(New!!) Cold for the Deep South (Models, Maps, Discussion)

[Extremeweatherguy]

I cannot wait to see the posts this week in great anticipation of what is to come next weekend.

Hmmm, expecting something interesting next weekend jeff? The pattern sure does look 'funky', to say the least...

BTW, I'm at 42 degrees right now ALREADY! Its going to be one cold night, thats for sure...

What I think is funny is that I just heard an on air met say that after this shot of cold air that we will be in the 70s by the end of the week and next weekend and that winter will be gone yet again. How wrong they will be...

LOL! Which on air met would this be? I'm sorry, but what a moron.

I do not remember. I was flipping between the forecasts on Ch. 11, 12 and 13 and heard one of the guys say this. I think it was Ch. 11...but it was a weekend guy (not Dr. Frank). It is going to be funny when on Friday night it is snowing here and they just told everyone that it was going to be warm. BTW...seems like we DID have a good idea for the forecast today...even though some were saying otherwise..highs only hit 51F today which is 4-5F cooler than the NWS prediction, and tonight looks to be in (surprise, surprise) the middle to upper 20s (may be even a few lower 20s) and just yesterday people were saying that we were not going to get below 29-31F. Your forecast of 26F at IAH and my forecast of 25-27F looks like it is within the range of possibility tonight. Looks like we called this one pretty good!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I cannot wait to see the posts this week in great anticipation of what is to come next weekend.

Hmmm, expecting something interesting next weekend jeff? The pattern sure does look 'funky', to say the least...

BTW, I'm at 42 degrees right now ALREADY! Its going to be one cold night, thats for sure...

What I think is funny is that I just heard an on air met say that after this shot of cold air that we will be in the 70s by the end of the week and next weekend and that winter will be gone yet again. How wrong they will be...

Yea, same down here. But when JB and the NWS are on the same page this early, something BIG must be getting ready to happen. Now JB in his evening update thinks we could have ice all the way to the valley and Friday might be the begining of the coldest 5 day period in years. Likewise it might repeat again towards the end of the month.

The NWS offices across the state are on board on the cold, but not to sure about how cold and wet. But still that is a change from where they were last week on this weekends cold snap.

Yeah I just read JB's post too. I really pray that this all *really* happens this time. And I think there is a good chance it will. Could get VERY interesting. I just hope it is snow instead of ice.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Winds outside seemed to have died to less than 10mph already. They are dropping off fast!

[Tyler]

I do not remember. I was flipping between the forecasts on Ch. 11, 12 and 13 and heard one of the guys say this. I think it was Ch. 11...but it was a weekend guy (not Dr. Frank). It is going to be funny when on Friday night it is snowing here and they just told everyone that it was going to be warm. BTW...seems like we DID have a good idea for the forecast today...even though some were saying otherwise..highs only hit 51F today which is 4-5F cooler than the NWS prediction, and tonight looks to be in (surprise, surprise) the middle to upper 20s (may be even a few lower 20s) and just yesterday people were saying that we were not going to get below 29-31F. Your forecast of 26F at IAH and my forecast of 25-27F looks like it is within the range of possibility tonight. Looks like we called this one pretty good!

I agree EWG. Everyone was freaking out becuase the NWS was forecasting mid 50s and only temps around 30 this weekend. Well, the mid 50s forecast was a total bust (but so were my upper 40s), but I KNEW for sure we weren't reaching the mid 50s. Someone said we would be in the upper 50s. I don't think people know what a canadian airmass is, this isn't from the pacific.

You are right, my forecast and your forecast look on track for tonight. I'm already at 40 degrees, and will likely hit the freezing mark sometime around midnight, maybe sooner...

[PTPatrick]

if there is arctic air coming down...how come long range forecasts for this area(mobil, al) are looking like high back up upper 60, and lows 40's by next weekend. Accuweather is painting balmy 70's

[Tyler]

if there is arctic air coming down...how come long range forecasts for this area(mobil, al) are looking like high back up upper 60, and lows 40's by next weekend. Accuweather is painting balmy 70's

Becuase Accuweather's forecast is not done by humans. It is automated, and extremely inaccurate.

[southerngale]

I do not remember. I was flipping between the forecasts on Ch. 11, 12 and 13 and heard one of the guys say this. I think it was Ch. 11...but it was a weekend guy (not Dr. Frank). It is going to be funny when on Friday night it is snowing here and they just told everyone that it was going to be warm. BTW...seems like we DID have a good idea for the forecast today...even though some were saying otherwise..highs only hit 51F today which is 4-5F cooler than the NWS prediction, and tonight looks to be in (surprise, surprise) the middle to upper 20s (may be even a few lower 20s) and just yesterday people were saying that we were not going to get below 29-31F. Your forecast of 26F at IAH and my forecast of 25-27F looks like it is within the range of possibility tonight. Looks like we called this one pretty good!

