(New!!) Cold for the Deep South (Models, Maps, Discussion)

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Brent
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#221 Postby Brent » Tue Feb 14, 2006 5:23 pm

jschlitz wrote:
Tyler wrote:
jschlitz wrote:WELL WELL WELL, I am finally back from NYC :-)

We were supposed to fly home Sun. afternoon, but the airport was closed due to the blizzard, so we finally made it home close to midnight last night. I'll post about the experience in the NYC thread...it was quite amazing.



Just FYI (and you probably already knew this), but that was NYC greatest snowstorm total EVER! You experienced the worst snowstorm for NYC, lucky!


Yes, it was nothing short of AMAZING. It was awesome except for the fact we got stuck in Newark for an extra day when the airport closed.

I do have quite a story to tell - when I have time I will post a full narrative with pictures, but yes, for all you snow lovers, it was indeed most incredible - we hit the JACKPOT - definitely a story for the future grandkinds someday (if I live that long :wink: )


Awesome... looking forward to it. I kept thinking about you as I watched the snow pile up very quickly on Sunday.
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#222 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Feb 14, 2006 5:27 pm

Wow!!! Looks like another possible winter weather event for NTX on tuesday!(I no its 1 run of the GFS but c'mon)check out this link!!!
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/g ... c_ptyp.gif
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#223 Postby Tyler » Tue Feb 14, 2006 5:27 pm

cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:
Tyler wrote:
cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:Back on the subject of the upcoming cold. I noticed some of this afternoon's AFD's talked about a stronger front coming in next Tuesday for us in south Texas which might be Monday for north Texas and the Panhandle. What's the scoop on this one?


Thats the one that will bring us back into winter mode, with below normal temperatures all next week, except for monday. It will be a strong front for the middle of February. Maybe yet another freeze.


For the record, last Saturday night/ Sunday morning, the official temp at CC Airport dropped to 25. Up the road a few miles from my house at a co-op station, the temp came in 23. Interesting that some of our temps down here were just as cold or even colder than the Houston area. I am going to guess I was in the upper 20's at my house.


That is interesting! During that December arctic blast, you guys were colder than Houston at some times.
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#224 Postby fwbbreeze » Tue Feb 14, 2006 5:28 pm

There was quite a bit of -removed- on this and a previous topic from a couple of posters. The professional mets on here did a great job of forecasting...as usual. I think Ill stick to my local NWS office and the professional mets for my forecasts. :lol:

fwbbreeze
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#225 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Tue Feb 14, 2006 5:30 pm

Tyler wrote:
cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:
Tyler wrote:
cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:Back on the subject of the upcoming cold. I noticed some of this afternoon's AFD's talked about a stronger front coming in next Tuesday for us in south Texas which might be Monday for north Texas and the Panhandle. What's the scoop on this one?


Thats the one that will bring us back into winter mode, with below normal temperatures all next week, except for monday. It will be a strong front for the middle of February. Maybe yet another freeze.


For the record, last Saturday night/ Sunday morning, the official temp at CC Airport dropped to 25. Up the road a few miles from my house at a co-op station, the temp came in 23. Interesting that some of our temps down here were just as cold or even colder than the Houston area. I am going to guess I was in the upper 20's at my house.


That is interesting! During that December arctic blast, you guys were colder than Houston at some times.


We didn't officially get below freezing during that snap. In fact , those temps we had the other day were the first freezing temps (official) we had in Corpus since Dec 26, 2004 which was the day after the Great Snowstorm of 2004.

I could tell Sunday afternoon that we stayed below freezing for awhile because what green I had poping up thru my lawn sort browned back up.
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#226 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Feb 14, 2006 5:33 pm

cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:
Tyler wrote:
cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:
Tyler wrote:
cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:Back on the subject of the upcoming cold. I noticed some of this afternoon's AFD's talked about a stronger front coming in next Tuesday for us in south Texas which might be Monday for north Texas and the Panhandle. What's the scoop on this one?


Thats the one that will bring us back into winter mode, with below normal temperatures all next week, except for monday. It will be a strong front for the middle of February. Maybe yet another freeze.


For the record, last Saturday night/ Sunday morning, the official temp at CC Airport dropped to 25. Up the road a few miles from my house at a co-op station, the temp came in 23. Interesting that some of our temps down here were just as cold or even colder than the Houston area. I am going to guess I was in the upper 20's at my house.


That is interesting! During that December arctic blast, you guys were colder than Houston at some times.


We didn't officially get below freezing during that snap. In fact , those temps we had the other day were the first freezing temps (official) we had in Corpus since Dec 26, 2004 which was the day after the Great Snowstorm of 2004.

