Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Extremeweatherguy]

Despite many jabs from a lot of people on this board, the NWS hit this one on the head. Lows at IAH didn't even get below 30 - leaving many forecasts around here completely busted (I somewhat busted to as I thought upper 20's). Even more surprising - most areas of Houston did not see a hard freeze. IAH saw about 3 hours of below freezing conditions which may qualify - but if your typically warmer than IAH, you did escape a hard freeze. Maybe we all have a lot more to learn about arctic fronts.

Say hello to a high near 60 today with a lot less wind. Will feel a lot better than yesterday!

Im sorry...but last night was called pretty good by Tyler and I. And yes, LOTS of the area did see a hard freeze.. Angleton SOUTH of Hobby hit 24F...that is a hard freeze my friend. At my house I hit 23F (with 9+ hrs. below 32F)...another damaging reading for you. Conroe also hit 23F, and Hooks hit 26-27F. We also do not know if IAH hit the 20s, because that period of 6:53-7:53am does not show up on the reports...we will learn if it did later today when they put out their 6-hr. low. Hobby also hit about 30F, when it was only expecting 31-33F. So now lets compare the NWS forecast to my forecast and see how they compare...hmm..looks like I did a better job..

Conroe

NWS Forecast - 25F (last night), 28F (a few days ago)
Actual - 23F
My prediction was - 21F to 24F (I hit this one right on!)

IAH

NWS Forecast - 28F (last night), 31F (a few days ago)
Actual - at least 30F
My prediction was - 25F to 28F (I busted by 2F..the same as the NWS)

Hooks

NWS Forecast - 26F (last night), 30F (a few days ago)
Actual - at least 27F
My prediction was - 23F to 26F (I busted by 1F...the same as the NWS)

Hobby

NWS Forecast - 31F (last night), 33F (a few days ago)
Actual - at least 30F
My prediction was - 29F to 32F (I hit this one right on!)

My prediction for IAH was 24-33 (does that mean I'm better than the NWS) since I get to have ranges?

In the end, it shouldn't be argued who is 1 degree closer in predictions. I will say though I did think more of Houston would see a hard freeze. Look at the PWS's at Wunderground. If you take downtown as the center (something crazy I decide to do), a majority of areas did not see freezing conditions for a prolonged period of time. We (like many times) had some great variances in not just low temps (but sustained freezing temps).

wunderground is also not that great of a source to get your weather information. I mean who knows where these people keep their weather stations. For all we know they could be right next to a heater. For example, I see a temperature report of 50F right now in Cypress...obviously there is a problem with that. That really is not the point though...the point is that IT DID get colder than the NWS had predicted a few days ago (when Tyler and I were saying it would be). The ONLY reason some places stayed warmer than the 23F I had at my house, or the 24F in Angleton was because they had light 3-4mph winds. Now you said "May be we all have a lot to learn about arctic fronts"; well there really is not much to learn. Temperatures DID fall to their coldest readings of the winter (as I predicted), and many places north of Bush DID see a hard freeze (as well as isolated pockets south of Bush). The whole area WOULD have seen those 23-24F readings had it not been for the light winds. Really not much to learn. In the end, we had a very cold night across the area with even Hobby getting down to 30F. Central Texas was also in on the freeze as Victoria hit 25F, and Corpus Christi hit 27F. HECK! even Sarita in Southern Texas hit 28F. This just goes to show that you do not need a brutally cold airmass or lots of snow cover across the plains to get a hard freeze in Houston (the places that did not see a hard freeze WOULD of if it was not for the winds). Now all we have to worry about is next weekend which also has the potential to be very cold and dare I say snowy? I guess I'll just keep wishing for now..

Yeah, I mean, who knows where you keep your weather station. NWS did not bust this weekend. If you call falling a couple of degrees short a bust, then I guess they did. You do realize that on clear, calm nights the temperature range is bound to be large, right? So what if they didn't nail the forecast to a single degree. Geez, there are some conceited people here. Saying you've done a better job than the National Weather Service when there was no clear cut 'winner' is one thing (and how convienent that certain people ended up in the cool spots); saying you have nothing more to learn about the atmospheric sciences is another story. I didn't see a very detailed analysis at all, just 850 mb temps, and how strong the high pressure was. That takes a lot of talent, doesn't it? There are many more factors to consider, which means, even if you had come close, it would have been dumb luck. What some here are doing isn't really bashing of pro mets; it's actually downright cockyness and an I'm better than you attitude. It's really disturbing.

Hey all I am trying to show is that my idea of how cold it would get did not bust horribly like many were saying it would. Everyone was saying that I was predicting temps. way too low...but in reality they were not that low at all, and actually quite close to what happened. And yes it is not just 850mb temps and the high strength, it is also wind speed, dewpoint, urban heat island effect, etc. Also, I do not know what you mean about it being convenient that I ended up in a cool pocket..I did record 22.8F as my official low, I can not help what the temp. is at my house...it is not like I am making it up. Here is the proof:


**Sorry this came out so big..I tried to downsize it..but obviously that did not work**

[vbhoutex]

I think he is saying you are obviously in a cold pocket where you live. It only hit 29 here in Spring Branch.

