Snowstorm on Thursday for the plains?

[WaitingForSiren]

The models seem close today to what they were saying yesterday, maybe a LITTLE further north. qpf ammounts still only show about a tenth of an inch in my area, but i think the models are horribly handling this storm. HPC has the storm in oklahoma/kansas and then ALL the way up in canada the next day...I just do not buy that. I think the storm will not only go further north, but it will move slower than expected. Also, the trend of lately has been for these arctic fronts to move slower/get weaker than expected, so I think that too should allow for this storm to go further north then expected.

[chizniz16]

I sure hope your right about going north Siren, I will be sick if we get missed again.

[WaitingForSiren]

Yeah, same here. I mean, this hasnt been a horrible winter, we have had some amazing sights (we got a lot of wet snow in december and part of january where i love, which was awesome and beautiful), but we havent gotten SLAMMED. Id sure like to get a real storm for once, yah know? A southwest storm, not one of those wimpy clippers that manage to pull up enough moisture.

[JenyEliza]

Well, our NWS office here in Atlanta is starting to perk up about this (and they're usually very conservative about mentioning things like this so far out).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
330 PM EST MON FEB 13 2006

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
NO MAJOR CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. AS DISCUSSED PREVIOUSLY...TEMPS
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AT 850MB CONTINUES. TEMPS REBOUNDING NICELY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
RISE EVEN MORE TUESDAY. BIAS-ADJUSTED MAV TEMPS GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

WEAK S/W TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST TUES NIGHT AND WED. LIFT WILL
BE INSUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ANY SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDS OR FAVORABLE
ADVECTION PATTERNS FOR PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
THINGS GET SOMEWHAT MORE INTERESTING AS FIRST MONSTER SFC HIGH IN AT LEAST A COUPLE YEARS PROGGED TO PLUNGE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. LATE THIS WEEK. 12Z GFS CONTINUED TREND OF PREVIOUS RUNS OF 1055+ MB SFC HIGH AND BELOW ZERO SFC TEMPS INTO NRN PLAINS BY 12Z FRI. WHILE THIS WOULD NOT NECESSARILY CAUSE AN IMMEDIATE IMPACT TO THE SOUTHEAST...LARGE COLD ANTICYCLONES LIKE THIS OFTEN DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS FOR QUITE A WHILE. COULD SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND AFTER FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND POSSIBLY A WINTER WEATHER WEDGE EVENT SUNDAY OR MONDAY AS SW FLOW TRIES TO OVERRUN STRONG COLD DOME. NOT JUMPING ON THIS YET BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.

SNELSON

[plainsman]

hey cheezy accu and the weather channel are both east coast lovers! ya know.. just like on dec.7th when Dallas got slamed with ice and snow, like 1 or 2 days before that they had just plain rain for dallas ft.worth then at the last minute they changed it to a winter storm warming... and the ice was bad!!!! there were a million wrecks evreywhere... i remember last yr.. it was the same thing... there both run by east coast people..there going to talk about the east coast first, and a lot of forecast for the plains, south including the central and north plains are very inaccurate... id go by the local forecast but even they dont know the best weatherman in dallas ft.worth is steve mccauley... he does best with winter storms.... listen to him on channel 8 at night at 10.....

[gboudx]

I disagree on McCauley. That guy has hyped a few cold events this Winter that never panned out. Kristine Kahonek nailed the December ice/sleet event.

BTW, McCauley isn't on at 10pm. Troy Dungan is on at that time. I'm not sure when Steve is on.

[cheezyWXguy]

hey cheezy accu and the weather channel are both east coast lovers! ya know.. just like on dec.7th when Dallas got slamed with ice and snow, like 1 or 2 days before that they had just plain rain for dallas ft.worth then at the last minute they changed it to a winter storm warming... and the ice was bad!!!! there were a million wrecks evreywhere... i remember last yr.. it was the same thing... there both run by east coast people..there going to talk about the east coast first, and a lot of forecast for the plains, south including the central and north plains are very inaccurate... id go by the local forecast but even they dont know the best weatherman in dallas ft.worth is steve mccauley... he does best with winter storms.... listen to him on channel 8 at night at 10.....

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Ya that was a huge forecast bust...although it started to get overhyped and i heard on a weather station that this huge blob of moisture was gonna come down from colorado and slam us w/ 3-5 in of snow...I wake up the next morning and theres almost nothing there...I start packing my backpack for school and wen my parents told me there was no school i thot they were joking

[WaitingForSiren]

Yeah, accuweather tends to overhype east coasters way too much...i cant stand it any more. tahts why I stopped paying attention to their forecasting/forecasters.

[chizniz16]

Notice all the Winter Storm Watches in the tri state areas of Wyoming, South Dakota, and Nebraska. Expecting over 6 inches in those areas.

[plainsman]

north texas/ oklahoma area are already talk about freezing rain and sleet fri night and sat. night could be a real slick mess here, mainly a freezing rain event on the Dallas/ ft.worth nws there already posting a hazardous weather outlook on the freezing rain and sleet friday night and sat. night.. cheezy look at the north texas winter weather updates by cap crunch hes got the hazardous winter weather outlook posted and it talks about the freezing rain sleet situation fri night and sat here in North Texas

[cheezyWXguy]

north texas/ oklahoma area are already talk about freezing rain and sleet fri night and sat. night could be a real slick mess here, mainly a freezing rain event on the Dallas/ ft.worth nws there already posting a hazardous weather outlook on the freezing rain and sleet friday night and sat. night.. cheezy look at the north texas winter weather updates by cap crunch hes got the hazardous winter weather outlook posted and it talks about the freezing rain sleet situation fri night and sat here in North Texas

I saw that, plainsman...I checked out the forecast for my local area and they have it for sat. nite and sunday

[chizniz16]

So how serious should we take tonights GFS on this system? I have heard that we need to wait until it enters the Nebraska, South Dakota area before we can take the model too seriously.

[chizniz16]

It looks like tonights NAM is deciding to bring in further north finally. Definitly not the same as the GFS, but its a start.

[chizniz16]

HOLY MOTHER of GOD PLEASE LET THIS MODEL BE CORRECT!!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_078l.gif

[WaitingForSiren]

YEAH!I JUST SAW THAT! I almost fell out of my chair! if this verifies, we could easily see a foot of snow in southern Minnesota. It looks like my idea of this storm is starting to pan out =)...But seriously, this storm is amazing me. Finally, a REAL SNOWSTORM FOR MINNESOTA!!

[cheezyWXguy]

YEAH!I JUST SAW THAT! I almost fell out of my chair! if this verifies, we could easily see a foot of snow in southern Minnesota. It looks like my idea of this storm is starting to pan out =)...But seriously, this storm is amazing me. Finally, a REAL SNOWSTORM FOR MINNESOTA!!

you lucky people!!! ive never seen a foot of snow before...i probably wont get to see it for a long time...at least its looking ill get some wintry precip out of this anyway

[Tyler]

You guys are lucky. Enjoy the snow, while Houston bakes in the 70 degree weather. Ahhh, winter in Houston.

[WaitingForSiren]

Haha, we'll enjoy that next month =)

[chizniz16]

okay well this does prove that something could still change, so lets stay sane just for another couple model runs. But I have to admit I am pumped! I feel bad for the local weathermen who didn't check the latest models tonight, they say chances are deminishing, 2 inches possible. Lol, just wait until Patrick Hammer gets a look at this tomorrow morning on KSTP, watching him tomorrow Siren, he freaks out about this stort of thing!

[AirmaN]

Darnit! I wish it would end up a little further south, in lets say... Omaha?