I could tell Sunday afternoon that we stayed below freezing for awhile because what green I had poping up thru my lawn sort browned back up.
Ya I remember xmas 2004...up here we only got about 2-3 in with a very shallow ice accumulation below the snow...
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#227 Postby jasons2k » Tue Feb 14, 2006 5:47 pm

cheezywxman wrote:
Tyler wrote:
jschlitz wrote:
Tyler wrote:
jschlitz wrote:WELL WELL WELL, I am finally back from NYC :-)

We were supposed to fly home Sun. afternoon, but the airport was closed due to the blizzard, so we finally made it home close to midnight last night. I'll post about the experience in the NYC thread...it was quite amazing.



Just FYI (and you probably already knew this), but that was NYC greatest snowstorm total EVER! You experienced the worst snowstorm for NYC, lucky!


Yes, it was nothing short of AMAZING. It was awesome except for the fact we got stuck in Newark for an extra day when the airport closed.

I do have quite a story to tell - when I have time I will post a full narrative with pictures, but yes, for all you snow lovers, it was indeed most incredible - we hit the JACKPOT - definitely a story for the future grandkinds someday (if I live that long :wink: )


Can't wait to see those pictures! You have to think about it for a second though, you just happen to go up there at the EXACT SAME TIME the biggest snowstorm in history effected NYC. I'd say your one lucky guy.
Ill say...it must have been icreadable seeing nearly 27 in. of snow pile up rite where u were...U are so lucky!!!


Hey Tyler and Cheezy - yes, I was very, very happy when I realized on Thursday, especially by Friday, what was about to happen. My wife definitely got an earful and I can't tell you guys how many times I said to her "can you believe this? what are the odds? the first time we come up here we happen to get THE biggest snowstorm in the city's history". There were so many times I wish I could log onto S2K to share the experience with you guys (and get some updates) but just wasn't able to. It really was a dream come true...at least until we got to the airport and got stranded.

The hotel staff was genuinely shocked. On Friday night I heard them tell someone checking-in "oh, it won't be a big deal, we get snowstorms like this all the time". Yeah. Right.

Anyway, many more details to come when I have time to write it down. My wife leaves town again tomorrow so I'll have some time later this week.

PS, Brent, thanks for thinking of us :-) I was thinking of all you guys as well and REALLY wanting to post.
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#228 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Feb 14, 2006 5:50 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote: ...and Angleton hit 24F. I would call that quite a cold night for sure, and many of my predictions did not bust, and the ones that did were only by 1-2F.


I am posting here what I did on another thread so that others may see it...

"First of all...Angleton's airport temps are always too low. They DO need to be recalibrated. I live there....within 4 miles of the airport (and the airport is CLOSER to the coast!)...and I was at 29.8F for a low and I AM calibrated to the 1/10th of a degree with a certified thermometer.

Second...did you bother to look at LBX's temps at all or just their low? They went from 25F to 30F to 24F all in the space of 2 hours. Does that sound like a well calibrated instrument to you? Yesterday they were 29F...I was 33F. The sensor they have doesn't do real bad when it is warmer...but flakes out when it gets cold. I live there...I'm telling you it wasn't 24F. I have 2 thermometers at my house...even the one near the pasture (which runs about 2 F colder) was only 28F on the 12th."

BTW...during the afternoons...our high temps are almost always the same...and during the fall, spring and summer our lows are close. Before anyone starts calling for a heat island effect on me...I live ner a huge pasture in a fairly wooded area in Angleton....not a lot of concrete around there and my sensor is 100' away from any concrete anyway (which is only the street I live on). I think the sensor gets wacky with cold lows...and I've seen that happen before with automated systems.

My question for you is if LBX's temps. are up to 4F wrong...then why does the NWS recognize them as an official reporting station? wouldn't they have realized this already and made some changes? Also if this has been going on for awhile, then how come no body has been out there to calibrate their thermometer? Are they positioned in a dip in the earth in which the cold air would sink into during a cold spell? Just some thoughts I had...wondering if you had any answers.
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#229 Postby Portastorm » Tue Feb 14, 2006 6:45 pm

Tyler wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
Tyler wrote:You know what Portastorm! I want to see YOUR forecast. You sure to like to put the beat down on other people's forecast. Yet, you have nothing to show...


Ouch! ... so that's what I get for making light of this weekend's S2K banter about the low temps in Texas huh? :roll:

I did say I was kidding about it but you appear to be smarting from my post. I'm sorry you are. I have no particular beef with you whatsoever.

Here is what I posted on Tuesday, Feb. 7th at 10:33 p.m.:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Tyler, I won't be quite so bold as you but I believe that Austin metro will see a low temperature Sunday morning of 30 degrees. The forecasted low is currently 33 degrees. I bet we hit 27 or 28 at my house here in north Austin.

Highs Sunday won't get above 50. Current high progged is 54.

