Official GA/AL/TN/NC/SC Cold Winter Rain Thread.

[Tyler]

You guys may have to change the title to this thread to the freezing rain thread this weekend...

[JenyEliza]

You guys may have to change the title to this thread to the freezing rain thread this weekend...

I'm hoping it's cold rain vs. freezing rain.

Besides...we've still got plenty of time for things to change. An ice storm isn't a given at this point.

But I'll keep your suggestion in mind, should it appear inevitable that the SE gets an ice storm.

*now or just plain cold rain, please.

[JenyEliza]

Here in Birmingham, there's no mention of ice or snow. Even the local stations, who like to hype up any wintery percip only mention a cold rain. I think ALabama's stuck with the rain, except for Huntsville.

I can't believe it's been 10 years since we've had any accumulations of an inch or more. This past Sat had a couple of flurries, but nothing to mentions really. I'd like for my dogs to have something to play in. They were funny looking at the snow flakes. It's like they knew something was odd, but not quite sure what to do about it...

I feel your pain too. The *now drought in the deep SE is really a bit tedious, isn't it?

I'm ready to see measurable accumulating *now, or let's just bring on spring.

[JonathanBelles]

i had 2 inches of ice on my car this morning

[Brent]

i had 2 inches of ice on my car this morning

I guess you are talking about frost...

[JonathanBelles]

no it was ice

[Extremeweatherguy]

where did the ice come from? There were no reports of any kind of freezing rain in the tampa area last night. Did you turn on/leave on a sprinkler? OR it may have just been a lot of frost that froze into a layer of ice.

[Brent]

no it was ice

Sorry... that's not possible with no moisture around last night.

[JenyEliza]

Hey Brent...any thoughts on the possibility of winter wx for us coming this weekend/early next week?

Here's FFC's take:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
314 PM EST TUE FEB 14 2006

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
WEAK SHORT WAVE ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS
LACKING FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME INCREASED MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY EFFECT WITH THIS OVERNIGHT.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES...UPPER FLOW REMAINS WEST TO SOUTHWEST AS A
SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES AND THEN LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY 12Z FRIDAY...PUSHING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FOR A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. MODELS KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GOOD MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BUT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL OR SURFACE SUPPORT THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY DROP LOW ENOUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS FOR A THREAT OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. BEST RAIN CHANCES COME MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY MONDAY.


&&

[Brent]

Hey Brent...any thoughts on the possibility of winter wx for us coming this weekend/early next week?

Right now I am not impressed with Central AL/GA and their chances. I think any significant ice problems would be confined to the extreme northern parts of both states. Things could change though...

[Brent]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
301 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2006

.SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND THE WEST. LOW CLOUDS
LOOK LIKELY OVERNIGHT...WITH CEILINGS AROUND 1500 TO 2000 FEET. WE
SHOULD SEE SIMILAR CLOUD COVER TOMORROW AS WE EXPERIENCED TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT MORE THAN 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING ALLOWING AFTERNOON READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S AREA
WIDE. CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNING ON FRIDAY. THE ENHANCES CLOUD COVER
MIDWEEK WILL BE THE RESULT OF A RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT TO KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION IN THE LIQUID
FORM. THIS FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A FAST MOVER...WITH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING IT MAY HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT KEEPING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR A WHILE.

12/SIRMON

.LONG TERM...

AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THINGS START TO GET A LITTLE
HAIRY. FIRST OF ALL...THERE'S STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW MUCH THE BIG ARCTIC HIGH WILL MODERATE BEFORE IT IS ABLE TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOWER 48. FRANKLY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE TEMPERATURE ERRORS (EQUALLY POSSIBLE ON BOTH
THE COLD OR WARM SIDE) IS VERY CERTAINLY PRESENT. ADD TO THAT THE
UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED WITH MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND WE'VE GOT A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR
THE WEEKEND.

MY INSTINCT IS TO FIRST GO WITH THE THOUGHT THAT THE LONG RANGE
MODELS JUST CAN'T RESOLVE THE STRENGTH AND SHALLOWNESS OF THE COLD
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE HIGH LIKE THAT. SO...WILL CONTINUE TO
EITHER UNDERCUT OPERATIONAL MEXMOS NUMBERS OR GO WITH THE LOWER
SIDE OF THE ENSEMBLE NUMBERS.

AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...I AM FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT IT WILL RAIN AT
SOME POINT BETWEEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. BUT
GIVEN THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS...TRYING TO PIN DOWN WHICH 12
HOUR PERIODS WITHIN THAT 48 HOUR TIME SPAN ARE GOING TO GET RAIN (AT
THIS POINT) IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY. HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO
USE A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO THE POPS...GOING WITH 30-40 PERCENTISH
NUMBERS DURING THAT TIME.

PUTTING THE LAST TWO PARAGRAPHS TOGETHER...AND WE'VE GOT A FORECAST
THAT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM LITTLE RAIN AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...TO
FRIGID COLD AND A POTENTIAL FOR ICE. ADD TO THAT A POTENTIAL COLD
AIR DAMMING WEDGE IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME...AND THAT
COMPLICATES THINGS EVEN MORE.

I GUESS WHAT I AM TRYING TO GET AT HERE IS THAT THINGS NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CURRENT FORECAST SORT
OF SPLITS THINGS DOWN THE MIDDLE...WITH MOSTLY RAIN BUT A CHANCE FOR
SOME FREEZING RAIN IN PARTS OF THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. THAT SOUNDS
LIKE A GOOD WAY TO GO FOR NOW (ALONG WITH A BRIEF MENTION IN THE
HWO)...AND IF THINGS LOOK LIKE THEY ARE GOING TO GET COLDER AND
WETTER...THEN WE STILL HAVE TIME TO RAMP THE SITUATION UP BEFORE THE
END OF THE WEEK.

