Synopsis/Overview...
I expect an active and above average 2006 season, though not as active as 2005 in number of storms. The current pattern and long-term trends, in my opinion, also indicate an active Cape Verde season, with enhanced wave activity off the African coastline. Easterly winds, based on the pattern, will likely enhance this. I also expect the La Nina, since it has been very strong since October, to weaken by summer, resulting in a weak La Nina or neutral conditions; however, the pattern will still result in a very active season.
Here are my prediction numbers so far...
16 named storms
9 hurricanes
6 major hurricanes
16/9/6
I expect five Cape Verde storms, in addition. I also expect the ridge to be split, preventing a Carolina season and allowing very diverse landfalls.
Areas I Think Will Be Most Impacted...
I think the areas that will be most impacted this year will be the Carolinas, southeast Florida, western and central Texas, Mexico (including the Yucatan Peninsula), the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico, and New England and eastern Canada, as well as much of the Caribbean, notably Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the Bahamas, and eastern and western parts of Cuba.
Here is a map showing the areas I think will most likely be impacted (shaded in red)...
In terms of landfalls, I think New England and eastern Canada will receive around one hit or brush. I also think the Carolinas will receive around three storms (one possible major hurricane), southeast Florida one to two storms (including one major hurricane), and western and central Texas around one to two storms (including one major hurricane).
NOTE - As time goes by, I feel the threat to southeast Florida is increasing as the pattern is unfolding.
Storm By Storm Predictions...
These are my 2006 guesses on what each storm may do.
16 named storms
9 hurricanes
6 major hurricanes
ALBERTO - An early-season storm. Forms in the central Atlantic in the manner of Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta. The storm forms in April, gradually strengthening to a peak intensity of 65MPH. Never threatens land.
BERYL - Forms in the Bay of Campeche in June. Strengthens to a peak intensity of 55MPH before making landfall in mainland Mexico. Flooding and some wind damage cause problems.
CHRIS - Forms to the northeast or east-northeast of the Leeward Islands in July. Moves west-northwest or northwest as it passes north of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. It strengthens eventually to a peak intensity of around 85MPH as it passes east of the Bahamas, becoming the first hurricane of the season. The storm never makes U.S. landfall; however, it briefly threatens Bermuda.
DEBBY - The first major hurricane of the season. Like Chris, it forms in July, developing in the eastern Caribbean. Debby gradually strengthens as it moves through the Caribbean, reaching a peak intensity of around 140MPH in the western or central Caribbean Sea, passing near Jamaica and the Cayman Islands before making landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula as still a major hurricane. Debby crosses the Yucatan Peninsula, making landfall once again in mainland Mexico or in extreme southern Texas.
ERNESTO - Forms near the Leeward Islands in late July in an area rather similar to where Chris formed, only slightly further south and perhaps a bit further eastward. Ernesto tracks similar to Chris but moves further westward, reaching a peak intensity of 125MPH as a major hurricane just before reaching the southeastern Bahamas. Ernesto passes through the Bahamas as still a major hurricane, recurves, and makes landfall in the Carolinas as a Category Two or Category Three hurricane. Nasty coastal damage in areas that is comparable to storms such as Fran, Ophelia, Floyd, and - to some degree - other storms such as Hazel. Flooding and some wind damage also takes place inland.
FLORENCE - A nasty one that becomes the first Cape Verde storm of the season; forms in August. Florence takes a path rather similar to Frances of 2004; however, Florence passes much, much closer to Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands, quickly strengthening into it's first peak intensity of 145MPH before reaching those islands. When it reaches those islands, Florence is still at least 145MPH, and the eye passes over or near some of the Leeward Islands, as well as Puerto Rico, causing immense destruction. Florence then scrapes Puerto Rico, continuing west-northwestward towards the Bahamas while passing near Hispaniola, where the outer bands cause immense flooding. Florence reaches the Turks and Caicos Islands, causing severe damage, and continues onward to make landfall in southeast Florida in the vincity of Palm Beach and Broward counties as a major hurricane. After moving inland, Florence curves up through Florida, gradually weakening and eventually dissipating as it moves through the eastern U.S. A highly destructive storm in Florida, the Bahamas, and the Caribbean.
Here is the general track I think Florence is likely to take...
GORDON - Develops in August in the western or central Caribbean near and just south of Jamaica. Gordon moves fairly slowly and somewhat erratically westward or northwestward generally, strengthening to an intensity of 105MPH before making landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula at a similar intensity; however, it weakens down to 95MPH just before landfall due to some shear and land interaction. Gordon crosses the Yucatan while continuing to weaken before emerging as a tropical storm on the other side. Once in the Bay of Campeche, Gordon strengthens back to an 85MPH hurricane before making landfall near that intensity on mainland Mexico. Gordon causes heavy wind damage in some coastal and inland areas; flooding is also a problem.