That's as far as I'm going to go! "
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For the record, we did hit 28 at North Austin, according to the Time Warner Cable News8Austin weather site located close to my house. As for the high on Sunday, I was way wrong ... we were in the mid 60s.


Ok, you made a forecast for 1 city, but not for the number of cities I did, but thats not my point. You said I forecasted an ice age. That is ludicrous. I busted badly and I know that, winds were up too high, and I thought they would go calm. But the point is, I'm still trying to gather from that really bad bust. I'm trying to find out what I can do different next time, trying to understand where I went wrong, and here you go, with some joke to put me and my forecast down. I don't find it very funny.

I have a sense of humor, but not when it's to degrade myself.



Tyler, I have never degraded anyone personally on this board and never will. I'm sorry you feel I did that to you.

Check your PMs.
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#230 Postby Portastorm » Tue Feb 14, 2006 7:16 pm

cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:Back on the subject of the upcoming cold. I noticed some of this afternoon's AFD's talked about a stronger front coming in next Tuesday for us in south Texas which might be Monday for north Texas and the Panhandle. What's the scoop on this one?


It will be interesting to see how the snow pack that will be laid down over the next several days with this Midwest storm will impact our temperatures here in Texas. Maybe it will help keep it a bit colder?
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#231 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Feb 14, 2006 7:25 pm

Here are my latest ideas on this upcoming pattern...

Wednesday and Thursday = HOT! We will see some of the warmest weather in weeks. Highs will get close to 80F each day under partly sunny skies.

Friday = Break out the coats again! Highs will only manage the upper 50s in north Houston with mostly cloudy skies and lows Friday night will be in the middle 40s. There is a 30-40% chance of rain.

Saturday and Sunday = Overcast and chilly with a 40-50% chance of showers each day. Highs in the lower to middle 50s (if even) with a northerly breeze. Lows will not be too much cooler than the highs and will only be in the 40s.

Monday = We dry out and warm up on Monday. Highs reach the middle 60s under a partly cloudy sky.

Mid Next week = Another cold front rushes in from the north. Models are showing a lot more cold air reaching the area with this next system and the snow laid in the plains this weekend will only help. We may be in for highs below 50 and lows below 35 mid next week with another good precip. event. North Texas looks to be in for ice/snow threats next week..but exactly how far south the freezing line pushes will be the key. Lots to watch...


Here is a look at the GFS at 204 hrs..
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _204.shtml
^^Looks cold and wet...probably colder than this weekend. More of a trough set up in the plains.^^
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#232 Postby southerngale » Tue Feb 14, 2006 7:37 pm

When Portastorm said that it was Tyler and Extremeweatherguy who predicted the advent of the next Ice Age and Wooly Mammoths running rampant along I-10, I thought it was a light-hearted comment. You two were clearly calling for it much colder and I'm sure Portastorm was just remembering some of the posts from the week. I went through some, skipping around as there are just so many and then stopped on Thursday as it was getting too time-consuming. lol

Anyway, I'm sure his light-hearted comment came from posts like these. No harm meant by him, I'm sure. :)

Posted: Sat Feb 04, 2006 12:06 pm
Extremeweatherguy wrote: What's this? winter weather in Houston in 7 days (instead of the usual 14-15). May be the GFS is onto something this time. We will need to watch following runs closely. If it still looks like this in a few days, then ice/sleet/snow may be on the way! :eek: Let's hope it is right...


Posted: Sat Feb 04, 2006 4:11 pm
Tyler wrote:Bottom line, the arctic air is coming, and it will shock the nation.


Posted: Sat Feb 04, 2006 4:40 pm
Tyler wrote:Teens perhaps!?


Posted: Sat Feb 04, 2006 4:41 pm
Extremeweatherguy wrote:If we got PERFECT radiational cooling...then I would not rule out teens as a possibility. IF we did get teens it would be the coldest since 1996.


Posted: Sat Feb 04, 2006 4:44 pm
Extremeweatherguy wrote: Also, I would predict a winter weather forecast by Thursday if the models look the same at that point.


Posted: Sat Feb 04, 2006 4:59 pm
Tyler wrote:Folks, thats cold, I don't care who you are. Highs in the 30's and 40's, with lows in the teens and 20's. I'm shivering right now looking at that...

The EURO has been showing this for a while now, and the GFS is finally catching on.


Posted: Sat Feb 04, 2006 5:09 pm
Extremeweatherguy wrote: YES! VERY COLD! I went to a temperature converter and -8C at 850mb would equate to 17.6F were we to get PERFECT radiational cooling. IF we did not get good radiational cooling, then we probably would not see teens, but with low dewpoints we would be able to probably see a hard freeze even with thick clouds...and this is if the cold air goes east. Yes, believe it or not, but that cold air the GFS is showing is even with the coldest air going east. If the high is stronger, and the coldest air came straight at SE Texas, then 850mb temps. below -9C would be possible in Houston.


