(New!!) Cold for the Deep South (Models, Maps, Discussion)

[southerngale]

hmmm.....I did read your posts. I know you said you busted - no biggie. My only point from both of my posts was simply a suggestion to not be so matter-of-fact with exactly what WILL happen when you can't possibly know, but moreso to give your opinion. I only showed one example. I also said that I enjoyed the analysis and discussion. I thought it was a tip to help you in the future as I've seen others say exactly what is going to happen over and over, and it never happens exactly as they say. Weather is very hard to predict!

As to NWS busting, I'm sorry, but I haven't seen that yet. I'm not saying it hasn't happened, but I haven't seen it. They said 54° here and the official high was 53° - wow, awesome in my book.
The high was lower where I am, as I posted on page 1, but I don't live right by the airport.

I saw Hobby Airport hit 53° - I thought that was right about what they forecast for there.

But we didn't stay in the 40's. I'm not knocking your forecast. You're not a met, and you did well with your analysis, etc. My point was just the "high and mighty" I'm right and NWS is wrong thing....for lack of a better way to word it, puts some people off.

And then they end up right...

You have not seen the NWS bust yet? Hmmm... IAH reached 51. Thats not mid-50s. College Station reached 48. Thats not mid 50s. Yes, they DID bust, and so did I, but thats not the point, and I'm not here to let people know how bad the NWS is, however, you sure are trying really hard to make it look like I am. I really respect the NWS, and think they do a great job, I just felt they were going to warm with temperatures, and I gave my opinion on this, considering this is a weather discussion board.

"high and mighty" I'm right and NWS wrong thing? What in the world? I'm sorry, but I'm really offended. How do you have the right to say that and label me as such? You are a moderator, obviously, your job is to moderate and see to it that those who are breaking the rules to be punished, warned or whatever, but I don't think that gives you the right to label people... All I did was point to my reasons of why I thought the NWS would be wrong and were to high with Saturday's temps (which they were), but even if they did get it right, I would have given them the kudos they deserve, and gladly ate my crow (and I ate crow anyway, I was dead wrong as well). Giving opinions or criticism to the NWS makes me someone who thinks he's "high and mighty"? I don't think so. Especially since I admitted I was wrong as well.

Okay, I think we're blowing this thing way out of porportion. But labeling me as a person who thinks he's "high and mighty, I'm right, and everyone else is wrong no matter what", is completely false, and I really don't appreciate it... I am sorry about giving my opinion on a NWS forecast, and I promise NEVER to do it again.

Whoa... Re-read my post. I never labeled you as "high and mighty" as you said 3 times. It was not a label on you, as even I admitted that I was struggling for the correct term to comment about how you were saying your forecast would be right and NWS would be wrong.

I think you read what you want to read as you completely ignored the compliments I gave and twisted what I thought was constructive criticism.

My point was never to knock your forecast, analysis, or whatever, as I already stated, but just your adamant way of I'm right and they're blind and wrong way of doing things. It just doesn't look very good and makes NWS look better in the end. I thought it might help you the next go 'round. Apparently, I was wrong.

I didn't really appreciate you putting words in my mouth, but whatever. I think you're going to see things how you want to anyway, so I'll just forgetaboutit. I thought I was clear in my posts (as others have been) that's there's a difference in giving your opinion on why you think a NWS forecast will be wrong and stating matter-of-factly that it will be. As it turned out, they were very close. Kudos to them!

I don't have nearly as many posts as you in these 2 threads. Perhaps reading mine again would avoid you construing what I say again.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I said it will be in the 50s as well. I never said it wouldn't be. And models aren't trending colder, they are trending closer together as far as timing is concerned... However, becuase of the upper air pattern, the farthest south ice could reach would be Waco. Austin and College Station should be fine. Due to clouds and rain, I don't think anyone will see 30s this weekend, mid 40s at best. This airmass coming in is not that cold. Cold enough to support freezing rain in Dallas, however. That is my concern. Wet and dreary weekend ahead.

Extreme, you have to look at the upper air pattern man. Low pressures in the west, a gulf ridge, and zonal flow do not send arctic air to Houston. Even with a massive 1056MB high, the ridge will do its part to only send us a modified, almost pacific like, airmass. My concern is Dallas. Major icing potential coming up.

I still do not know if I am completely convinced. I need to wait for a few more model runs and AFD's before I can make my decision either way. I still think a shallow arctic airmass could work down to Houston..and the NWS offices seem to think so too. Also, another thing to consider is, what if the high is stronger than 1056mb? What if the ridge in the Gulf does not build? What if the situation does not play out exactly like the GFS or ECMWF show it to? There are still too many factors that have yet to come into place...and we are basing everything off of models that have been having a hard time lately. I am still just not sold either way. If any pro mets would like to bring their opinions into the thread..they would be highly appreciated.