[JenyEliza]

Hey Brent...any thoughts on the possibility of winter wx for us coming this weekend/early next week?

Right now I am not impressed with Central AL/GA and their chances. I think any significant ice problems would be confined to the extreme northern parts of both states. Things could change though...

If it's ice--they can have it.

[JenyEliza]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
301 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2006

.SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND THE WEST. LOW CLOUDS
LOOK LIKELY OVERNIGHT...WITH CEILINGS AROUND 1500 TO 2000 FEET. WE
SHOULD SEE SIMILAR CLOUD COVER TOMORROW AS WE EXPERIENCED TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT MORE THAN 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING ALLOWING AFTERNOON READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S AREA
WIDE. CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNING ON FRIDAY. THE ENHANCES CLOUD COVER
MIDWEEK WILL BE THE RESULT OF A RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT TO KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION IN THE LIQUID
FORM. THIS FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A FAST MOVER...WITH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING IT MAY HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT KEEPING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR A WHILE.

12/SIRMON

.LONG TERM...

AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THINGS START TO GET A LITTLE
HAIRY. FIRST OF ALL...THERE'S STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW MUCH THE BIG ARCTIC HIGH WILL MODERATE BEFORE IT IS ABLE TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOWER 48. FRANKLY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE TEMPERATURE ERRORS (EQUALLY POSSIBLE ON BOTH
THE COLD OR WARM SIDE) IS VERY CERTAINLY PRESENT. ADD TO THAT THE
UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED WITH MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND WE'VE GOT A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR
THE WEEKEND.

MY INSTINCT IS TO FIRST GO WITH THE THOUGHT THAT THE LONG RANGE
MODELS JUST CAN'T RESOLVE THE STRENGTH AND SHALLOWNESS OF THE COLD
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE HIGH LIKE THAT. SO...WILL CONTINUE TO
EITHER UNDERCUT OPERATIONAL MEXMOS NUMBERS OR GO WITH THE LOWER
SIDE OF THE ENSEMBLE NUMBERS.

AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...I AM FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT IT WILL RAIN AT
SOME POINT BETWEEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. BUT
GIVEN THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS...TRYING TO PIN DOWN WHICH 12
HOUR PERIODS WITHIN THAT 48 HOUR TIME SPAN ARE GOING TO GET RAIN (AT
THIS POINT) IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY. HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO
USE A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO THE POPS...GOING WITH 30-40 PERCENTISH
NUMBERS DURING THAT TIME.

PUTTING THE LAST TWO PARAGRAPHS TOGETHER...AND WE'VE GOT A FORECAST
THAT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM LITTLE RAIN AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...TO
FRIGID COLD AND A POTENTIAL FOR ICE. ADD TO THAT A POTENTIAL COLD
AIR DAMMING WEDGE IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME...AND THAT
COMPLICATES THINGS EVEN MORE.

I GUESS WHAT I AM TRYING TO GET AT HERE IS THAT THINGS NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CURRENT FORECAST SORT
OF SPLITS THINGS DOWN THE MIDDLE...WITH MOSTLY RAIN BUT A CHANCE FOR
SOME FREEZING RAIN IN PARTS OF THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. THAT SOUNDS
LIKE A GOOD WAY TO GO FOR NOW (ALONG WITH A BRIEF MENTION IN THE
HWO)...AND IF THINGS LOOK LIKE THEY ARE GOING TO GET COLDER AND
WETTER...THEN WE STILL HAVE TIME TO RAMP THE SITUATION UP BEFORE THE
END OF THE WEEK.

Ok. Here's some more info to add to the pot:

Birmingham:


Atlanta:

[Tyler]

no it was ice

Did you water down your car before you went to bed. LOL!

[JonathanBelles]

no but dew was on grass and car all day monday and it froze

[Extremeweatherguy]

no but dew was on grass and car all day monday and it froze

but in another thread you said it was 35F. How did it freeze?

[Tyler]

no but dew was on grass and car all day monday and it froze

But you said two inches of ice... Thats impossible with the conditions you were in.

[Extremeweatherguy]

no but dew was on grass and car all day monday and it froze

But you said two inches of ice... Thats impossible with the conditions you were in.

exactly. two inches is like this much ice:

_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_

^^I measured this with a ruler too. I doubt you had THAT MUCH ice on your car. If that much was on your car then it would be everywhere else too. A 2" ice storm has been known to take down trees, power lines, and collapse roofs. I doubt you saw something like that. Plus, even in a 2" ice storm...the ice would never freeze right at contact like this...so an ice accumulation this big on your car is nearly impossible...the frz. rain would flatten out before freezing. You would have half this amount or less on a windshield after a large ice storm. UNLESS it was some history setting super storm.

[Brent]

no but dew was on grass and car all day monday and it froze

That made absolutely zero sense along with your bogus claim of 2" of ice on your car and 6 or 7 power interruptions.



Oh and newsflash: 35 won't freeze water.

[JenyEliza]

Can we get this conversation back on track? Imaginary ice in St. Pete isn't even part of the region and topic this thread covers.

So...latest from FFC:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
640 PM EST TUE FEB 14 2006


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY 12Z FRIDAY...PUSHING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FOR A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. MODELS KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GOOD MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BUT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL OR SURFACE SUPPORT THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY DROP LOW ENOUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS FOR A THREAT OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. BEST RAIN CHANCES COME MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

&&