Posted: Sat Feb 04, 2006 5:18 pm
Extremeweatherguy wrote:wow. that is one heck of a serious temp. outlook for the CPC to put out. I don't think I have ever seen something that drastic. They are usually biased warm...they must have a really bad feeling about this cold that's coming. I'm starting to wonder.....what if JB is right about the 1899 scenario this time? :eek: lol.


Posted: Sat Feb 04, 2006 5:52 pm
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Obviously...I was being sarcastic. But it may very well be the coldest since 1996 or 1989.


Posted: Sat Feb 04, 2006 5:57 pm
Tyler wrote:Yes we know that :wink: , however, this could be the coldest blast since 1996.
A 1050MB+ High diving out of Canada with bitterly cold air is nothing to laugh at.


Posted: Sat Feb 04, 2006 6:53 pm
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:Something like Feb 96 would be nice, and although not likely at all, there is a slight chance of it. Lowest here in Memphis during that outbreak was 4 degrees, several areas around here got below zero.
I wouldn't say not likely at all. At this point it seems very possible.


Sat Feb 04, 2006 11:20 pm
Tyler wrote:
PTPatrick wrote:I dont know about the GFS bias, but that long range 10+ days out appears to be status quo for this winter...i.e no arctic outbreak. Still looks cool this week, but all the sudden the model is calling for a warm up again beyond 7-8 days. I dont like this...I was all fired up for a cold february. I havent seen temps in the 20's yet this year, which is a first for me in a long time in Mobile. I know we have had some hard freezes in the past couple of years, although nothing really frigid since the 2000-2001 winter


1st off, this is just one model run. Second, the GFS is in error with that energy undercutting the ridge in the Pac NW. Your going to see more than 20's next weekend. Take that to the bank.


Posted: Sun Feb 05, 2006 5:13 pm
Extremeweatherguy wrote:I think that the GFS is still too warm..but the 18Z run still shows precip. mixing with cold air on day 6. If we are cold enough we may have a winter weather threat...but either way; it will be the coldest air in awhile. The other models are even colder than the GFS though..so I feel the GFS temps. will bust by at least 5-10 degrees.


Posted: Sun Feb 05, 2006 7:47 pm
Extremeweatherguy wrote:I think this is a great forecast. I agree with it completely right now, and yes...like you said...it is still 6 days out, so changes may have to be made. Saturday night (exactly 6 days away) will certaintly be interesting. IF all the perameters are in place, then the wintry mix looks like it would be very likely...but at this time...accumulations look like they would be light at best...may be a glazing of ice on bridges and overpasses with a glaze of ice on plants, and then may be a thin trace of snow on car hoods, mailboxes and roofs...and that's IF this verifies. The worst case scenario would probably be an inch or two of snow...but since moisture looks to be limited; I would doubt we see an event like that. Anyways, can't wait to see what the models do over the next few days..and I HOPE we get some winter weather out of this event.


Posted: Sun Feb 05, 2006 10:37 pm
Extremeweatherguy wrote:BRRRR!!! Sat/Sun will probably be as cold or colder than the cold snap we got during early December. If these latest runs play out...I would expect at least one day to feature a high below 40. Also...if we can get good radiational cooling...teens are possible. We are now only talking 5-6 days away too...this is beginning to look more and more likely. Winter precip. continues to look more and more likely too. Can't wait (for the possible winter weather that is.)!


Posted: Mon Feb 06, 2006 12:18 pm
Tyler wrote:Most likely. Models continue to under-estimate how cold these canadian airmasses really are.

Better enjoy these "warm" temperatures right now, highs will be stuck in the 40's this weekend!


Posted: Mon Feb 06, 2006 3:59 pm
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Tyler wrote:Houston NWS kisses the GFS MOS this afternoon. There is no way we're reaching the mid 50's on Saturday. Strong CAA, cloudy, 850MB -4 to -6 degrees C, and we're going to reach the mid 50's!? Don't think so.
yeah, seriously. With that set up I would doubt we reached the mid 40s...let alone mid 50s. Of course they will change it though...but it will probably be the DAY OF the event (Example = early Dec. cold snap). The NWS will bust once again...


Posted: Mon Feb 06, 2006 4:20 pm
Extremeweatherguy wrote:I am still on for my idea of a high below 45 and a low below 30 this weekend.


Posted: Mon Feb 06, 2006 8:28 pm
Tyler wrote:I agree with that 44 as high. All of SE TX will likely be stuck in the lower or mid 40's Saturday, not to mention its going to be REALLY windy, so wind chills may become a factor.


Posted: Mon Feb 06, 2006 8:45 pm
Extremeweatherguy wrote:This is MY idea of what is coming this weekend:

Friday night = Temps. steady near 45-49 overnight, but falling rapidly after overnight frontal passage into the upper 30s. 30% chance of showers. Overcast and breezy.

