Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[cheezyWXguy]

It must be noted that there are increasing chances of snow or ice storms next week for the Plains and Tennessee Valley. Overrunning galore.

is there any chance that the plains could mean Dallas?

[Roxy]

I'm now starting to hear that the cold isnt going to make far enough south for it to snow in texas...but ive also been looking over the lastest GFS models(posted above) that a bigger shot may come mid next week...is that a possiblilty?

Anything is possible, however, the upper air pattern is extremely unfavorable for any more cold arctic shots for Texas next weekend, other than a weak push of cool air. Next weekend looks cool, cloudy, wet, and dreary for Texas. But nothing very cold at all.

It must be noted that there are increasing chances of snow or ice storms next week for the Plains and Tennessee Valley. Overrunning galore.

So I can go ahead and plant my seedlings out? Is the freezing weather over?

[cheezyWXguy]

Also...what about March...I heard about a while ago that march maybe a little below avg. Could the pattern turn back around in time to give us one last shot a winter weather?

[Tyler]

It must be noted that there are increasing chances of snow or ice storms next week for the Plains and Tennessee Valley. Overrunning galore.

is there any chance that the plains could mean Dallas?

At this time, I don't think so, unless models are showing the high pressure center to weak, then the bitterly cold air will hit the brakes in Oklahoma, while a weak shot of cool air will make it down to the Gulf, it won't be cold enough for snow in Dallas. BUT, freezing rain is a possibiltiy, and must be watched. The upper air pattern we are entering is about as unfavorable as you could get. Which really stinks, becuase whenever we do get a favorable pattern, such as last weekend, the air isn't very cold! But now, a piece of the freaking polar vortex will drop into the northern plains, but it just can't get very far too the south! Quite a shame!

An upper ridge building into the gulf, strong southerly flow, low pressures out west, and zonal flow are not favorable for cold outbreaks, however, they are favorable for overrunning event, thus our chances of rain will be going up. Chances of snow (and maybe ice storms?), for Oklahoma, the Midwest, TN Valley will be increasing as well... If we could get a high pressure stronger than 1050, say 1065, that would be able to override the zonal flow, and ooze bitterly cold air down here, then we would have a possibility of some very cold weather, but I don't see that right now.

Again, north Texas should watchout for a possible icing event this weeken, a weak push of cool air will move through Texas, and will be just cold enough for Freezing rain in the Dallas area, Houston will just be a cold rain with temps stuck in the 50s...

[Tyler]

I'm now starting to hear that the cold isnt going to make far enough south for it to snow in texas...but ive also been looking over the lastest GFS models(posted above) that a bigger shot may come mid next week...is that a possiblilty?

Anything is possible, however, the upper air pattern is extremely unfavorable for any more cold arctic shots for Texas next weekend, other than a weak push of cool air. Next weekend looks cool, cloudy, wet, and dreary for Texas. But nothing very cold at all.

It must be noted that there are increasing chances of snow or ice storms next week for the Plains and Tennessee Valley. Overrunning galore.

So I can go ahead and plant my seedlings out? Is the freezing weather over?

I wouldn't say the freezing weather is over, as we still have the end of Feb and March to go, however, I wouldn't expect freezing temperatures for the next 7 to 10 days...

[Roxy]

I'm now starting to hear that the cold isnt going to make far enough south for it to snow in texas...but ive also been looking over the lastest GFS models(posted above) that a bigger shot may come mid next week...is that a possiblilty?

Anything is possible, however, the upper air pattern is extremely unfavorable for any more cold arctic shots for Texas next weekend, other than a weak push of cool air. Next weekend looks cool, cloudy, wet, and dreary for Texas. But nothing very cold at all.

It must be noted that there are increasing chances of snow or ice storms next week for the Plains and Tennessee Valley. Overrunning galore.

So I can go ahead and plant my seedlings out? Is the freezing weather over?

I wouldn't say the freezing weather is over, as we still have the end of Feb and March to go, however, I wouldn't expect freezing temperatures for the next 7 to 10 days...

Thanks Tyler, I will hold off.

[Tyler]

Also...what about March...I heard about a while ago that march maybe a little below avg. Could the pattern turn back around in time to give us one last shot a winter weather?

IMO, I think March may average below average, as chances of rain may finally increase for Texas and Oklahoma, areas who desperatly need it. The way things are setting up, we may have alot of overrunning events, which could point to alot more chances of rain. La nina can sometimes yeild cool and wet endings to winter, but they also yeild dry and warm weather in summer, so we need to get all the rain we can get this Spring.

[cheezyWXguy]

Ya... I kinda think the computer models modify the system next weekend too fast. Take the ECMWF for instance...by day for theres a huge 1050 mb high in NW Canada...but by the time it makes it to the U.S. it totally falls apart and gets shunted to the east...

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like im getting off the WINTER EXPRESS(lol) maybe Ill get back on next year

[Tyler]

Ya... I kinda think the computer models modify the system next weekend too fast. Take the ECMWF for instance...by day for theres a huge 1050 mb high in NW Canada...but by the time it makes it to the U.S. it totally falls apart and gets shunted to the east...

Check this out. This is the 12z GFS hour 108:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml

Look at the 500mb map. Notice that ridge building into the Gulf, literally pushing any arctic air away from here, squashing it in the Midwest. I can't believe with a 1056 MB high we can't get any arctic air down here, but thats just how unfavorable the upper air pattern really is... We will get a weak push of cool air, but the main stuff is shunted east.