[ROCK]

Hey EWG, that says 228F. ..you got that thing on the stove??

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hey EWG, that says 228F. ..you got that thing on the stove??

lol. yeah the camera angle made the point disappear in the picture. it is there, but just blurred in toward the bottom.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I want to remind everyone too that this is not a one night event. Be ready for another freeze tonight. We should be a few degrees warmer, and freeze for a lesser period, but the NWS is expecting 31F at IAH and 29-30F for Spring. Places like Conroe will likely be in the middle 20s.

[Johnny]

I reall think the temperatures will drop off quicker tonight with absolutely no wind as the sun sets. It dropped off very slowly at sunset for me last night because of the wind. That should not be an issue tonight.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

well the digital had 32.7F however my analog outside had 28 I'm up on the second story live on the north side of tomball not to far from spring creek, understood that some thermometers give different readings

[Extremeweatherguy]

well the digital had 32.7F however my analog outside had 28 I'm up on the second story live on the north side of tomball not to far from spring creek, understood that some thermometers give different readings

My digital and analog were about the same here (23F). I think the reason may be that my readings were taken nearer to ground level and yours were taken on the 2nd floor. In radiational cooling situations the air sinks and the air is colder the closer to the ground you go. That is probably why there are so many variations in temps. around the area. The places that got some light wind saw higher numbers than those who didn't, because they could not get the air to sink as much. Tonight though, with light to calm winds everywhere, we should see much more uniform temps. through the area.

[Furious George]

The PWS's are a great way to see where fronts have passed (they show wind direction as well as temps). Fortunately in Houston there are so many of them you know which one's to through away. Remember you have to through away the data that is both too high AND too low . And many give tabular data in good intervals (every few minutes). They confirm we had a cold night last night with many variances in temps - but someone on this board really seemed to pull a number lower than most.

http://www.wunderground.com/stationmaps ... &wmo=99999

[Extremeweatherguy]

What I find weird is that Angleton which is well south of Houston managed to get to 24F. Just shows how cold it would have been if we had all seen calm winds. this may also explain why I managed to reach 23F.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KLBX.html
^^Angleton weather data^^

**notice that during the first time they reported "calm" winds...the temp. dropped from 37F to 30F in just one hour!**

[Extremeweatherguy]

with dewpoints in the 10-15F range...IF we can go calm tonight...then a night as cold or colder than last night is quite possible. We are just as dry, if not drier, than we were this time yesterday. Can't wait to see what the NWS says in their afternoon AFD.

[Extremeweatherguy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
230 PM CST SUN FEB 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY IN N TX WILL MAKE ITS WAY THRU SE TX
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE JUST WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN UP JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP READINGS FROM
FALLING QUITE AS LOW AS LAST NIGHT...ESP COASTAL COUNTIES. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE MON AFTN ALLOWING AN
ONSHORE FLOW TO RESUME AND A WARMING TREND TO BEGIN. SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE SE THRU OK/N TX AND INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION ON TUES. DON`T
EXPECT IT TO HAVE AN AFFECT OUR WX. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MOSTLY ZONAL
BY MIDWEEK AND ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE AS PRESSURES FALL OUT WEST.
ANTICIPATE INCREASING CLOUDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DURING THE 2ND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY CLIMB BUT
WITHOUT A BOUNDARY/TRIGGER TO WORK OFF OF WE`LL MAINTAIN THE 20%`ERS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

STILL HAVE SOME TIMING ISSUES REGARDING IF/WHEN THE CANADIAN FRONT
WILL MAKE IT THRU SE TX NEXT WEEKEND. WELL...LET ME CLARIFY...GFS IS
HAVING SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AS RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY HAS BEEN HORRIBLE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS IN THIS REGION. TIMING DIFFERENCES OF AS
MUCH AS 36-48 HOURS BETWEEN EACH RUN HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AND
CORRESPONDING TEMPS FLIP-FLOPPING AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES. WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND THE FCST TOWARD THE MORE STABLE ECMWF/CANADIAN
WITH A FROPA SAT NIGHT AND KEEP ONGOING EXTENDED PRETTY MUCH THE
SAME. 47

[Extremeweatherguy]

Above was the Houston AFD...but look at the difference with the Dallas AFD:

MED RANGE MODELS STILL INDICATING SEMI-MCFARLAND TYPE SET UP OVER
WRN CANADA ...ALASKA AND THE BERING STRAITS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
STRONG...YET SHALLOW POLAR OR ARCTIC AIRMASS (2-3 KFT DEEP ON GFS
SOUNDINGS) LOOKS TO ARRIVE FRI MORNING INTO N TX WITH HIGHS LIKELY
OCCURRING EARLY...THEN FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. AFTERWARDS...LOOK
FOR LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND GENERALLY
STAYED CONSERVATIVE HERE...BUT STILL BELOW MEXMOS FCST DUE TO IT`S
POOR HANDLING OF SHALLOW...DENSE AIRMASSES SUCH AS THIS ONE. GFS
DEFINITELY WETTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
PRECIP WITH LIFT/MOISTURE NOT IMPRESSIVE PER MOST MODELS OVER TX.
CONTINUING WITH LOW POPS AND AN ALL-LIQUID FCST FOR THE TIME BEING.
WE`LL CONT TO REFINE THE FCSTS AS MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
AIRMASS...MOISTURE AND ANY FORCING.