[Tyler]

I said it will be in the 50s as well. I never said it wouldn't be. And models aren't trending colder, they are trending closer together as far as timing is concerned... However, becuase of the upper air pattern, the farthest south ice could reach would be Waco. Austin and College Station should be fine. Due to clouds and rain, I don't think anyone will see 30s this weekend, mid 40s at best. This airmass coming in is not that cold. Cold enough to support freezing rain in Dallas, however. That is my concern. Wet and dreary weekend ahead.

Extreme, you have to look at the upper air pattern man. Low pressures in the west, a gulf ridge, and zonal flow do not send arctic air to Houston. Even with a massive 1056MB high, the ridge will do its part to only send us a modified, almost pacific like, airmass. My concern is Dallas. Major icing potential coming up.

I still do not know if I am completely convinced. I need to wait for a few more model runs and AFD's before I can make my decision either way. I still think a shallow arctic airmass could work down to Houston..and the NWS offices seem to think so too. Also, another thing to consider is, what if the high is stronger than 1056mb? What if the ridge in the Gulf does not build? What if the situation does not play out exactly like the GFS or ECMWF show it to? There are still too many factors that have yet to come into place...and we are basing everything off of models that have been having a hard time lately. I am still just not sold either way. If any pro mets would like to bring their opinions into the thread..they would be highly appreciated.

You are right, and I agree. But, the GFS and ECMWF, as long as the UKMET, CMC, and other global models agree on the upcoming pattern, so I don't see how anything much could change. The only thing I am concerned about, is if the high is stronger than progged. We know how models sometime like to underestimate things. So we'll have to watch that.

[Portastorm]

Well Tyler, Accuweather's JB is a little more bullish on the Texas event this weekend than you are ... and who knows, he's coming off nailing this weekend's blizzard along the East Coast. He's hot.

"much of the state encrusted in snow and ice" ... hmmm, where I have seen this one before .... Geez, I hope his hot forecasting streak continues.

[gboudx]

Portastorm, did JB give any reasons for his bullish thoughts?

[Portastorm]

Portastorm, did JB give any reasons for his bullish thoughts?

In his mid-afternoon update, he talked about the shallow nature of the Arctic airmass and how difficult it is for the models to handle. He also mentioned that the trajectory of the airmass (coming from the north and northeast) would mean it could get colder in the Valley as compared to say, Houston. He mentioned a phenomenon about the cold air being lifted by the north-northeast wind flow and how the density of the air would eventually pull it back to the surface and that is how the coldest of air may bypass Houston and head for the Valley. I've never heard of that before but who knows ... the guy has clients in Texas that he forecasts for and he knows the Houston area pretty well.

He said the state "may" get encrusted in snow and ice ... he made no promises of course. But who would at this hour?

Again, he did nail the late Nov-early Dec. pattern of 2005 well in advance and then he busted terribly in January, like a lot of forecasters did. He nailed this past weekend's event well in advance, so who knows?!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Portastorm, did JB give any reasons for his bullish thoughts?

In his mid-afternoon update, he talked about the shallow nature of the Arctic airmass and how difficult it is for the models to handle. He also mentioned that the trajectory of the airmass (coming from the north and northeast) would mean it could get colder in the Valley as compared to say, Houston. He mentioned a phenomenon about the cold air being lifted by the north-northeast wind flow and how the density of the air would eventually pull it back to the surface and that is how the coldest of air may bypass Houston and head for the Valley. I've never heard of that before but who knows ... the guy has clients in Texas that he forecasts for and he knows the Houston area pretty well.

He said the state "may" get encrusted in snow and ice ... he made no promises of course. But who would at this hour?

Again, he did nail the late Nov-early Dec. pattern of 2005 well in advance and then he busted terribly in January, like a lot of forecasters did. He nailed this past weekend's event well in advance, so who knows?!

I hope it does not miss Houston and head for the valley! I would be mad if all around me there was snow and ice and I got nothing! I hope EVERYONE gets some winter weather this weekend..now that would be perfect.

[Tyler]

Portastorm, did JB give any reasons for his bullish thoughts?

