Max Mayfield says that 2006 could be WORSE than 2005!!!!!

[jhamps10]

The Meterologist said this on the news at 10:30 just a couple of minutes ago! This scares me coming straight from Max Mayfield, I am currently researching on this and will get back w/ a link of this. If anyone else has this please chime in. I do not want to speculate on this comment here.

[HURAKAN]

Does anyone know how much they are selling the lots of land in Antarctica?!?!?!?!?!?!

Seriously, I don't believe we will see another 2005 season in a long time; I hope!!!!

[jhamps10]

I hope we don't either. Max says his findings are that because of La Nina going on, it COULD, and may i emphize COULD be worse than 2005.

Another scary thought, Max also says IF you plan to ride out a hurricane, you need to add an ax to your hurricane survial kits.

My hearing is good, but i can't find anything to confirm this on the internet, the only thing I even knew he said this was from KSDK-TV st louis's news after the olmypics tonight.

[skywarn]

Here's an article on what Max Mayfield said. Possibility the 2006 season could surpass 2005.

http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/so ... /65247.htm

[jhamps10]

thanks skywarn, I was just looking for some confirmation to what he said, cause sometimes this metrologist will over exgerate things when dealing w/ tropical info. So it looks true.

[Derek Ortt]

well... as lng as it is not as bad as 1892, when we had 2 2000 death storms, plus the last direct hit on NYC

[Brent]

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I think you mean this season, 1893:

[wxman57]

It sounds like the reporter misunderstood what Max said:

"Mayfield even suggested that due to the La Nina effect, there could be more hurricanes in 2006 than there were in 2005."

I really doubt that Max Mayfield is going around saying there will be more than 27 named storms in 2006. What he probably said is that there tends to be increased activity during a La Nina season. That's true, but the perfect set up for development in 2005 won't likely repeat in 2006. So the La Nina might account for increased activity in general, but there could still be far fewer named storms in 2006 because other parameters won't be nearly as favorable (the very low pressure in the Caribbean, for example). The reporter probably heard that typically, there are more named storms during an El Nino year then incorrectly made the jump to assume that there will be more than 27 named storms in 2006.

[O Town]

I think that is what everyone was saying in the beginning of 2005, it couldn't be a repeat of 2004, but it got worse. So I wouldn't doubt it, I just hope not.

[CHRISTY]

yes i first heard about it this morning!to actually here max mayfield say this,this early really gave me chills...my god i hope everyone takes this warning serious especially coming from a true expert i hope everybody will be ready come june 1.something tells me florida is really gonna get it this year! i hope iam wrong.

[Steve]

>>Another scary thought, Max also says IF you plan to ride out a hurricane, you need to add an ax to your hurricane survial kits

Axes are used to cut/hack your way out of rooftops and such (else you drown).

>>I think that is what everyone was saying in the beginning of 2005, it couldn't be a repeat of 2004, but it got worse. So I wouldn't doubt it, I just hope not...

That's awesome O Town. I don't in any way suspect that 2006 will match 2005, but your comments are sound. No one, especially Floridians, thought 2005 would match their super year with the 4 hurricane hits. 2004 got buried by 2005.

Steve

[Margie]

In areas along the Mississippi River, prone to flooding, it is common to have an ax in the attic. It is better to place it in the attic than to store it elsewhere with other hurricane supplies.

It appears there might be a lot of "typos" in that article. For starters, the first sentence:

"the number of hurricanes have been increasing since 1995 and will continue to do so for the next decade or two"

That could be taken to read that every year will have more hurricanes than the year before it.

"He pointed out that while Katrina was in the Gulf of Mexico, it went within 24 hours from a category one hurricane to a category five."

That would have been Wilma in the Carribbean. Katrina was designated Cat 5 at 7am CDT Sunday, and was a Cat 3, 24 hours prior.

"Mayfield said New Orleans felt category three winds from the storm."

Doubtful he said that either, unless he was referring to gusts at the higher floors of high-rises.

[dhweather]

I think you mean this season, 1893:

another season like that would suck - two more for MS/LA/AL

[Derek Ortt]

yep... meant 1893

[KWT]

Now just pray that we don't have a season with the strength of storms from 04 and the actual amount of systems from 05 otherwise there will be some major trouble.

Thats the only real way I can see 06 surpassing 05, having more powerful storms make landfall, say a few cat-4's for example...only then would I consider that as possibly being worse.

[Scorpion]

In landfallers..perhaps. Hurricane intensity and frequency? I think not.

[wxman22]

[MiamiensisWx]

>>Another scary thought, Max also says IF you plan to ride out a hurricane, you need to add an ax to your hurricane survial kits

Axes are used to cut/hack your way out of rooftops and such (else you drown).

>>I think that is what everyone was saying in the beginning of 2005, it couldn't be a repeat of 2004, but it got worse. So I wouldn't doubt it, I just hope not...

That's awesome O Town. I don't in any way suspect that 2006 will match 2005, but your comments are sound. No one, especially Floridians, thought 2005 would match their super year with the 4 hurricane hits. 2004 got buried by 2005.

Steve

Do you mean that 2006 won't have as many storms as 2005 when you say that, Steve?

[Steve]

>>"Mayfield said New Orleans felt category three winds from the storm."

Definitely did. There was fairly severe wind damage across SE LA and MS even though that is overshadowed in MS by the Gulf surge and LA by the surge and flooding. I had a giant Pecan Tree fall on my house, signs and roofs were ripped to shreds, glass was broken all over and gas station canopies were in tatters. It might be that some of those Cat 3 winds here were in gusts, but they were in the area. I drove Tuesday night down to Slidell where many streets were impassable due to extreme amounts of fallen trees, power lines and light polls. But the best example is about 40 miles away in southern Pearl River County, MS (Picayune, Nicholson and such) where there are just acres and acres of downed trees.

>>Do you mean that 2006 won't have as many storms as 2005 when you say that, Steve?

My personal opinion is that it would be unlikely to see that many storms. But I'm talking more about landfall intensity and impacts. In the sworn testimony of Secretary Chertoff today, much data was discussed about how Katrina alone dwarfs damage caused by Andrew and the 4 2004 FL hits in scope of landmass affected (greater than Great Britain), number of homes destroyed (11 times and 6 times more) and other such things. 2 Katrina-level hits in 2006, even if they didn't hit New Orleans, would more than dwarf the damage in 2005 which was beyond a record year. Let's hope no other major metro areas see the type of pasting we got last year, but if they do, the $$ tallies will rise. Still, I'm thinking 2006 will be active and probably not a recurvature year, but I won't be able to judge until late Spring and certainly we won't know for sure until October or November how bad things were.

Steve