Houston = un-sure
Dallas = Calling for COLD

I guess we will wait and see what happens...

[ROCK]

What I find weird is that Angleton which is well south of Houston managed to get to 24F. Just shows how cold it would have been if we had all seen calm winds. this may also explain why I managed to reach 23F.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KLBX.html
^^Angleton weather data^^

**notice that during the first time they reported "calm" winds...the temp. dropped from 37F to 30F in just one hour!**

Not sure if I buy those temps. If you look at hrly temps other than the 6hr readings they are all over the place. I am 25 miles north of Angleton and I saw nothing close to 24F. Weird indeed...

[Extremeweatherguy]

What I find weird is that Angleton which is well south of Houston managed to get to 24F. Just shows how cold it would have been if we had all seen calm winds. this may also explain why I managed to reach 23F.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KLBX.html
^^Angleton weather data^^

**notice that during the first time they reported "calm" winds...the temp. dropped from 37F to 30F in just one hour!**

Not sure if I buy those temps. If you look at hrly temps other than the 6hr readings they are all over the place. I am 25 miles north of Angleton and I saw nothing close to 24F. Weird indeed...

what it looks like is that they dropped whenever there were calm winds and rose when ever there was wind. Notice how they go from 25F one hour with calm winds, 30F the next hour with 3mph winds, and then 24F the next hour with calm winds yet again. Looks like the calmer, wind protected areas saw temps. MUCH colder than the open, or windier areas.

[Extremeweatherguy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
843 PM CST SUN FEB 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...
A REINFORCING CF IS MOVING THROUGH SE TX THIS EVENING...ONLY
NOTICEABLE BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WIND SPEEDS INLAND ATTM. IT WILL
REACH THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING AND INCREASE THE WINDS OFFSHORE.
MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT THE MIN TEMP FORECAST HINGES ON HOW LIGHT THE
WINDS GET LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. BELIEVE THAT
THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE FORECASTED
MINS...AND COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ACROSS THE SW ZONES AND
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL ZONES. WILL UPDATE ZONES/GRIDS TO TWEAK MIN
TEMP WORDING ACROSS A COUPLE OF ZONES...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE
BEING MADE. 33

good thing the NWS posted this. I was getting worried that winds were going to be too high. Also, I was worried b/c we are still in the lower 50s. But now I realize that a cold front is coming through and behind it we may get light enough for huge 5+ degree per hour temp. drops. Dewpoints are still in the middle teens too, so I have no doubt that if winds go below 5mph we will see a freeze. Here are my predictions for tonight (pretty much in line with the NWS. I agree with them this time for the most part):

Conroe = Middle 20s

Hooks = Upper 20s

IAH = Near 30F (give or take a degree or two)

Downtown Houston = lower to middle 30s

Hobby = lower to middle 30s

Cooler than normal spots north of I-10, but south of Conroe = middle 20s

Cooler than normal spots south of I-10, but north of Hobby = Freezing

**If winds do not calm like expected, then these numbers may be higher...and if they calm more than expected, they will be lower.**

[Jim Cantore]

not to often do you see a freeze watch in Miami

[Extremeweatherguy]

not to often do you see a freeze watch in Miami

Seriously. It is going to be quite chilly there tonight and tomorrow night...not a good time for a vacation there. Tomorrow night Homestead is expecting 35F with 20mph gusts meaning a wind chill in the 20s. Further north in the state...the Orlando area will be near 29-31F tonight and tomorrow night...and in northern FL, Tallahasse will be 25F tonight and 23F tomorrow night. When I lived in Orlando, I can rarely ever remember seeing a freeze this well into February. A rare event for sure...

[arkess7]

yes its 1030 and its already 34 here in Ocala......and im 90 miles north of Orlando..........its supposed to be 27 here tonight and 24 tomorrow night........thats not even considering the wind chill!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Tyler]

My low this morning was 24 degrees. I was below freezing for about 10 hours... Frozen puddles all over the place this morning. It was pretty cool! Also, this is the coldest morning for me this winter, and it beats last winter's coldest temp of 25.

I hate airports by the way, my temp forecasted busted. They are nothing but heat islands, and I should have taken that into account. Scratching my head on how IAH only reached 30. Oh well, my dinner tonight, an nice plate of crow!