In his mid-afternoon update, he talked about the shallow nature of the Arctic airmass and how difficult it is for the models to handle. He also mentioned that the trajectory of the airmass (coming from the north and northeast) would mean it could get colder in the Valley as compared to say, Houston. He mentioned a phenomenon about the cold air being lifted by the north-northeast wind flow and how the density of the air would eventually pull it back to the surface and that is how the coldest of air may bypass Houston and head for the Valley. I've never heard of that before but who knows ... the guy has clients in Texas that he forecasts for and he knows the Houston area pretty well.

He said the state "may" get encrusted in snow and ice ... he made no promises of course. But who would at this hour?

Again, he did nail the late Nov-early Dec. pattern of 2005 well in advance and then he busted terribly in January, like a lot of forecasters did. He nailed this past weekend's event well in advance, so who knows?!

I hope it does not miss Houston and head for the valley! I would be mad if all around me there was snow and ice and I got nothing! I hope EVERYONE gets some winter weather this weekend..now that would be perfect.

Don't worry Extreme. The closest freezing rain or sleet will be to Houston will be Waco, and even thats stretching it...

[Extremeweatherguy]

well I just read the mid day post and I guess I am not that mad anymore. He says that even if the worst cold misses Houston...that it will still be nasty and cold. Good enough for me I guess...and as for the "most of the state encased in ice and snow" I hope he is dead on! Here in north Houston I tend to be a little cooler than the city too...so my chances for ice are probably increased. Either way, JB says that it will be MUCH colder than the models and overall I am very pleased with his forecast. Lets hope he will continue his "hot" streak with this one too.

[cheezyWXguy]

Portastorm, did JB give any reasons for his bullish thoughts?

In his mid-afternoon update, he talked about the shallow nature of the Arctic airmass and how difficult it is for the models to handle. He also mentioned that the trajectory of the airmass (coming from the north and northeast) would mean it could get colder in the Valley as compared to say, Houston. He mentioned a phenomenon about the cold air being lifted by the north-northeast wind flow and how the density of the air would eventually pull it back to the surface and that is how the coldest of air may bypass Houston and head for the Valley. I've never heard of that before but who knows ... the guy has clients in Texas that he forecasts for and he knows the Houston area pretty well.

He said the state "may" get encrusted in snow and ice ... he made no promises of course. But who would at this hour?

Again, he did nail the late Nov-early Dec. pattern of 2005 well in advance and then he busted terribly in January, like a lot of forecasters did. He nailed this past weekend's event well in advance, so who knows?!

I hope it does not miss Houston and head for the valley! I would be mad if all around me there was snow and ice and I got nothing! I hope EVERYONE gets some winter weather this weekend..now that would be perfect.

Don't worry Extreme. The closest freezing rain or sleet will be to Houston will be Waco, and even thats stretching it...

No, I think that waco will probably be at least pretty close to the action. Back up here in Dallas they dont have any freezing precip in the forecast...but in Texarkana the do(there's a link in another thread

[Tyler]

well I just read the mid day post and I guess I am not that mad anymore. He says that even if the worst cold misses Houston...that it will still be nasty and cold. Good enough for me I guess...and as for the "most of the state encased in ice and snow" I hope he is dead on! Here in north Houston I tend to be a little cooler than the city too...so my chances for ice are probably increased. Either way, JB says that it will be MUCH colder than the models and overall I am very pleased with his forecast. Lets hope he will continue his "hot" streak with this one too.

Extreme, it is near IMPOSSIBLE for there to be ice in Houston with the upcoming pattern. A pro met on the KHOU board said the chances are EXTREMELY slim to none. There will be no nasty cold this weekend, just highs in the 50s, and lows in the 40s. I wish I could tell you otherwise, but I am just being truthful with you.

[cheezyWXguy]

well I just read the mid day post and I guess I am not that mad anymore. He says that even if the worst cold misses Houston...that it will still be nasty and cold. Good enough for me I guess...and as for the "most of the state encased in ice and snow" I hope he is dead on! Here in north Houston I tend to be a little cooler than the city too...so my chances for ice are probably increased. Either way, JB says that it will be MUCH colder than the models and overall I am very pleased with his forecast. Lets hope he will continue his "hot" streak with this one too.

Extreme, it is near IMPOSSIBLE for there to be ice in Houston with the upcoming pattern. A pro met on the KHOU board said the chances are EXTREMELY slim to none. There will be no nasty cold this weekend, just highs in the 50s, and lows in the 40s. I wish I could tell you otherwise, but I am just being truthful with you.