I agree EWG. Everyone was freaking out becuase the NWS was forecasting mid 50s and only temps around 30 this weekend. Well, the mid 50s forecast was a total bust (but so were my upper 40s), but I KNEW for sure we weren't reaching the mid 50s. Someone said we would be in the upper 50s. I don't think people know what a canadian airmass is, this isn't from the pacific.

You are right, my forecast and your forecast look on track for tonight. I'm already at 40 degrees, and will likely hit the freezing mark sometime around midnight, maybe sooner...

Actually, you said no way would it reach 50° a few days ago (I think several times). That's ok...everyone has their predictions. Just commenting again as I don't know if you saw my last post suggesting that we give our opinion on our forecast and NWS's without being so matter-of-fact. I do enjoy the analysis and map discussion, etc.

Btw, who was freaking out? I think I missed that.

The high on Saturday is NOT going to be 50. You can take that to the bank. All of SE TX and LA will be stuck in the 40s with VERY strong cold air advection and cloudy conditions, the strongest we've seen this season. The forecasted lows are ok however.

Anyway, this was my post:

I think the point here is that all week when the NWS kept showing highs in the 50's for tomorrow, some of y'all were criticizing them for doing so, some of it pretty harshly. It looks like they may be correct. (of course we won't know until tomorrow)
They didn't just go by what the models were saying, but use other means of coming to their conclusion. They've taken a lot of flack for that. IMO, instead of matter-of-factly stating over and over how wrong they are and how bad they will bust (particularly so many days out), perhaps just say that you think they are wrong and why, and then continue on with your analysis. It makes you look better anyway, even if you're wrong.

That's MY opinion.

[Tyler]

I do not remember. I was flipping between the forecasts on Ch. 11, 12 and 13 and heard one of the guys say this. I think it was Ch. 11...but it was a weekend guy (not Dr. Frank). It is going to be funny when on Friday night it is snowing here and they just told everyone that it was going to be warm. BTW...seems like we DID have a good idea for the forecast today...even though some were saying otherwise..highs only hit 51F today which is 4-5F cooler than the NWS prediction, and tonight looks to be in (surprise, surprise) the middle to upper 20s (may be even a few lower 20s) and just yesterday people were saying that we were not going to get below 29-31F. Your forecast of 26F at IAH and my forecast of 25-27F looks like it is within the range of possibility tonight. Looks like we called this one pretty good!

I agree EWG. Everyone was freaking out becuase the NWS was forecasting mid 50s and only temps around 30 this weekend. Well, the mid 50s forecast was a total bust (but so were my upper 40s), but I KNEW for sure we weren't reaching the mid 50s. Someone said we would be in the upper 50s. I don't think people know what a canadian airmass is, this isn't from the pacific.

You are right, my forecast and your forecast look on track for tonight. I'm already at 40 degrees, and will likely hit the freezing mark sometime around midnight, maybe sooner...

Actually, you said no way would it reach 50° a few days ago (I think several times). That's ok...everyone has their predictions. Just commenting again as I don't know if you saw my last post suggesting that we give our opinion on our forecast and NWS's without being so matter-of-fact. I do enjoy the analysis and map discussion, etc.

Btw, who was freaking out? I think I missed that.

The high on Saturday is NOT going to be 50. You can take that to the bank. All of SE TX and LA will be stuck in the 40s with VERY strong cold air advection and cloudy conditions, the strongest we've seen this season. The forecasted lows are ok however.

Anyway, this was my post:

I think the point here is that all week when the NWS kept showing highs in the 50's for tomorrow, some of y'all were criticizing them for doing so, some of it pretty harshly. It looks like they may be correct. (of course we won't know until tomorrow)
They didn't just go by what the models were saying, but use other means of coming to their conclusion. They've taken a lot of flack for that. IMO, instead of matter-of-factly stating over and over how wrong they are and how bad they will bust (particularly so many days out), perhaps just say that you think they are wrong and why, and then continue on with your analysis. It makes you look better anyway, even if you're wrong.

That's MY opinion.

I guess you did not read my post. I said I busted as well. I predicted upper 40s. So I don't exactly see your point... Both I and the NWS busted, so we both eat crow!

[southerngale]

I do not remember. I was flipping between the forecasts on Ch. 11, 12 and 13 and heard one of the guys say this. I think it was Ch. 11...but it was a weekend guy (not Dr. Frank). It is going to be funny when on Friday night it is snowing here and they just told everyone that it was going to be warm. BTW...seems like we DID have a good idea for the forecast today...even though some were saying otherwise..highs only hit 51F today which is 4-5F cooler than the NWS prediction, and tonight looks to be in (surprise, surprise) the middle to upper 20s (may be even a few lower 20s) and just yesterday people were saying that we were not going to get below 29-31F. Your forecast of 26F at IAH and my forecast of 25-27F looks like it is within the range of possibility tonight. Looks like we called this one pretty good!

