southern plains freezing rain/sleet thread

[plainsman]

i thought id start a thread for west texans, panhandle of texans, north texans, oklahomans, people in southern kansas and southern missouri as well as arkansas and northwest louisiana as well as anyone else who would like to post for this weeks upcoming winter event

[cheezyWXguy]

good idea, plainsman. What are your thots for the plano/frisco area?

[plainsman]

acually very good, for all of DFW.. remember Dec,7 when that snow and ice hit, they were saying the same things the north and west suberbs will get most of the wintry precip and the acual cities of Dallas and Fort worth were hit harder, the air is acually colder with this front! highs in Fargo north dakota wont make it above 0 tomorrow the northern plains werent as cold in early december then now and we got some good wintry precip then so i think theres no question this time around.. it should be a sure thing.. the air is acually colder this time around then in early dec.. and wintry precip could last until wednesday of next week.. TWC has lows in fort wort like 30 and 27 early next week with precip.. i think a for sure winter event cheezy... what about you?

[cheezyWXguy]

i dont know...I hope its better than the dec 7th storm...I got an iceday out of it but i must say it was probably the worst iceday of my life...it all melted over nite on the 7th adn if it werent for east plano getting more than us...we wouldve had a school day!!! I think there will be a winter storm ...i just hope its better than december's

[aggiecutter]

The temps in Texarkana are going to be borderline for a major icing event. The progression of the arctic air the next couple days will be interesting to watch. This is a similiar setup to December of 2000 around here where all of NE Texas, Eastern Oklahoma, and all of Arkansas into the Tennessee valley was devasted by an ice storm. We, Texarkana, were without power for nearly 2 weeks.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.p ... 3&map.y=89

[cheezyWXguy]

It looks like OKC may get the best...their highs are pretty much our lows

[cheezyWXguy]

hey plainsman...what temps are u predicting for our area?(just give a guess )

[plainsman]

ya cheezy again the cities of Dallas and Fort worth got hammered with ice and snow on dec.7th the northern suberbs denton and plano did not get near as much ice and snow then the acual cites of Dallas and Fort worth did.. thats where most of the precip was, the cities of DFW on dec.7th.... ya OKC wichita falls and Amarillo should have some great icing out of this system.. still all the local mets are calling for icing in the cites of Dfw as well and so is TWC and accu, and weatherbug... i think this system will be better then Dec 7th.. because we will have more precipitation chances and the air is colder that is coming.. channel 11 weather also has a chance of snow early monday morning after the sleet and freezing rain.. things should get very interesting around North Texas.. aggiecutter i think texarkana will get a good dosing ice and sleet as well as Dallas /Fort worth in the next week ....

[plainsman]

cheesy i think thursday night upper 30s friday falling to the low 30s rain changing to sleet and freezing rain fri night around 30 with sleet and freezing rain sat mid 30s with freezing rain sleet/rain sat night around 30 with sleet and freezing rain sun mid to upper 30s with with sleet/rain and monday morning, snow with temps in the low 30s warming to the upper 30s.. tues, wed temps in the upper 30s to low 40s during the day and low 30s at night with a chance of wintry precipitation i hope...

[cheezyWXguy]

in the december ice storm...plano had a high at 30 on dec 8th...u say the is colder...are we looking at another 1-2 days below freezing?

[plainsman]

ya it will be colder for a longer period of time and their will be more wintry precipitation chances... if theres enough precipitation around and enough evaporational cooling occurs.. i can see DFW staying around 30 both Saturday and Sunday and maybe even friday if the cold air rushes in quick enough....

[gboudx]

plainsman, what you basing your forecast opinion on? there's no evidence of DFW staying around 30 this weekend. Also, I've heard no weather service, be it NWS or TV mention a comparison to the Dec 7th event. I guess I just don't share the optimism you and cheezy have for this weekend. To me, this is looking like a cold rain with slight chances of freezing rain during the nighttime when it drops below 32.

[cheezyWXguy]

plainsman, what you basing your forecast opinion on? there's no evidence of DFW staying around 30 this weekend. Also, I've heard no weather service, be it NWS or TV mention a comparison to the Dec 7th event. I guess I just don't share the optimism you and cheezy have for this weekend. To me, this is looking like a cold rain with slight chances of freezing rain during the nighttime when it drops below 32.

i dunno, gboudx...this does look like a dec 7th event... in more ways than the icestorm...the actual icestorm came into the forecast only 1-2 days before it happened...it looks like this maybe the case once again

[plainsman]

ya you could be right gboudx , but worst case scenario were still going to have sleet/freezing rain chances fri night sat night and sun night.. kristine kohanek on channel 11 even mentions a chance of snow monday morning in her 5 day..... its still kinda too early to tell ya know.. but look at this, gboudx temps are colder in montana north dakota and minnesota then on dec, 7... fargo nd is going to have its first sub freezing day of the year tomorrow .... add that to the fact that the core of the brutal cold is in montana which basically means a true blue norther for North Texas and none of this air really is going to go east .. wouldnt u think its going to be colder in North Texas now? thats what id think theres no stopping this air really and temps are considerably colder in the northern plains then on dec. 7th ya know....

[plainsman]

i meant sub zero for highs in fargo north dakota tomorrow....

[cheezyWXguy]

ya i was gonna say plainsman, that must.ve been a much warmer start to the year than i thot...

[cheezyWXguy]

WOW! do u really think that it will be that cold? 30 for sat and sun? i dunno...I can expect right around the frezing mark but 2 days <30 as highs...that sounds a little extreme

[gboudx]

Last year there was an arctic outbreak where the high plains down into Kansas got bitterly cold. Thing is, it never really made it to NTX. The flow is zonal with a SW component at the upper-levels that will bring us the overrunning precip. To me, this says the big chill moves more east than south. Not that it won't be cold here, but not as cold as if it could dive straight south. But let's wait until tomorrow night to see.

[cheezyWXguy]

but what if it didnt go east...then what would ur predictions be , gboudx

[cheezyWXguy]

just wondering...but is this artic air really that shallow? i mean are the models having trouble with it because the ecmwf shows it just disappearing over OKC