I hope it gets farther than u think tyler, my brother goes to A&M and I'm hoping he gets a little winter in his neck of the woods too

[Extremeweatherguy]

well I just read the mid day post and I guess I am not that mad anymore. He says that even if the worst cold misses Houston...that it will still be nasty and cold. Good enough for me I guess...and as for the "most of the state encased in ice and snow" I hope he is dead on! Here in north Houston I tend to be a little cooler than the city too...so my chances for ice are probably increased. Either way, JB says that it will be MUCH colder than the models and overall I am very pleased with his forecast. Lets hope he will continue his "hot" streak with this one too.

Extreme, it is near IMPOSSIBLE for there to be ice in Houston with the upcoming pattern. A pro met on the KHOU board said the chances are EXTREMELY slim to none. There will be no nasty cold this weekend, just highs in the 50s, and lows in the 40s. I wish I could tell you otherwise, but I am just being truthful with you.

I am just wishing for the best. Yes, chances are slim...but JB is an expert met, so I trust he knows what he is talking about. Also, he was dead on with the recent cold and NE snowstorm as well as the cold in FL tonight. If his streak continues, then he may also be right on with this system.

[Tyler]

well I just read the mid day post and I guess I am not that mad anymore. He says that even if the worst cold misses Houston...that it will still be nasty and cold. Good enough for me I guess...and as for the "most of the state encased in ice and snow" I hope he is dead on! Here in north Houston I tend to be a little cooler than the city too...so my chances for ice are probably increased. Either way, JB says that it will be MUCH colder than the models and overall I am very pleased with his forecast. Lets hope he will continue his "hot" streak with this one too.

Extreme, it is near IMPOSSIBLE for there to be ice in Houston with the upcoming pattern. A pro met on the KHOU board said the chances are EXTREMELY slim to none. There will be no nasty cold this weekend, just highs in the 50s, and lows in the 40s. I wish I could tell you otherwise, but I am just being truthful with you.

I am just wishing for the best. Yes, chances are slim...but JB is an expert met, so I trust he knows what he is talking about. Also, he was dead on with the recent cold and NE snowstorm as well as the cold in FL tonight. If his streak continues, then he may also be right on with this system.

However, he busted about a dozen times prior to that. Even a broken clock is right twice a day... After that call in December in which he said all of Texas would see historical snow, and we'd see the coldest readings in years, I lost all respect for him. He makes too many extreme calls to be taking seriously...

Oh, and I am wishing for the best as well.

[cheezyWXguy]

Hey Extremeweatherguy, what are youre thoughts about NTX w/ the ice event?

[cheezyWXguy]

Hey Extremeweatherguy, what are youre thoughts about NTX w/ the ice event?

Anyone else is okay too...lol(just talking to EWG in specific)

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is a tour of what statewide AFD's are expecting, as of now, for next weekend:

Statewide forecasts:

AUSTIN, TX

Saturday: A 40 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high around 44.

HOUSTON, TX

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55.

VICTORIA, TX

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high around 57.

DALLAS, TX

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 46. (Forecasting 42F on Sunday)

LUFKIN, TX

Saturday: A 40 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high around 52. (Forecasting 49F on Sunday)


***Even if no ice/snow..it looks chilly for sure. Also, these are forecasts for 5 days out and can/will change.***


(parts of)AFD's around the state:

DALLAS/FT. WORTH AFD

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER TEXAS...WITH SUBTROPICAL FETCH
PROVIDING ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...AND OPPORTUNITY
FOR SEEDING AND LIGHT PRECIP. STILL TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR...AND THE EXTENT AND TYPE OF PRECIP. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT SUBFREEZING TEMPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE DFW
METROPLEX. CA AIR SHOULD BE THIN...WITH PRECIP PRIMARILY LIQUID. IN
SUBFREEZING AREAS...FREEZING RAIN AND SOME SLEET COULD OCCUR. QPF
VERY LOW FOR NOW...BUT ANY AMOUNT OF ICE COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS. GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL NEED TO FURTHER ASSESS AS
EVENT APPROACHES. 25