I agree EWG. Everyone was freaking out becuase the NWS was forecasting mid 50s and only temps around 30 this weekend. Well, the mid 50s forecast was a total bust (but so were my upper 40s), but I KNEW for sure we weren't reaching the mid 50s. Someone said we would be in the upper 50s. I don't think people know what a canadian airmass is, this isn't from the pacific.

You are right, my forecast and your forecast look on track for tonight. I'm already at 40 degrees, and will likely hit the freezing mark sometime around midnight, maybe sooner...

Actually, you said no way would it reach 50° a few days ago (I think several times). That's ok...everyone has their predictions. Just commenting again as I don't know if you saw my last post suggesting that we give our opinion on our forecast and NWS's without being so matter-of-fact. I do enjoy the analysis and map discussion, etc.

Btw, who was freaking out? I think I missed that.

The high on Saturday is NOT going to be 50. You can take that to the bank. All of SE TX and LA will be stuck in the 40s with VERY strong cold air advection and cloudy conditions, the strongest we've seen this season. The forecasted lows are ok however.

Anyway, this was my post:

I think the point here is that all week when the NWS kept showing highs in the 50's for tomorrow, some of y'all were criticizing them for doing so, some of it pretty harshly. It looks like they may be correct. (of course we won't know until tomorrow)
They didn't just go by what the models were saying, but use other means of coming to their conclusion. They've taken a lot of flack for that. IMO, instead of matter-of-factly stating over and over how wrong they are and how bad they will bust (particularly so many days out), perhaps just say that you think they are wrong and why, and then continue on with your analysis. It makes you look better anyway, even if you're wrong.

That's MY opinion.

I guess you did not read my post. I said I busted as well. I predicted upper 40s. So I don't exactly see your point... Both I and the NWS busted, so we both eat crow!

hmmm.....I did read your posts. I know you said you busted - no biggie. My only point from both of my posts was simply a suggestion to not be so matter-of-fact with exactly what WILL happen when you can't possibly know, but moreso to give your opinion. I only showed one example. I also said that I enjoyed the analysis and discussion. I thought it was a tip to help you in the future as I've seen others say exactly what is going to happen over and over, and it never happens exactly as they say. Weather is very hard to predict!

As to NWS busting, I'm sorry, but I haven't seen that yet. I'm not saying it hasn't happened, but I haven't seen it. They said 54° here and the official high was 53° - wow, awesome in my book.
The high was lower where I am, as I posted on page 1, but I don't live right by the airport.

I saw Hobby Airport hit 53° - I thought that was right about what they forecast for there.

But we didn't stay in the 40's. I'm not knocking your forecast. You're not a met, and you did well with your analysis, etc. My point was just the "high and mighty" I'm right and NWS is wrong thing....for lack of a better way to word it, puts some people off.

And then they end up right...

[Tyler]

hmmm.....I did read your posts. I know you said you busted - no biggie. My only point from both of my posts was simply a suggestion to not be so matter-of-fact with exactly what WILL happen when you can't possibly know, but moreso to give your opinion. I only showed one example. I also said that I enjoyed the analysis and discussion. I thought it was a tip to help you in the future as I've seen others say exactly what is going to happen over and over, and it never happens exactly as they say. Weather is very hard to predict!

As to NWS busting, I'm sorry, but I haven't seen that yet. I'm not saying it hasn't happened, but I haven't seen it. They said 54° here and the official high was 53° - wow, awesome in my book.
The high was lower where I am, as I posted on page 1, but I don't live right by the airport.

I saw Hobby Airport hit 53° - I thought that was right about what they forecast for there.

But we didn't stay in the 40's. I'm not knocking your forecast. You're not a met, and you did well with your analysis, etc. My point was just the "high and mighty" I'm right and NWS is wrong thing....for lack of a better way to word it, puts some people off.

And then they end up right...

You have not seen the NWS bust yet? Hmmm... IAH reached 51. Thats not mid-50s. College Station reached 48. Thats not mid 50s. Yes, they DID bust, and so did I, but thats not the point, and I'm not here to let people know how bad the NWS is, however, you sure are trying really hard to make it look like I am. I really respect the NWS, and think they do a great job, I just felt they were going to warm with temperatures, and I gave my opinion on this, considering this is a weather discussion board.