HELENE - Forms just to the east of the Bahamas in August. Helene takes a track slightly similar to Ophelia; however, it is further out from the coast and is less erratic. Helene strengthens to a peak intensity of around 70MPH as it moves north-northeastward and starts to parallel the coasts of the Carolinas slightly; however, Helene still makes landfall in North Carolina as a high-end tropical storm, eventually moving inland north-northeastward with flooding rains.
ISAAC - The second Cape Verde storm of the season. A classic storm that forms in September. Isaac moves west-northwest across the Atlantic, strengthening to the fourth major hurricane of the season, packing 125MPH winds before passing through the Lesser Antilles. After passing through the Antilles as a major hurricane, Isaac weakens south of Puerto Rico briefly before quickly restrengthening to a 145MPH Category Four hurricane as it continues to move steadily west-northwestward, approaching southwestern Hispaniola and Jamaica. Isaac passes eventually between Haiti and Jamaica with winds of 140MPH. After passing through the path between Haiti and Jamaica and weakening further to 135MPH, Isaac once again restrengthens, this time to 150MPH, and moves in a more west-northwest direction. Isaac strengthens further to 155MPH halfway between Jamaica and the Yucatan Channel. By the time Isaac is slightly closer to the Yucatan Channel, it has strengthened further into a 165MPH Category Five hurricane. Isaac moves northwestward, the eye brushing the northeastern tip of the Yucatan and weakening down to 150MPH. Isaac continues moving northwestward, weakening further and making landfall near Matagorda Bay, Texas, as a 125MPH Category Three hurricane, weakening rapidly after moving inland after landfall has occurred. Surge damage is high, and coastal communities have very heavy to severe destruction. In the Caribbean and Yucatan, Isaac has also been destructive as well.
JOYCE - Another Cape Verde-type storm in September. Joyce forms in the far eastern Atlantic and gradually strengthens, reaching a peak intensity of 140MPH that is maintained while moving north of the Leeward Islands, bypassing them. Joyce along the western edge of the ridge, moving east of the Bahamas and making landfall near the North Carolina/South Carolina border as a Category Two hurricane. Damage is fairly heavy along the coast, and surge is reported. Joyce causes flooding rains and wind damage inland, spawning tornadoes; damage is rather similar to Ernesto.
KIRK - One of the last Cape Verde storms of the season; also forms in September. Kirk generally never affects land. It strengthens to a peak intensity of 120MPH, recurving and passing out to sea, eventually passing near eastern Canada, including Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, before becoming extratropical. Very high swells are generated.
LESLIE - A late September or early October storm, Leslie forms in the southern Caribbean near Honduras, eventually strengthening into a 70MPH tropical storm that nearly gains hurricane status. Leslie moves north-northeastward, passing over eastern Cuba and far western Haiti, weakening and turning out to sea; however, Leslie stubbornly persists while accelerating northeastward before dissipating/becoming extratropical. Deaths in Cuba and Hispaniola are resulted from Leslie's heavy rains.
MICHAEL - Forms in the east-central Atlantic in October and is a very late Cape Verde storm that will be the last one of the season. Michael never threatens land, moving east of the Lesser Antilles and Leeward Islands and reaching a peak intensity of 90MPH as a Category One hurricane before turning east-northeastward and becoming extratropical eventually.
NADINE - Forms in the Leeward Islands in October. Briefly strengthens into a 50MPH tropical storm before making landfall in Puerto Rico. Nadine meanders after weakening to a low-end tropical storm after crossing Puerto Rico. Shear and land interaction with Hispaniola prevents much more intensification from happening, although Nadine manages to restrengthen to 60MPH once it moves to the north of Hispaniola and is east of the Bahamas. Nadine maintains this strength for a time while recurving out to sea east of Bermuda and succumbing to shear and being absorbed/losing circulation/becoming extratropical.
OSCAR - Forms from an extratropical system in the deep central Atlantic in very late October or November. Strengthens to a 65MPH tropical storm that nearly reaches 70MPH and is stubborn and persistent, eventually finally dissipating like Epsilon and Zeta due to shear and dry air after a resilient battle and fight.
PATTY - The final storm of 2006. Forms in the southern Caribbean in a similar area to where Beta formed in November. Patty moves slowly, strengthening slowly to 60MPH before making landfall in Nicaragua and quickly dissipating after moving inland.
Summary...
I expect a destructive season with diverse storm tracks and landfalls, with around five Cape Verde storms. I strongly feel the threat of a major hit to southeast Florida from the east is also increasing.
This is my prediction and my guesses for each storm. Any thoughts?
A storm like that would have the potential to be an horrendous flooding event as well as wind event.
Ah well. You definitley give an in depth analysis. Nice work. Some I agree with and some not so much. I think the numbers are pretty close, and Cape Verde hurricanes will be more frequent this year. I guess we will find out all too soon.