(New!!) Cold for the Deep South (Models, Maps, Discussion)

[Tyler]

Not trying to change the subject here b/c I do like to see conflict... but I think that maybe that was it for freezing temps here in the Houston area. Anyone disagree? March is two weeks away and the pattern has changed once again. We were 80 something today. Maybe a Winters Over thread for Houston??

I wish that were the case, however, next week we could have another freeze.

The upcoming pattern is favorable for much below average temperatures to last a while for Texas. This weekend, zonal flow and a ridge trying to build in the Gulf will help to push the brunt of the cold away from here. If it wasn't for that, we would be in the freezer next weekend. However, next week, the pattern shifts slightly. The trough in the west becomes inverted, and in a favorable position for continuous shots of cold Canadian air to push through Texas. In fact, this is one of those patterns next week where the coldest air comes to Texas first, and then warms up a bit as it passes east. Kinda like December. The cold air comes straight south, rather than southeast.

Next week, a strong front will push through on Tuesday, and it will have a good bite to it. The extremely cold air will have already been tapped, like AFM had alluded too, so this won't be an extreme arctic airmass, however, the air behind the front will still be cold for mid to late Feb. Below average temperatures should stick around next week for a while...

[cheezyWXguy]

Not trying to change the subject here b/c I do like to see conflict... but I think that maybe that was it for freezing temps here in the Houston area. Anyone disagree? March is two weeks away and the pattern has changed once again. We were 80 something today. Maybe a Winters Over thread for Houston??

I dont think so, rock...as tyler mentioned a few moments ago in amother thread, it looks like after this weekend the pattern changes...artic are continuously flows into the u.s. for the next week or so and it looks like there is potential for each one to be at least as strong as the last

[cheezyWXguy]

I think i will be dealing with more than 1 winter sotrm over the next 7 days...

[southerngale]

Alright...I know im new here...but Ive been reading posts here since the december icestorm and I can tell that Tyler's busted a few times...But havent we all? I mean c'mon, I know that Tyler wasn't predicting an "ice age"... and he said there was a possibility of upper teens and lower 20's for last weekend...but ya I dont think it was necessary at all to put in all those posts, southern gale

Portastorm was just JOKING about the Ice Age. I was showing why. I couldn't have known that Tyler would get so upset about seeing his own posts.

And you've been here all of 2 days...you really don't know anything about me, nor did this have anything to do with Tyler busting. Nothing at all. Like I said in another post early on in this thread, weather is very hard to predict! It's not matter-of-fact.

If yall are like me...youre here to learn about the weather and find out about potential storms and and other things like that...not busting each other's asses about stupid things like busted predictions and possibilities...this especially goes out to you, southerngale...I think you owe Tyler an apology

Yeah, I've been here for years, and I've learned a lot about the weather. Once again, nobody was busting anyone's "booty" - Portastorm made a joke. I'm sure he never will again after all of this though!! (or at least not with certain people)

A bit of advice...you might want to think twice about telling me how I should mod. You're new here, so I'll cut you some slack. If you have a problem with me though, PM an admin or another mod.

Seriously...is it such a bad thing to have a prediction bust...I mean cmon some ppl here are taking this to a huge extreme, just cuz tyler busted by a few degrees on a forecast doesnt mean that you should kill him over it...besides hes not the only one who messed up. Also he have a huge system moving through Texas over the next week...I think we should be paying more attention to that than ranting ppl off on there predictions from the past...

Ok, once again...it all seems to be going over your head or you're just missing something. This has nothing to do with anyone's prediction bust. EVERYONE busts. Absolutely nothing to do with it.

[cheezyWXguy]

ok whoa whoa whoa...didnt i just admit i was getting ahead of myself...

[cheezyWXguy]

now c'mon...ok i'm sorry...i no i was getting ahead of myself...now can we please get bak on with the weather...im starting to get a bit hasty about next week...

[southerngale]

ok whoa whoa whoa...didnt i just admit i was getting ahead of myself...