"high and mighty" I'm right and NWS wrong thing? What in the world? I'm sorry, but I'm really offended. How do you have the right to say that and label me as such? You are a moderator, obviously, your job is to moderate and see to it that those who are breaking the rules to be punished, warned or whatever, but I don't think that gives you the right to label people... All I did was point to my reasons of why I thought the NWS would be wrong and were to high with Saturday's temps (which they were), but even if they did get it right, I would have given them the kudos they deserve, and gladly ate my crow (and I ate crow anyway, I was dead wrong as well). Giving opinions or criticism to the NWS makes me someone who thinks he's "high and mighty"? I don't think so. Especially since I admitted I was wrong as well.

Okay, I think we're blowing this thing way out of porportion. But labeling me as a person who thinks he's "high and mighty, I'm right, and everyone else is wrong no matter what", is completely false, and I really don't appreciate it... I am sorry about giving my opinion on a NWS forecast, and I promise NEVER to do it again.

[Tyler]

Well, it looks like my temperature forecast is going to bust tonight. Darn winds didn't go calm like I though they would. Still, a hard freeze in my neighborhood, I've been below freezing since 11pm, and some puddles out on my pattio from the rains friday are starting to collect ice! It looks kinda cool.

Current Temp: 25 degrees.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is weird I woke up this morning to 30 at Hooks, 31 at IAH and then checked the history and it HAD been down to 27 at Hooks? But the good news is that my Hooks and Conroe forecast were both pretty good. It did hit within my my range for both places (27 at Hooks..so far. and 23 at conroe.) At hobby it also hit within my range, and they are reporting 32F at 6am. At my house this morning it is an incredible 22.8F! (Edit: I actually had changed my range for hooks down to 23-26F yesterday, but last week I HAD called for 24-27F. So Hooks..if it did not hit 26F..officially did not make my range. I'll have a better idea once we get official low numbers a little later on).

[Extremeweatherguy]

7am temp. updates:

My House = 22.8F
Hooks = 28F (down from 30F)
IAH = 30F (down from 31F)
Conroe = 24F (up from 23F)
Hobby = 30F (down from 32F)

***everybody is freezing!***

[Portastorm]

As for this upcoming weekend's event for Texas, it is interesting this morning (Sun) to read the diversity in comments from the NWS different forecast offices around Texas.

Too much text to post here ... but y'all should look. Some think the arctic air is coming along with an overrunning pattern. Some don't. Models are all over the place as well. Going to be a fun week to see how it plays out.

Man, I sure wish we'd get a decent winter weather event before February is out. Watching all of that snow on the East Coast is making me jealous!

[Extremeweatherguy]

As for this upcoming weekend's event for Texas, it is interesting this morning (Sun) to read the diversity in comments from the NWS different forecast offices around Texas.

Too much text to post here ... but y'all should look. Some think the arctic air is coming along with an overrunning pattern. Some don't. Models are all over the place as well. Going to be a fun week to see how it plays out.

Man, I sure wish we'd get a decent winter weather event before February is out. Watching all of that snow on the East Coast is making me jealous!

Yes, very weird discussions. Most NWS offices seem to have very low confidence. Joe Bastardi, however, is still calling for major cold and southern snow/ice storms during the coming week or two. It will be something to watch for sure.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Intresting AFD from Houston this morning:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1008 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2006

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST OTHER THAN TO REMOVE MORNING
WORDING FROM THE ZFP. GFS CONTINUES ITS POOR CONTINUITY REGARDING THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST. 00Z RUN HAD A FROPA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
06Z RUN HAD IT COMING THRU FRI AFTERNOON. HAVE A STRONG FEELING
WE`LL CONTINUE TO STICK WITH THE ECMWF THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE WHAT
THE 12Z GFS HAS TO SAY... 47

[Johnny]

Yep, some NWS offices around Texas aren't buying it and others are leaning towards it. Well Tyler and EWG...get with it! It's time to post up some models maps!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _138.shtml
^^12Z GFS at 138 hrs. makes little sense. The GFS is doing a poor job with this system and not seeing the low-level cold air. If you look on this map you see a ridge off the west coast and a 1052mb+ high over Montana. This kind of setup would send cold air spilling down the plains...however the GFS shows a zonal flow which makes no sense. Also notice that 850mb temps will be below -27C in the northern plains. I think at this point the models, ESPECIALLY the GFS, are having a hard time with the whole situation. We will probably have many contridicting forecasts over the state in the next few days...but hopefully we will have a better idea of the situation come mid week. Looks interesting though for sure. Would not be surprised if we got an ice storm out of this kind of pattern.

ALSO: the GFS is also showing another major Nor' easter at 138 hrs. Could get interesting for the NE yet again.

[aggiecutter]

One thing to remember about all the models, including the EURO. They have a tendency to tighten the jet underneath cold arctic air when it enters Southern Canada, especially air masses that are extremely cold and originate in Siberia as the one that is coming down next week-early the following week.

[Ivanhater]

wait a minute, were supposed to get in the mid 70's this weekend in Pensacola, but there is a chance of snow in the south?