backyard is @ 35F

[Extremeweatherguy]

8:53pm airport updates:

Hooks = 40F (no change in temps; Winds up 2mph; Dewpoint down 1F)
IAH = 42F (no change in temps; winds up 2mph; Dewpoint down 1F)
Hobby = 45F (no change in temps; winds up 2mph; Dewpoint up 1F)
Conroe = 37F (temps down 2F; Winds up 1mph; Dewpoint un-changed)

^^I found this list of reports quite odd. It is weird that most stations saw a 1-2mph wind increase and 2 out of 4 saw a dewpoint decrease. Temperatures are un-changed too. Since the dewpoints are still low though, the temperature potential is really the same. I guess we will have to wait and see what happens in another hour.^^

[Extremeweatherguy]

well as of the 9:53pm update...temps. are back on the downward. Hooks is now in the upper 30s, and IAH is near 40. Winds have also calmed down again to below 5mph at Hooks and near 5-6mph at IAH.

Here is the latest discussion from the NWS:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
935 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED INLAND...STILL AROUND 10 MPH ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL SETTLE SW OF THE
AREA TONIGHT...SO SHOULD KEEP A LIGHT NW WIND MOST OF THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...MAY BRIEFLY SEE CALM CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT INLAND. FOR THE ZONE/GRID UPDATE HAVE NUDGED TEMPS
DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS MOST ZONES. OTHERWISE...NO
CHANGES. 33
&&

This means that they are now predicting mid 20s for most areas north of I-10 and upper 20s along and south of I-10. The only place expecting above 30 are the inland coastal counties.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is now 32F in my backyard. Let the freeze begin...

[boca]

Extreme let's how good you are. This arctic air is like the buildup to the Super Bowl. I think your predictions for Houston area are on target. Here in S FL the low here in Boca is 35°F Sun nite and 33°F Mon nite. High mid to upper 50's.

[Johnny]

EWG...how in the heck did you get down to 32?? I'm north of you and sit in one of the colder spots in Southeast, Texas. I'm only at 37 and dropping very slowly.

[JonathanBelles]

good question its 51 and falling but it sposed to get down to 33

[Extremeweatherguy]

EWG...how in the heck did you get down to 32?? I'm north of you and sit in one of the colder spots in Southeast, Texas. I'm only at 37 and dropping very slowly.

I don't know it is weird...but I am. I checked both my digital and mercury thermometer and they both read 32 degrees. It will be interesting to see the latest airport reports in 10-15 mins.

[m_ru]

EWG...how in the heck did you get down to 32?? I'm north of you and sit in one of the colder spots in Southeast, Texas. I'm only at 37 and dropping very slowly.

EWG has what we call a "friendly thermometer" JUST KIDDING

My backyard is down to 32 now as well.