SST'S and Anomalies in Atlantic and Pacific

[mike815]

yeah it sure has

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest graphic of the atlantic anomalys which show some cooling in portions of the Atlantic but also a little bit more warmer ones.Still there is a warm spot of anomalys in the GOM that has been there for three weeks.

[windycity]

cycloneye, that warm spot, is that part of the loop current? it seems too far north, but i hear the loop has expanded . what do you make of it?

[P.K.]

CURRENT STATUS as at 8th February 2006
Next update expected by 22nd February 2006 (two weeks after this update).

| Summary | In Brief | Details |

Summary: La Niña indicators strengthen

Pacific climate patterns evolved during January and early February to the point where, should the current conditions persist for about another three months, it will be an official La Niña event. Subsurface waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific are particularly cool, but surface temperatures are only bordering on La Niña thresholds. In addition, the Southern Oscillation Index is above +10, the Trade Winds have been enhanced in the central to western Pacific and cloudiness remains substantially suppressed in the central Pacific. All these are consistent with a La Niña.

However, it is unknown in the historical record for a La Niña event of any significance (either in terms of duration or intensity), to evolve at this time of year. Accordingly, we cannot assume the typical Australian
La Niña impacts (widespread above average rainfall, floods, increased tropical cyclone numbers) will occur. Similarly, though the autumn period is generally the maximum time of uncertainty for computer model projections, most computer models predict cool conditions persisting over the next few months followed by warming to ENSO neutral conditions by the middle of 2006.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[cycloneye]

Interesting loop of the sst's in the Atlantic that you can follow daily to see how the Atlantic is in terms of more warm or less warm waters.


Thanks P.K. for posting the latest from the Aussies which is close to what Noaa has said.Now let's see what CPC update that will be out tommorow will say about the progression of La Nina.



Graphic above of the Pacific and the latest data of anomalys.It shows la nina holding firm by looking at those blue colors and the numbers in centigrade which are around -1.5c to -2.0c at el nino 3-4 area.

[CHRISTY]

so basically right now la nina is here,but from iam been reading we will probably be back to neutral conditions by maybe july and august...so that tells me we will be right back were we left off last year with neutral conditions.

[MiamiensisWx]

The Atlantic SST anomalies appear to have warmed in some areas slightly...

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest graphic update for the Atlantic and it shows not much change from last weeks data.Still the warm spot in the GOM prevails.

[JonathanBelles]

why is the arctic warming so fast

[cycloneye]

The latest data of Pacific anomalys show a slightly weaker la nina than in the past 2 weeks.If you look at el nino area 1-2 close to SouthAmerica you can see some warming of anomalys.However this may be fluctuations that can occur so let's continue to watch the equatorial Pacific to see if the weak La Nina prevails or neutral conditions will dominate.

[Anthonyl]

Hi folks I have been closely reading the commentaries and thoughts on the recent onset of La Nina and the apparent fluctuations in sea surface temps in the Atlantic and have seen what seems to be a very reveling trend. One may say it's a bit disturbing but caution should be taken as many things could happen between now and the actual heart of the hurricane season. Comparatively to last year there are very high sst's around the immediate vicinity of the islands in the Caribbean from Grenada all the way up the chain to the Northern islands.It also begs to reason that Saint Lucia and the Windwards have been experiencing some unseasonal rainfall over the past two months.
Of note is also the fact that the SST's over the Atlantic closer to the COA are not as warm as they were last year around the same time last year.This could be a tentative set up for long trackers accross the Atlantic in conjunction with a favorable Bermuda High. The cooler the sst's remain closer to the coast the longer the systems may tend to remain in a westward motion before responding via a wnw or nw motion.
To summarize it all, the Caribbean and all areas prone to direct storm hits should bare extra vigilant this year much more than ever given what has been occurring climatically over the world.

[cycloneye]

Hi folks I have been closely reading the commentaries and thoughts on the recent onset of La Nina and the apparent fluctuations in sea surface temps in the Atlantic and have seen what seems to be a very reveling trend. One may say it's a bit disturbing but caution should be taken as many things could happen between now and the actual heart of the hurricane season. Comparatively to last year there are very high sst's around the immediate vicinity of the islands in the Caribbean from Grenada all the way up the chain to the Northern islands.It also begs to reason that Saint Lucia and the Windwards have been experiencing some unseasonal rainfall over the past two months.
Of note is also the fact that the SST's over the Atlantic closer to the COA are not as warm as they were last year around the same time last year.This could be a tentative set up for long trackers accross the Atlantic in conjunction with a favorable Bermuda High. The cooler the sst's remain closer to the coast the longer the systems may tend to remain in a westward motion before responding via a wnw or nw motion.
To summarize it all, the Caribbean and all areas prone to direct storm hits should bare extra vigilant this year much more than ever given what has been occurring climatically over the world.

I agree 100% with your statement about what you said about a more threat to the Caribbean islands this 2006 season.I add that especially the NE Caribbean islands population must be very alert as the tranquil past few years without a hurricane moving thru these islands from Puerto Rico to Guadeloupe may come to an end.But I hope that those systems that form east of us go fishing away from any land.The best thing to do is to prepare for the worse and hope for the best for us who live in the NE Caribbean area.

[MiamiensisWx]

I agree, Anthonyl and Luis. That is why I think the La Nina will weaken by summer and that the threat to southeast Florida continues to grow.

[cycloneye]

The latest data of Pacific anomalys show a slightly weaker la nina than in the past 2 weeks.If you look at el nino area 1-2 close to SouthAmerica you can see some warming of anomalys.However this may be fluctuations that can occur so let's continue to watch the equatorial Pacific to see if the weak La Nina prevails or neutral conditions will dominate.

[MiamiensisWx]

The La Nina looks less vigorous now... look how the area of cool SST Pacific anomalies has warmed!

[artist]

just a thought - how close to where the earthquake in the gulf was is that hot spot?

[vbhoutex]

just a thought - how close to where the earthquake in the gulf was is that hot spot?

Appears to be very close. Are you thinking this may have somethign to do with the warm spot or vice versa?

[wxmann_91]

Good news is CPAC anomalies have died down as well... sign of a fish or EC year? Or will they build back up?

[cycloneye]

Good news is CPAC anomalies have died down as well... sign of a fish or EC year? Or will they build back up?

It's too early to tell.I say wait until May and June to see how the anomalies look in those months and by then we can have a much better idea if we will have La nina or neutral conditions.

[dhweather]

I think La Nina would result in a better chance of fish.
2005 was neutral, look what happened.

But as Luis pointed out, we have to wait three months to have an idea.