(New!!) Cold for the Deep South (Models, Maps, Discussion)

[Extremeweatherguy]

On the 0z GFS, the cold air may come a bit farther south on this run, as the high is already at least 5MB stronger at 54 hours than the previous run. Air in Canada is also a tad bit colder. -32 850 temps! It would be December 1989 down here if the pattern were to set up right... But, its not going to.

Look at that strong low in the TX panhandle region though. That may be able to pull down very cold air on the backside of it.

[Tyler]

This is the strongest high pressure center to dive out of Canada in some time. And look at that, 474's!!!!! MAN! I would not want to be in the northern Plains this weekend, historical cold for sure...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _060.shtml

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah the northern plains are going to be below 0F for highs for sure.

[Tyler]

On the 0z GFS, the cold air may come a bit farther south on this run, as the high is already at least 5MB stronger at 54 hours than the previous run. Air in Canada is also a tad bit colder. -32 850 temps! It would be December 1989 down here if the pattern were to set up right... But, its not going to.

Look at that strong low in the TX panhandle region though. That may be able to pull down very cold air on the backside of it.

It would in normal situations, however, the gulf ridge has something to say about that... If the ridge were to be weaker than progged however...

[aggiecutter]

The high is 1056mb as it enters Montana. If it is that strong, it will come in and overwhelm the pattern...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _078.shtml

[cheezyWXguy]

the 0z looks good...however all the things i can see in hr 78...it doesnt look like as much precip

[Tyler]

The high is 1056mb as it enters Montana. If it is that strong, it will come in and overwhelm the pattern...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _078.shtml

Its now weaker than last run at this time... Go figure. And a 1056mb isn't enough to overwhelm this pattern, we need a 1065+, 1070.

[Tyler]

the 0z looks good...however all the things i can see in hr 78...it doesnt look like as much precip

We're not to the weekend yet!

[Tyler]

At 84 hours the high is now weaker than the last run at this time, however, the air is colder. Again, go figure...

[Extremeweatherguy]

(Remember though that we can not base forecasts off of one model...we also need to look at climatology as well as all the other models.) I still think that the GFS looks weird...something is not connecting here. There is a strong ridge in the pacific, a 1050mb+ high, and a mega load of arctic air in Canada, yet a weak little gulf ridge is going to block the cold air? It just doesn't look right. I would expect that ridge in the gulf to be in the atlantic and for a deep trough in the plains..but the models don't show that. Still a confusing situation.

[cheezyWXguy]

I no were not to the weekend yet...but i think the 18z showed more precip in the system at hr. 78 than this one does

[Tyler]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _096.shtml

There are so many things wrong at that hour as to why we are not going to see bitterly cold air down south its not even funny. Pressures are to low out west, zonal flow, high pressure in the plains too weak, gulf ridge is squashing any cold air from coming down here (the freakin' 588 line reaches south Texas on the 500mb). We are going to see a weak push of cold air, however, and thus the reason for freezing rain and sleet in north Texas, but no snow.

Welcome to February 1994!

[aggiecutter]

The shallow dense air will hug the rockies and come on south. The models just cant pickup on it. The rockies will act as a buffer against the westerly flow aloft. Nothing will stop this air until it reaches Mexico.

[Tyler]

(Remember though that we can not base forecasts off of one model...we also need to look at climatology as well as all the other models.) I still think that the GFS looks weird...something is not connecting here. There is a strong ridge in the pacific, a 1050mb+ high, and a mega load of arctic air in Canada, yet a weak little gulf ridge is going to block the cold air? It just doesn't look right. I would expect that ridge in the gulf to be in the atlantic and for a deep trough in the plains..but the models don't show that. Still a confusing situation.

Actually, the ridge isn't that weak. Its actually quite strong. On the 500mb, the 588 line reaches south Texas. Welcome to February 1994!

[cheezyWXguy]

We're not to the weekend yet!

nvm...i messed up on my analysis...oops

[Tyler]

The shallow dense air will hug the rockies and come on south. The models just cant pickup on it. The rockies will act as a buffer against the westerly flow aloft. Nothing will stop this air until it reaches Mexico.

I don't think so, again:

1) Pressure out west much too low
2) High pressure in the plains strong, but not strong enough
3) Gulf ridge developing at the wrong time.
4) Zonal Flow

We need a Feb 1989 high to override all these negatives.

[cheezyWXguy]

The shallow dense air will hug the rockies and come on south. The models just cant pickup on it. The rockies will act as a buffer against the westerly flow aloft. Nothing will stop this air until it reaches Mexico.

I don't think so, again:

1) Pressure out west much too low
2) High pressure in the plains strong, but not strong enough
3) Gulf ridge developing at the wrong time.
4) Zonal Flow

We need a Feb 1989 high to override all these negatives.

how big was the 89 high?

[Tyler]

All freezing rain for Oklahoma and parts of North Texas at hour 108:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml

This is my main concern, and something that needs to be watched.

[Tyler]

how big was the 89 high?

As high as 1080 MB.

[cheezyWXguy]

man i was really rong wen i posted that there was less precip, at the top of the page...i feel really stupid now