I had already hit reply and started typing that. I'm working too so I can't just sit here and read everything as it comes out, so it may take me a few minutes to comment on something. I haven't even read everything yet, but saw this.

[cheezyWXguy]

this forum isnt the only thing in my life...I have other things I have to put up with like school...school wasnt the best day for me today...so wen I see a conflict or sumthing on the forum...this isnt the 1st place I see it...now I tend to get a head of myself a lot and start saying things I dont mean(I can thank my hormones for that) and I'm sorry

[Brent]

Hey guys, we've ALL busted forecasts. I think Tyler and EWG are great guys and I'm glad to have them on the board!!

Here's my $.02 on the situation though...in the long thread there were plenty of dissenting opinions, from myself and some of the pro-mets on this outbreak, and it seemed no matter what we said, it was quickly discarded and a response with something to the effect of "it IS coming" (in caps), etc. It's one thing to post a forecast and bust. It's another to almost constantly discard others' opinions and so emphatically preach the massive arctic express is going to rival other historical outbreaks. I'm sorry but when you do that, you're just asking for it IMO. I think that's the point/lesson Southergale may have been trying to make.

Please don't take it persaonally. Just chill a bit, and maybe not be so emphatic on what you think's gonna happen.

Remember that little post I made last week when I said: Often, the people that criticize the most before an event are the ones who end up getting burned when it's over? I think we all just witnessed it.

THANK YOU!!! It is not a personal jab at anyone. I know Southerngale, and she didn't mean any harm in posting all those quotes. Geez...

[Tyler]

Alright...I know im new here...but Ive been reading posts here since the december icestorm and I can tell that Tyler's busted a few times...But havent we all? I mean c'mon, I know that Tyler wasn't predicting an "ice age"... and he said there was a possibility of upper teens and lower 20's for last weekend...but ya I dont think it was necessary at all to put in all those posts, southern gale

Portastorm was just JOKING about the Ice Age. I was showing why. I couldn't have known that Tyler would get so upset about seeing his own posts.
.

It was in the way you did it that got me upset. "Well hey guys, see all these posts! This is why we think he's predicting an ice age, look at how bad he busted! I know he's already admitted to his bust, I just thought I would stir the pot some more..." I'll open to critisism to my forecasts. But IMO, this was WAY over the line.

It was totally un-necessary to post what you did, it contributed nothing to the topic, and just made everything worse, after the conflict was settled, and you know it. The title of this thread is "upcoming cold for the south". Your posts, as well as mine, have been completely off-topic and unnecessary to the topic at hand. This is my last post on this matter, as I just want it to go, plus I don't want to get banned.

Back to the weather then...

[cheezyWXguy]

ya, I had my last post on the matter...back to the weather...accu has me for i high in the upper 30's on friday and saturday so it looks like things are looking even colder...maybe yall back in SE TX will see colder that 50's

[southerngale]

Hey guys, we've ALL busted forecasts. I think Tyler and EWG are great guys and I'm glad to have them on the board!!

Here's my $.02 on the situation though...in the long thread there were plenty of dissenting opinions, from myself and some of the pro-mets on this outbreak, and it seemed no matter what we said, it was quickly discarded and a response with something to the effect of "it IS coming" (in caps), etc. It's one thing to post a forecast and bust. It's another to almost constantly discard others' opinions and so emphatically preach the massive arctic express is going to rival other historical outbreaks. I'm sorry but when you do that, you're just asking for it IMO. I think that's the point/lesson Southergale may have been trying to make.

Please don't take it persaonally. Just chill a bit, and maybe not be so emphatic on what you think's gonna happen.

Remember that little post I made last week when I said: Often, the people that criticize the most before an event are the ones who end up getting burned when it's over? I think we all just witnessed it.

Good post. And I did try to make that point...check back to my posts on pages 3 and 5 of this thread. Tyler didn't seem to understand what I was saying.

