Southeast Florida: Reasons For A Major Hit Soon

[MiamiensisWx]

Yep... that's my thoughts on why I think a major storm may hit southeast Florida this year or within the next several years.

[zlaxier]

The absolute worst case for South Florida is not a storm moving from the east but from the southeast moving North North West. If a large Cat 5 hurricane similar in size to Katrina before it hit New Orleans came from this direction and made landfall in Miami...it would then like a buzzsaw move into Broward and Palm Beach county.

That's the doomsday storm as far as maximum damage the actuaries at the insurance companies have nightmares over.

[MiamiensisWx]

I know this poll is starting to get old and that many people think a Carolina season will unfold due to the La Nina. However, I am starting to disagree with that notion more and more as days go by.

Think about it. The La Nina has been here a long time and has been going strong since October. Truthfully, I strongly doubt more and more that the La Nina will be this strong or continue as a stiff La Nina into summer. It is just too long for a La Nina to last that long, in my opinion. An El Nino could last that long, but a La Nina is much less likely. I think the La Nina will begin to moderate in middle to late spring; by the time summer comes around, this means that the La Nina would likely be very weak, if not neutral, by that time. This would result not in a Carolina season, but many areas getting hit each by a few storms (e.g., a Carolina hit or two, a southeast Florida hit or two, etc.). All these reasons is why my concern for southeast Florida continues to grow.

Who agrees?

[MiamiensisWx]

*BUMP*

Thoughts?

[Steve]

Too early to comment CVW. La Nina doesn't necessarily mean a Carolina season even if it's cranked (see 1998's tracks and the variety of hits).

>>The absolute worst case for South Florida is not a storm moving from the east but from the southeast moving North North West. If a large Cat 5 hurricane similar in size to Katrina before it hit New Orleans came from this direction and made landfall in Miami...it would then like a buzzsaw move into Broward and Palm Beach county.

Is it possible that SE Florida could be hit by a major moving NNW? That seems like an odd setup as it would basically run up the east side of Florida. It seems to me, though I could be wrong, that there would have to be a really bizarre setup for that to occur - say like a really stubborn deep trof with the eastern periphery over the NE Gulf or so providing that type of steering mechanism. 2000 (the un-season) had some deep trofs all the way down in the southern Gulf. But that was also a unique-type synoptic.

Steve

[zlaxier]

Is it possible that SE Florida could be hit by a major moving NNW? That seems like an odd setup as it would basically run up the east side of Florida.

That basically happened with Hurricane David in 1979 but it was only a Cat 1.

[MiamiensisWx]

It was not "only" a Category One. Most people did not experience sustained Category One winds with David, so they called it "weak", even though no storm is weak.

[Steve]

So then the key would be whether something really strong could match David '79. I suppose anything's possible in the Tropics, but that does seem like a somewhat unlikely scenario due to the shape of the peninsula (but that's just me).

Steve

[MiamiensisWx]

With the pattern becoming more clear, what are your thoughts now?

[gatorcane]

even for that, direct hits do tend to come from the south more, and were very common many years ago (like the 40's). Tracks like Izbell in 1964 and Wilma should not be unexpected

Yep and the ones from the south can be just as bad as from the east. But I think one from the east is long overdue here (Andrew in 1992 and then back in 1949).

[MiamiensisWx]

Yep... we have not seen a direct major hit from the east in such a long time. With this active cycle, it likely won't be much longer of a wait for it to happen, either, unfortunately.

[SouthFloridawx]

Ok I just asked the Magic 8 ball if South East Florida would get a direct hit from a catagory 5 hurricane. It said my sources say yes... lol

[MiamiensisWx]

Actually, I said I thought a Category Four hurricane is more likely!

[SouthFloridawx]

Ok i just asked it again and now it's changed it's mind... Now it says Better Not tell you now.... ok one more time

[SouthFloridawx]

Ok i just asked it again only i asked if south east florida would get a direct hit from a catagory 4+ hurricane this year. good news it said very doubtfull