[cheezyWXguy]

Boy I really hpe we have a better year next year...also one thing Ive noticed over the years is that whenever we get a really hot summer we get a really cold winter(in Dallas) take 2003 for instance...We had multiple days of 104+ degrees with a day that exceeded 110 degrees. That winter in the middle of February we had the biggest icestorm Ive ever seen...4-5 in of ice and school was cancelled for more 2 days(3 days on the other side of town)

La nina can sometimes yeild cool and wet endings to winter, but they also yeild dry and warm weather in summer, so we need to get all the rain we can get this Spring.

Maybe if my pattern is rite...then maybe Ill have a more active winter season next time

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I don't know. I just think this might be one of those occurances where the air may just seap through the flow and surprise even the most accurate forecasters. Just a gut call here, nothing more.

[cheezyWXguy]

^^^what i meant was that the summer of 2002 was very hot and winter of 2003 was ver cold, not the summer of 2003 and winter of 2004( although that gave us a good snowstorm too)

[Portastorm]

I don't know. I just think this might be one of those occurances where the air may just seap through the flow and surprise even the most accurate forecasters. Just a gut call here, nothing more.

Once again, CC, I'm with you and don't agree with Tyler's forecast (sorry dude). I'm not convinced this weekend is a non-event. I have seen some nasty wintry weather events here in the Austin area in similar patterns, where shallow cold airmasses play havoc with the forecasts. I would be wary of ruling anything out yet!

[Tyler]

I don't know. I just think this might be one of those occurances where the air may just seap through the flow and surprise even the most accurate forecasters. Just a gut call here, nothing more.

I understand what you are saying, the only problem with that is

1) Too strong of an upper ridge in the Gulf
2) Not strong enough High to override zonal flow AND gulf ridge.

The only positive thing out of this is temperatures in Canada won't be a problem...

[cheezyWXguy]

I think we may get cold enough to see a flurrie or two overnite or something...thats my prediction now. Eventually Ill change my ideas for better or for worse...I still have gut feeling that around Spring Break we may have a chance for winter's last big shot

[Tyler]

I don't know. I just think this might be one of those occurances where the air may just seap through the flow and surprise even the most accurate forecasters. Just a gut call here, nothing more.

Once again, CC, I'm with you and don't agree with Tyler's forecast (sorry dude). I'm not convinced this weekend is a non-event. I have seen some nasty wintry weather events here in the Austin area in similar patterns, where shallow cold airmasses play havoc with the forecasts. I would be wary of ruling anything out yet!

This weekend is not a non-event. Much needed rain could fall across Texas, we are entering an overrunning pattern. Freezing rain or snow could reach as far south as the OK/TX border, but the darn Gulf ridge is not going to let any kind of suprises happen in the forecast, if it wasn't for that, I would 100% agree with you guys. A 1056 high is something that can yeild suprising results, excpet with the upcoming pattern...

This is just what I'm thinking. I could be wrong, and I'd love to wishcast a cold outbreak for Texas, I just don't see it. We need a high pressure of 1070, 1056 is just too weak (suprisingly).

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I don't know. I just think this might be one of those occurances where the air may just seap through the flow and surprise even the most accurate forecasters. Just a gut call here, nothing more.

Once again, CC, I'm with you and don't agree with Tyler's forecast (sorry dude). I'm not convinced this weekend is a non-event. I have seen some nasty wintry weather events here in the Austin area in similar patterns, where shallow cold airmasses play havoc with the forecasts. I would be wary of ruling anything out yet!

Yea, I agree. It might not be the icy cold stuff. But similar events (and it's been awhile in these parts) we would have few days in a row down here in the upper 30's or 40's with the classic drizzle and yuck. It's been a few winters since we have that kind of stuff, but I recall quite a few of those events when I was younger.

Right now I would take that yuck in a heart beat. The freeze we just had this weekend will make whatever green that was sprouting up from my yard and dead brown now. The fire danger has to be potent now.

[Portastorm]

I don't know. I just think this might be one of those occurances where the air may just seap through the flow and surprise even the most accurate forecasters. Just a gut call here, nothing more.

I understand what you are saying, the only problem with that is

1) Too strong of an upper ridge in the Gulf
2) Not strong enough High to override zonal flow AND gulf ridge.

The only positive thing out of this is temperatures in Canada won't be a problem...

Yes, the zonal flow is strong but from 500 mb and above. The 700mb and 850 mb flow isn't nearly as strong ... much weaker in fact and that could allow the cold air to slide underneath the moist upper flow from the Southwest.

[Tyler]

I don't know. I just think this might be one of those occurances where the air may just seap through the flow and surprise even the most accurate forecasters. Just a gut call here, nothing more.

I understand what you are saying, the only problem with that is

1) Too strong of an upper ridge in the Gulf
2) Not strong enough High to override zonal flow AND gulf ridge.

The only positive thing out of this is temperatures in Canada won't be a problem...

Yes, the zonal flow is strong but from 500 mb and above. The 700mb and 850 mb flow isn't nearly as strong ... much weaker in fact and that could allow the cold air to slide underneath the moist upper flow from the Southwest.

Correct, except you forgot one thing, pressures are MUCH too low in the west, and the gulf ridge. Heights will build in Mexico, which will create the upper ridge.... I'm getting sick at looking at the models. A 1056 high not enough to bring down cold air is just pathetic.