Saturday = Temperatures nearly steady all day with highs in the 39-46 degree range. Overcast and windy with gusts to 30+mph and a 30% chance of light showers.

Saturday night = Mostly cloudy and cold. Winds becoming light and variable. Lows 24-30 degrees. 20% chance of freezing rain or a few sleet pellets/snow flakes. Little or no accumulation. All wet surfaces (from earlier rain) will freeze.

Sunday = Partly cloudy and very chilly. Highs in the upper 40s and breezy. Winds 5-15mph with gusts to 25mph.

Sunday night = Clear and cold. Low of 24-28 degrees.


***Now this will change day by day, but as of now, this is MY idea of what will happen. This is not -removed- either....if it was, then I would have mentioned a good 3" of snow in the forecast instead of a mere 20% chance of winter weather. :wink: Hopefully I will be able to change that for the better. ***


Posted: Tue Feb 07, 2006 11:24 am
Tyler wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:It doesn't seem like this cold snap will be as cold as originally thought. Looks like now we'll barely have a light freeze this weekend and a few frosty mornings this week before the GFS warms us back up next week to normal/above normal. This really is a pathetic winter!


*bangs head on desk* PLEASE LOOK AT MORE MODELS THAN THE GFS!! Its not the all knowing model (but why do people think that?) and it never was. The GFS is a severe outlier in this whole thing. All global models have a 1045MB high dive bombing into the south, while the GFS is only 1035+. Its going to be wrong folks, heck even the NAM is with the Euro in regards to the strong high. So its the NAM, Euro, and all other global models vs. GFS, and your going to agree with the GFS!?!?



I hope I have proved my point, and if not, then you guys can continue to place all your bets on the GFS, you just better be ready to lose all of your money...


Posted: Tue Feb 07, 2006 11:50 am
Tyler wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:While I agree that the European looks cold I'm basing my opinions on how the NWS is pretty much splitting the differences between the warmer GFS and the colder European. We'll see what happens but if you think we have extreme cold coming this weekend (teens/low 20's for my area) you're likely wrong. 55/30 isn't all that big of a deal for the second week in February.


Excuse me? Your putting words in my mouth. Where in the world did I say extreme cold!? All I said is it will likley be colder than what the GFS is showing, MUCH COLDER. Also, highs will likely struggle to reach 50, and stay stuck in the 40's. Not sure about mid 50's like you say, unless clouds clear, which they most likely will not.

I really hate it when people put words in my mouth.


Posted: Tue Feb 07, 2006 11:55 am
Tyler wrote:
Brent wrote:The mets seem to be backing down from this "arctic" outbreak. I do agree it'll get colder, but is Upper 20's for a low in Houston in Mid-February that unusual? It also looks like it moderates back to normal quickly.

Fortunately the ridiclously warm weather seems to be over for awhile.


Its funny, the Euro has shown the EXACT same solution for this weekend for I don't know how many runs. The GFS flip-flops every run, and ridiculously shows the high way too weak as it passes into the US, and yet METS will kiss the GFS like its the all-knowing. I said it before and I'll say it again, forecasts this weekend will likely bust by as much as 15 degrees. But I agree with you Brent, the ridicuosly warm weather is finally over! :) Oh and also, upper 20's are not very common here in Houston in February. Many record lows for February are around 25-30 degrees. So yes, it is unusual.


Posted: Tue Feb 07, 2006 12:46 pm
Tyler wrote:Don't you guys get it? The NWS is leaning more towards the pathetic inconsistent GFS, THATS why ya'lls forecasts are so warm. They are going the inbetween route, which is what you should do. But now, this is model disagreement is getting ridiculous.


Posted: Tue Feb 07, 2006 3:16 pm
Extremeweatherguy wrote:I have a few things to remind people of. First off...those records that some keep referring to, are the records of the more modern era. The NWS does not show the records for before 1927. What does that do? LEAVE OUT MOST OF FEBRUARY'S GREATEST COLD SNAPS! For example, during the 1899 cold snap...Houston hit 6 degrees on Feb. 12th and 13th...so if you look at it in those perspectives, then no; this cold snap should not see overall record breaking lows, but it may get cold enough to break records since 1927.


Posted: Tue Feb 07, 2006 5:30 pm
Extremeweatherguy wrote:HAS ANYONE SEEN THE 12Z NOGAPS! It is by far the coldest of any model I have seen. It has 850mb temps. down to between -10C and -15C on Sunday. It also has thickness values down to 528hpa. Another intresting thing is that it has a 1036mb High over Texas on Sunday! Could you imagine the radiational cooling. I am in no way saying the NOGAPS will be anywhere close to right...but if it were (-10 to -15C temps.) and clear, windless skies could lead to lows reaching levels not seen in February since the 1800s.