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow. I leave for a few hours and I come back to 3-4 new pages of posts! Crazy. Anyway, I think we should get over this last weather event and the ensuing arguments and look ahead to the weekend and next weeks weather systems. We can't change what is in the past. I admit that I did say there was a possibility of teens and ice initially with the last system...but for the most part I did not say that kind of stuff once we got closer to the situation. Also, my ideas a few days out were really not that bad. I did get a hard freeze at my house which damaged some of my plants and a few palms, so to me it was a bad freeze...but to others it may have been nothing. My predictions from the day before also only busted by 0-2F, so I would consider that an OK, if not good forecast. Either way..here are my predictions for the next week as I originally posted a few pages back, but it was overshadowed by comments about southerngales post:

Here are my latest ideas on this upcoming pattern...

Wednesday and Thursday = HOT! We will see some of the warmest weather in weeks. Highs will get close to 80F each day under partly sunny skies.

Friday = Break out the coats again! Highs will only manage the upper 50s in north Houston with mostly cloudy skies and lows Friday night will be in the middle 40s. There is a 30-40% chance of rain.

Saturday and Sunday = Overcast and chilly with a 40-50% chance of showers each day. Highs in the lower to middle 50s (if even) with a northerly breeze. Lows will not be too much cooler than the highs and will only be in the 40s.

Monday = We dry out and warm up on Monday. Highs reach the middle 60s under a partly cloudy sky.

Mid Next week = Another cold front rushes in from the north. Models are showing a lot more cold air reaching the area with this next system and the snow laid in the plains this weekend will only help. We may be in for highs below 50 and lows below 35 mid next week with another good precip. event. North Texas looks to be in for ice/snow threats next week..but exactly how far south the freezing line pushes will be the key. Lots to watch...

Here is a look at the GFS at 204 hrs..
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _204.shtml
^^Looks cold and wet...probably colder than this weekend. More of a trough set up in the plains.^^

[cheezyWXguy]

wow, EWG it looks like I could be dealing with an even more significant outbreak next week than this weekend...any new predictions for NTX?

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow, EWG it looks like I could be dealing with an even more significant outbreak next week than this weekend...any new predictions for NTX?

This weekend looks about the same. It will be dependent on temps. in your area...but I do feel that you see some kind of an ice storm in your area. Next week, however, you guys may be set up to receive a more significant storm and may be even some snow...still to far out to know for sure though.

[cheezyWXguy]

wow, EWG it looks like I could be dealing with an even more significant outbreak next week than this weekend...any new predictions for NTX?

This weekend looks about the same. It will be dependent on temps. in your area...but I do feel that you see some kind of an ice storm in your area. Next week, however, you guys may be set up to receive a more significant storm and may be even some snow...still to far out to know for sure though.

it's looking like this is going to be a true "blue norther" up here this weekend...I dont expect highs to get out of the mid 30's on sat and sun with a good deal of ice...to me, next week looks to be more of a mix with snow than this weekend

[cheezyWXguy]

I have a NOAA radio in my bedroom...im listening to it now. I'm listening to hazardous wether outlook...they say that the NW counties of my area will see freezing rain, sleet and snow fir nite thru mon morning

[vbhoutex]

FAIR WARNING TO ALL!!!!!

If I or any other staff find any more personal attacks in this or any other thread the door will slam shut and very quickly!!!! Indeed, if there is any further discussion of the problems the door will shut on the perpetrtors very quickly! STORM2K does not allow personal attacks!!!! This thread got way out of hand and it didn't need to!! I hope I am making myself VERY CLEAR!!!!

Feel free to pm me if you have any questions.

[wxman22]

While everyone else last weekend got to freezing at my house it only got to 35.3 degress it seems like it never gets cold where I leave(never below 40F) but everyone around my area(Medical Center) reports colder temps. My wireless trhemometer sensor is on my window seal wich is about a yard off the ground there also is alot of concrete sourounding it could this be why my temps are allways warmer?

[cheezyWXguy]

loud and clear, vbhoutex, loud and clear