HOUSTON AFD

EXPECT TEMPS TO GO UP CLOSE TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES MID TO LATE THIS WEEK.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ZONAL AS LARGE VORTEX
OVER NORTH- CENTRAL CANADA START TROUGHING MORE TO THE WEST BY
MID WEEK. UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION BECOMING MORE WSW
TOWARD END OF WEEK. THIS IS WHEN LARGE HIGH PRESSURE (CANADIAN
ORIGIN) START TO PUSH SSE FROM WESTERN CANADA. SHALLOW
COLD DOME OF AIR WILL TRY TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWFA PROBABLY LATE FRIDAY AND THEN PUSH FARTHER SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
/EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN/GFS AND ECMWF ARE GETTING CLOSER IN
SOLUTIONS WITH LATE WEEK TO WEEKEND SCENARIO. SHALLOW COLD AIR
EXPECTED TO OVER OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. HARD TO SAY FOR NOW IF
THERE WILL BE ANY (OR ANY OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE) UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE(S) MOVING ACROSS THE WSW FLOW ALOFT (OVER OUR REGION) DURING
THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...GFS INDICATE SOME MOISTENING AT THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...WE WENT WITH
LOW SIDE OF CHANCE CATEGORY FOR FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. INDICATIONS
ARE THAT A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRYING
AT MID/UPPER LEVELS. WE SHALL STAY CLOSE TO GFS MOS GUIDANCE
NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. 37

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO AFD

A FEW QUIET DAYS AHEAD BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AFTER SEVERAL
INCONSISTENT MODEL RUNS...THE MODELS HAVE COME TO MORE OF A
CONSENSUS CONCERNING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE REAL COLD AIR LOOKS
TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A VERY SMALL DIURNAL
SWING ON SATURDAY...WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING 3 TO
5 DEGREES ABOVE THE LOW TEMPERATURES. IF THIS VERIFIES...IT WILL
BE THE COLDEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SINCE EARLY DECEMBER.

THIS PATTERN WILL CREATE AN OVERRUNNING EVENT THAT WILL LAST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE LOW...BUT POP AMOUNTS ARE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS WERE SHOWING.

CORPUS CHRISTI AFD

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF ARCTIC
CYCLONE RETROGRATING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING EAST AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND. 1050MB SFC ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS VERY
COLD AND WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE HEART OF THE NATION
FRI/SAT. 12Z GFS GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z RUNS
AND BRINGS SHALLOW BUT DENSE FRONT THRU SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS WEAK AND MAY NOT BE ADEQUATE TO PRODUCE MUCH PCPN...
THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN 20% POPS FOR NOW. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS SRN STREAM S/W AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. WARMER/DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED ON
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.

SHREVEPORT AFD

A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL BE UNDERWAY AND CONTINUE
UNTIL COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF REGION LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. KIND OF UNCERTAIN ABOUT ISOLATED POPS WEDNESDAY
WITH WARM AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR. BELIEVE CONVECTION SHOULD
ACCOMPANY APPROACHING FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LEFT IN
CHANCE OF STRATIFORM PCPN BEHIND FRONT...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE IN
FORM OF FREEZING RAIN. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR CONSISTENCIES WITH
PCPN TYPE. SATURDAY MAY HOPEFULLY SEE A BREAK IN PCPN...WITH MORE
ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. A SECOND ROUND OF WINTRY MIX UP NORTH NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION EITHER.

This is not a personal forecast or necessarily my idea of what will happen, but this is just a general idea of what NWS offices from around the state are thinking at this time. Things could change, but this is their position now. This is also good for those that do not want to dig through all this information on their own and only want to see the key parts of the forecast.

[cheezyWXguy]

Ya..umm...anyway JB did screw a few of the winter weather events up...from what see...he does overhype a lot of things...I remember the late december POSSIBLE snowstorm...he said the entire state would be incased in ice...I got nothing but rain up here But if you think about it...he did get major storms rite

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hey Extremeweatherguy, what are youre thoughts about NTX w/ the ice event?

I still have a lot of concerns and doubts with the upcoming weekend system...but I do feel that northern Texas will see some ice out of the system. You guys will be in for a good overriding event with ice the main concern. The key will be with how cold it can get though. I have no doubt that you will see the moisture, but the problem is with the temps. If you guys can manage steady temps. near or below freezing then a major ice accumulation could be on the way. If not, then ice will probably only be a concern at morning and in the evening and with lesser accumulations. Still lots of things to watch. I will have more updates soon as I can get a better understanding of the pattern and the upcoming situation in general.

[cheezyWXguy]

Hey Extremeweatherguy, what are youre thoughts about NTX w/ the ice event?

I still have a lot of concerns and doubts with the upcoming weekend system...but I do feel that northern Texas will see some ice out of the system. You guys will be in for a good overriding event with ice the main concern. The key will be with how cold it can get though. I have no doubt that you will see the moisture, but the problem is with the temps. If you guys can manage steady temps. near or below freezing then a major ice accumulation could be on the way. If not, then ice will probably only be a concern at morning and in the evening and with lesser accumulations. Still lots of things to watch. I will have more updates soon as I can get a better understanding of the pattern and the upcoming situation in general.

Good thinking...I agree with you 100% thanx EWG.