SST's early 2005 vs. 2006

[dhweather]

March 1, 2005 on top, February 10, 2006 on bottom

While the 2006 image is 19 days earlier than the 2005, the point of
interest is the fact that the abnormal warming of the tropical Atlantic
in 2005 isn't as significant in 2006.

Perhaps a sign that 2006 will not be as active as 2005.

[Steve]

I don't know dh. The things that stand out most to me:

a) Gulf of Alaska is cooler in 2006.
b) Asian Coast is cooler in 2006.
c) Southern Pacific is warmer in 2006
d) Eastern ENSO zone(s) are warmer in 2006
e) Complete reversal off the coast of Brazil (Warmer in 2006)
f) Central Pacific is much colder than 2005

But other than a few little nuances, they look almost the same. Help.

Steve

[dhweather]

Well Steve, the things that stuck out to me the most are:

1) Area of abnormal warming is smaller and not as warm in 2006

2) Area of cool water is smaller in 2006 than in 2005

3) Gulf of Alaska is much cooler (as you noted)

4) Central Pacific is cooler as well (as you noted)

Another thing is that the extreme south Pacific is much warmer in
2006.

Certianly a La Nina ongoing, no doubt about it.

[MiamiensisWx]

Really, it is just too early to say this will result in a rather inactive season. I know it won't be another 2005, but to say it may not be too active is premature. Look at the signs...

1. La Nina has strengthened
2. Even though the Atlantic has cooled, things can change VERY quickly
3. Many areas of the Pacific have cooled hugely

Also, if the La Nina weakens, this could be potentially VERY bad for southeast Florida, where I am getting more and more concerned.

NOTE - Oops, I misread what you said. I'm sorry... I agree that it won't be as active as 2005. However, it will very likely be very active.

[Steve]

Yeah, I'm not sure what we can read into the February and Early March SSTA's though. I think we have to wait to see the reversals near the end of May (as compared to what they are now). If it was June 1st and the 2/19/06 SSTA map was of that day, I'd guess we'd be looking at a pretty straightforward pathway for waves through the Caribbean, a shot at some action in the Northeast and Maritimes and whether or not we were actually in El Nino in the eastern zones since that's what it looks like from here. I'd be real hesitant to say "recurvature" season, because it's a big unknown to me (in fact, I'm kind of thinking this is likely to be another "across the board" season with lots of htis and probably lots of storms). Time will tell if that's right or not, and I'll give it a legit look later in the Spring.

Steve

[cycloneye]

I agree with Steve in terms of being early to compare the data I think that by may we can have a much better idea of how the ssta's are.

[MiamiensisWx]

I completely agree, Steve.

[Jim Cantore]

Yeah, I'm not sure what we can read into the February and Early March SSTA's though. I think we have to wait to see the reversals near the end of May (as compared to what they are now). If it was June 1st and the 2/19/06 SSTA map was of that day, I'd guess we'd be looking at a pretty straightforward pathway for waves through the Caribbean, a shot at some action in the Northeast and Maritimes and whether or not we were actually in El Nino in the eastern zones since that's what it looks like from here. I'd be real hesitant to say "recurvature" season, because it's a big unknown to me (in fact, I'm kind of thinking this is likely to be another "across the board" season with lots of htis and probably lots of storms). Time will tell if that's right or not, and I'll give it a legit look later in the Spring.

Steve

I'd agree with that statement

[SouthFloridawx]

March 1, 2005 on top, February 10, 2006 on bottom

While the 2006 image is 19 days earlier than the 2005, the point of
interest is the fact that the abnormal warming of the tropical Atlantic
in 2005 isn't as significant in 2006.

Perhaps a sign that 2006 will not be as active as 2005.

I have a question about the temps in the area of La Nina.

Does anyone have comparative maps of a La Nina and Tropical Atlantic Seasons? I would be very interested to see the correlation of years where there is an La Nina and High Numbers of Atlantic Tropical Storms. I am also noticing that the area of higher sea surface temps is smaller but, I believe that at this point we have to wait to see if the temps jump up in the next couple of months. Also I see that the temps overall in the carib. are warmer than last year.

Can anyone help with my question?

[windycity]

i was noticing that too, the caribbean temps are warmer than last year, and covering a larger area. add the gom temps and that could spell trouble for 06. like iv said in other posts, i pray for a QUIET season . the u.s cant afford another year like 04 or 05 .

[Steve]

>>Can anyone help with my question?

You'd have to research it, but I think JB used to always use the Plymouth State site. I think they have historical records for SSTA's; surface maps and all that. Thing is, you'd have to find a list of La Nina years (entering/exiting) and then just hunt for dates. And also, the farther back you go, the weaker the data. Also, the NRL (Naval Research Lab) may be able to offer you some assistance or direction if you're a U.S. Taxpayer.

Steve

[jax]

it will be warm... warm enough

[windycity]

WHILE SST READINGS ARE LOWER IN SOME AREAS (06 COMPARED TO 05) IN OTHER AREAS THEY ARE HIGHER. THE WESTERN CARIB FOR EXAMPLE. WE GOTTA WATCH IT.