Posted: Tue Feb 07, 2006 9:02 pm
Tyler wrote:Extreme, LOOK AT THE ANGLE THE COLD IS COMING IN! Can you say lower 20's!!! That is the PERFECT position for the high and the PERFECT angle that the cold is coming in. I love you NAM. :D Will it be right, well, it matches up with the Euro nicely, as well as Canadian and NOGAPS, so yes it probably will be...

Too bad there isn't snowcover or we'd easily be in the teens...


Posted: Tue Feb 07, 2006 9:12 pm
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Yeah. the latest modeling makes me think that north Texas will see teens...the Houston area will see lower 20s...the corpus area will see mid 20s and the far southern reaches of Texas may see a light freeze (down near Brownsville). I would not be surprised to see an isolated teen report (19F) in the Houston area though! :eek:


Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 6:35 am
Extremeweatherguy wrote:I still think the NWS forecast is way too warm. Highs will not be the 50s..and lows will not be in the upper 20s...we will be at least 5-10 degrees colder. I am glad to see consistancy with the GFS though. It has looked cold for the last 3 runs.


Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 9:23 am
Tyler wrote:With the GFS trending colder, finally along the lines of the EURO, I bet the lowest we see at IAH sunday morning is 22. That would be a record low, and its quite possible.


Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 9:27 am
Extremeweatherguy wrote:I am predicting 19-21F at my house on Sunday morning.


Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 9:34 am
Tyler wrote:
Portastorm wrote:22 at IAH?

Jeff (pro met here on s2k) sent out a note this morning to his subscribers and says upper 20s north of I-10 but only if ideal radiational cooling exists, otherwise warmer.

Extreme, you're living up to your username!


Wow, I'm suprised. 850 temps -6 to -8 across the area, arctic airmass, and yet we only see upper 20's? I don't think so. This morning, IAH saw the mid 30's, when upper 30's were forecasted, and this airmass was really not that cold at all, 850 temps around 2+. I think many are REALLY underestimating the strength of this airmass. Corpus Christi NWS is forecasting upper 20's for Victoria, I have NEVER seen IAH warmer than Victoria at night (except for X-mas '04, but that was just a crazy situation and weather pattern).


Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 10:17 am
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Portastorm wrote:22 at IAH?

Jeff (pro met here on s2k) sent out a note this morning to his subscribers and says upper 20s north of I-10 but only if ideal radiational cooling exists, otherwise warmer.

Extreme, you're living up to your username!

well when it ends up hitting below 25 on Sunday morning at IAH...don't say I didn't warn you... :wink:


Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 12:24 pm
Tyler wrote:The high on Saturday is NOT going to be 50. You can take that to the bank. All of SE TX and LA will be stuck in the 40s with VERY strong cold air advection and cloudy conditions, the strongest we've seen this season. The forecasted lows are ok however.


Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 3:10 pm
Extremeweatherguy wrote:yes...looks like things are really coming together. I would not be surprised to see upper teens at Conroe and Hooks and near 20 at IAH in the worst case scenario. Also...I do not see our high getting above 45 on Saturday...and I think we actually will see our high in the morning with falling temps. through the afternoon. We will probably be in the 30s for a good chunk of the afternoon with the strong CAA. I HOPE we can squeeze a surprise flurry out of this too! :D


Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 3:53 pm
Tyler wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:I still think they are way too warm. Every event I have seen like this in my life ends up never reaching 50 during the day. Also...the overnight lows will be much colder than the upper 20s...especially with the PERFECT radiational cooling conditions they are expecting. We hit 35 at Hooks this morning with 850mb temps. above 0C...so to say that we won't be at least 10 degrees colder under a much more significant system makes no sense. Still no actual forecast out yet...but I have a feeling that they will still not be forecasting as cold as we will be seeing.


I strongly agree. Lows around 30 at BUSH!? LOL, its going to be colder than that, by about 5 to 6 degrees. Also, why the heck are mid 50's STILL forecasted!? Again, they are taking MOS guidance verbatim here. They explain how chilly this airmass is, and yet they forecast it like its from the pacific or something. A pro met on another board told me highs would likely not reach 50 saturday, so I have no idea what Houston is talking about.

At any rate, this may be the case where the freaking arctic air has to actually BE in front of their faces (like last December) to see how actually cold its going to be. If you can remember, that day we were stuck in the mid 30's, they forecasted mid 40's the day before. Thats a bust of 10 degrees. Looks like thats about to happen here again folks...


Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 3:55 pm
Extremeweatherguy wrote:well the NWS is still forecasting 55/29 for Saturday in Spring. It is as if they are taking the models and throwing them out the window. The December system NEVER had 850mb temps. this cold...so to say that this system will be warmer is really quite amazing. -8C 850mb temps. are not seen everyday in Houston and if we were to get that PERFECT radiational cooling which they think we will see...it would not be 29..but instead more like 20. May be the morning shift will put out a better forecast...


Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 3:58 pm
Tyler wrote:HOLY CRAP. Its a 1055 (yes, that is correct, no typo) over Colorado at 66. Watch out...


PostPosted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 4:09 pm
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Holy! -9C 850mb air! That would yield widespread 18-22F readings were we to see that "prefect" radiational cooling that the NWS expects. What a bust this will be for the NWS (and on-air mets too, who probably will still be 10+F too high in tonight's forecasts).


Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 4:16 pm
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Tyler wrote:Ch. 2 went pretty much with the NWS this weekend.
how sad for them. they will bust big time. Hopefully Houstonions will get enough warning before this cold snap...but I am afraid that they will not. It will be a big shocker when the Sunday morning AFD by the NWS says, "The forecasted low of 30 has busted. This morning Hooks is sitting at 17F, Bush at 20F, and Hobby at 24F. Due to our lack of warning; All exposed animals and sensitive plants have parished. We are sorry we did not warn you earlier, but we were too afraid that we would give an inaccurate forecast. Well, looks like we did anyway." :roll:


Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 4:25 pm
Tyler wrote:LOL, ya I agree they are going to bust. However, I'm not going to go quite as cold with temps as you are. I'll say 21 Hooks, 24 Bush, and 27 Hobby, Galveston 32. It will be interesting this weekend, to say the least.


Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 4:56 pm
Extremeweatherguy wrote:how sad is it that we non-professionals will probably do a better job than the NWS with this forecast! I mean come on! You would think that a trained met would see that the models and pattern spell COLD. No, not a chilly 30...but a COLD 19-24. I am amazed by the poor forecasts I see sometimes being put out by these weather agencies. I mean how can the NWS take -5 to -10C 850mb temps and 530 thickness and mix that with PERFECT radiational cooling and only forecast 29-30? :think:


Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 7:01 pm
Extremeweatherguy wrote:This is my latest NORTH HOUSTON (Including Spring, Klein, Tomball and the Woodlands) prediction:

Saturday - Mostly cloudy, windy and cold. High in the middle 40s. 20% chance of a light shower.

Saturday night - Clearing and very cold. Winds dying to near calm. Lows in the lower to middle 20s with isolated teens. Coldest air since March 2003 when IAH hit 22.


Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 7:51 pm
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Bottom line is that these numbers are very cold. The NOGAPS numbers resemble the numbers seen during the December 1989 arctic outbreak! Looking at these numbers...I would have to say that teens look very very possible in parts of SE Texas on Sunday morning with WIDESPREAD temps. below 27. This could very well turn out being the coldest air since 1996 (when IAH hit 19F). Can't wait to see the 0Z GFS and 0Z NAM which should start to come in within a few hours. If numbers are still this low tomorrow, then I have no doubt that the NWS will HAVE TO lower their forecasts. Saying 29-30F with 850mb temps. this low and such great radiational cooling is ridiculous. We hit 27-28F at Hooks earlier this winter with 850mb temps. only near -2C...so if we saw -6C to -15C 850mb temps...you can just imagine how cold it can be.


Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 8:36 pm
Extremeweatherguy wrote: Though it may be short...these 850mb temps. and thicknesses will be MUCH lower than the early December cold snap. For many places...similar or colder lows could occur with this system as did occur with that system. If we do get good radiational cooling...then your area will be in the teens for sure. Your NWS and the Houston NWS have based their forecasts off of the MOS guidance at 12Z...since then...the models have become MUCH colder, thus, if this trend continues, it should be a MUCH colder forecast tomorrow (If the NWS starts to get smart). I would expect You and I's temperature forecasts to go down by a good 10 degrees over the next few days. If you take the temps. forecasted by the NWS today and subtract 10 degrees; THAT is a good bet on how cold it will get during this systems visit. The potential is certainly there for record lows. Now of course things can change...but this is my idea for now. As for next week...another cold blast is definitely possible.


Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 10:51 pm
vbhoutex wrote:
Tyler wrote:Coming off of the warmest January has nothing to do with anything. What does matter is snow cover. Which is why IAH won't be seeing any teens, instead lower to mid 20s. If we did have snow cover in the plains, oh man, than this would be HUGE.


HUH???? Are you both trying to tell me that warm temps do not warm the soils? Try again. Just as cool temps cool the soils(exwx said it) a long run of above normal temps will warm them. Part of the reason we do not have the snow cover we normally would this time of year is because of the warm January temps.


Posted: Thu Feb 09, 2006 6:33 am
Extremeweatherguy wrote:well the latest NWS forecast is cooler, but not cold yet. The interesting thing is that they have us in the middle 30s with precipitation on Friday night (which is getting on the edge there of wintry precip). Their latest forecast for saturday is in the lower 50s with a low in the upper 20s. Still a little too warm...but much better than yesterday's 56-30.


