Old Man Winter FINALLY Returns to the West Coast

[aveosmth]

After what seems like forever, the West Coast will experience a major pattern change.

There will be dramatic temperature drops through the current week, and increasing chances for precip by week end.

The latest runs of the GFS (12 & 18Z) have been closing an upper low off on a more westerly & southerly track which will aid in the precip chances for California, Arizona and Nevada.

The 18Z GFS also shows a ton of cold air diving down from the Gulf of Alaska which should put snow levels in the 2500 ft range in Northern California and the 4500 ft range here in the South.

The Pacific Northwest will also see its coldest temperatures of the year. Seattle (my wife & son are going up there on Thursday) should see its low temperature drop to the low 20s and maybe even high teens in the foothills.

All in all, winter looks to back!!!

[Tyler]

Seattle and Portland will also find some much awaited chances for some snow.

[LTHLBLU]

Yea, Im hoping that Reno/Tahoe can get some fresh snow, were fine water wise, but it would be nice to have more.

[azsnowman]

It's NOT going to verify for us sadly......I just pulled up the latest AFD from http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz and it SOUNDS like a FLIPPIN' BUST -O-RAMA for me at least.........which is OK, with the high wind advisory being posted tomorrow and the February Fire still crankin' it's NOT going to MATTER if it snows/rains or NOT, we will have lost our homes and business' by then

Dennis

[aveosmth]

The ensemble runs have been very consistent still showing a pattern change for the West Coast.

The last two runs of the GFS has shown more precip shifting east in the longer term towards Nevada & Arizona as well. Good news for the guys out there.

[azsnowman]

WELL......I really hate to disagree with you but pull up the AFD for us at:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

Just like EVERY chance of moisture this "Nothing" season, it's NOW down the commode Ah well........with the Fire Weather Watch we have, maybe someone will toss a cigarette out their window and we won't have to worry about it anymore........this is downright depressing and it's NOT just ME, the population up here is in the WORST mood I've EVER seen

Dennis

[Aslkahuna]

Well, maybe the GFS beyond Day 7 will hit but I'm not optimistic since if the GFS had hit on every rain event this Winter that it forecast for us beyond Day 7 we would have about 40 inches of rain by now. As a general rule, any thing beyond 96 hours is to be looked at with suspicion since the models are rarely in consensus until then and frequently not until you are within 48 hours.

Steve

[azsnowman]

See..........I "told ya so!" I GIVE up, there will NOT be ANY moisture AT ALL PERIOD, the dry spell by my predictions is going to hit the 200 day mark!!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE MAJOR MOISTURE TAP INTO NRN AZ FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC NOW LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE TO PUSH THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF OUR CWA...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST AND LOW POPS WERE KEPT DURING THIS PERIOD.

[azsnowman]

Yeah the LOW pops are at a WHOPPING 10%.............a 90% that nothing will fall once again!

[Aslkahuna]

Latest runs show only minor amounts of QPF for far NW and N AZ and nothing elsewhere through Day 5 with nothing through Day 10. Typically the pattern that is developing is not one that brings much rain to southern AZ just some clouds, cooler temperatures and wind. Pattern change yes, good rains? No.

Steve