Posted: Thu Feb 09, 2006 3:45 pm
Tyler wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:the NWS low temps. are still to high (28F) if we are going to see those decoupling winds and clear skies. With 850mb temps. below -6C...we WILL see lower to middle 20s if we get good radiational cooling...no doubt about it.


Agreed.


Posted: Thu Feb 09, 2006 3:50 pm
Tyler wrote:Yes, I agree. C'mon guys, we told ya it would be getting colder and there was a pattern change coming, yet some people didn't believe us. Well, the pattern change has already taken place, and now ya'll are arguing its not going to get cold? Look, when you wake up sunday morning and you walk outside and its 25 degrees, don't say I didn't warn you.

And if I'm wrong, I'll eat a rotten tomatoe, or something...


Posted: Thu Feb 09, 2006 3:54 pm
Tyler wrote:Houston's forecast now calls for upper 20's saturday night (brrrr!). The only thing I have a problem with, is they fail to mention falling temps into the 40's friday, and they also have saturday's highs to high. We won't reach 50, you can count on that.


Posted: Thu Feb 09, 2006 4:11 pm
Extremeweatherguy wrote:ok for all those in Houston who think IAH will be 29+...

The forecast low in VICTORIA is 27 on Sunday night! I do not see how a place south of us, could end up being 2 degrees colder then what you are thinking Houston will be (unless there was clouds here and not there, or something similar...which is not expected). If Victoria hits 27...then I would expect at least 25 at IAH.


Posted: Thu Feb 09, 2006 5:29 pm
Extremeweatherguy wrote:yeah I have noticed that too. I don't understand it. They should be warning the people now...not waiting to warn them when it is too late. Many Channel 2 watchers may happen to miss the Sat. night newscast and not know to cover their plants. What a surprise for them when they awake to dead flowers and plants on Sunday morning.
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#233 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Feb 14, 2006 7:39 pm

I'm not totally sure about this storm...but my thoughts on it(assuming both accu and TWC have us in the upper 30's)is that we will see mid 30's both saturday and sunday...the chances for a NTX ice storm are increasing significantly
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#234 Postby southerngale » Tue Feb 14, 2006 7:40 pm

Btw, I did learn some things about the models. That massive thread was interesting!
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#235 Postby jkt21787 » Tue Feb 14, 2006 7:45 pm

Wow, Southerngale, how long did it take you to find all those quotes and put them in the post!? :lol:

BTW thanks for the nod to me with a quote of my own :wink: Obviously it wasn't even close to 96. Lowest I got was 18, which we had just back in Dec!
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#236 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Feb 14, 2006 7:46 pm

cheezywxman wrote:I'm not totally sure about this storm...but my thoughts on it(assuming both accu and TWC have us in the upper 30's)is that we will see mid 30's both saturday and sunday...the chances for a NTX ice storm are increasing significantly


does anybody have anymore thoughts or predictions for this weekend in the NTX/ Oklahoma area?
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#237 Postby Tyler » Tue Feb 14, 2006 7:49 pm

southerngale, some of those posts I made came to truth, for instance, that quote of when I tried to explain the Euro had the right strength of the high, and it did. I NEVER forecasted teens, I just said it was possible. Was it really nessessary to post ALL of those posts? Are you happy now southerngale? Yay, you've made sure everyone knows how bad I busted now. THANK YOU! Your such a great moderator. You really love making trying to make me look stupid southerngale, its a little disturbing, to say the least...

You are trying to say all those quotes from me were predicting an ice age, I don't see it. This whole situation is BS. Can we all stop trying to degrade myself already?
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#238 Postby Tyler » Tue Feb 14, 2006 7:50 pm

jkt21787 wrote:Wow, Southerngale, how long did it take you to find all those quotes and put them in the post!? :lol:

BTW thanks for the nod to me with a quote of my own :wink: Obviously it wasn't even close to 96. Lowest I got was 18, which we had just back in Dec!


I was just pointing out possibilities, I wasn't forecasting anything. Excuse me for speculating... This is a weather board, where you discuss the weather.
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#239 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Tue Feb 14, 2006 7:57 pm

Wow, Southerngale! Are you going to turn over ExtremWxguy and Tyler to a Grand Jury for indictments? :lol:
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#240 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Feb 14, 2006 7:57 pm

Alright...I know im new here...but Ive been reading posts here since the december icestorm and I can tell that Tyler's busted a few times...But havent we all? I mean c'mon, I know that Tyler wasn't predicting an "ice age"... and he said there was a possibility of upper teens and lower 20's for last weekend...but ya I dont think it was necessary at all to put in all those posts, southern gale
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