(New!!) Cold for the Deep South (Models, Maps, Discussion)

#321 Postby **gboudx** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 5:42 pm

Yeah, I read his post, but I don't necessarily agree with it. I haven't picked up on any consistent N & W forecasts by the DFW NWS with regard to wintry events. IMO, they do a good job and this weekend certainly presents a great challenge for them. I disagree that they are being conservative. I think they are informing the public in a responsible mannger. Right now, they don't see that great a threat to our area and that's what they are saying. Remember, their forecasts and analysis are used by the local TV mets to formulate their own forecasts.

It's still 3 days out, but imo, it should become much clearer tomorrow-tomorrow night.

cheezyWXguy · #322 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 6:02 pm

very true, gboudx...we can talk about it more on the new thread plainsman started so that the rest of these guys can get back to SETX weather

#323 Postby **gboudx** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 6:10 pm

I don't think a new thread was necessary. I kind of like having all the Texas discussions grouped together.

southerngale · #324 Postby **southerngale** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 7:04 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Just to let everybody know. Accuweather.com now has a forecast of 49F for a high in northern Houston on Saturday. I usually do not like the accuweather forecasts past day 5...but since Saturday is only 4 days out, this forecast is more believable. My personal prediction would be that we struggle to reach 50F on Saturday and Sunday of this weekend with a breeze, clouds, and rain. Lows will also only be 5-10F cooler than the highs.

Accuweather has a high here on Saturday of 49° as well - meanwhile NWS shows 61°. I'm pretty sure NWS showed mid-50's last night when I checked. hmmm

cheezyWXguy · #325 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 7:18 pm

I think the NWS is taking it pretty cautious and probably taking the GFS solutions...theyre the only weather station(that doesnt mimmick other stations's forecasts) that dont either have me in for wintry precip, or upper 30's for highs at least one day this weekend

wxman22 · #326 Postby **wxman22** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 9:09 pm

Heres my latest Wx maps:

cheezyWXguy · #327 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 9:12 pm

wow! looks cold for me...maybe mid 30's on saturday...will sunday be any colder

cheezyWXguy · #328 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 9:13 pm

wait a minute!!!! i thot those were highs!!!! nvm about the cold!!!

Extremeweatherguy · #329 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 9:50 pm

southerngale wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Just to let everybody know. Accuweather.com now has a forecast of 49F for a high in northern Houston on Saturday. I usually do not like the accuweather forecasts past day 5...but since Saturday is only 4 days out, this forecast is more believable. My personal prediction would be that we struggle to reach 50F on Saturday and Sunday of this weekend with a breeze, clouds, and rain. Lows will also only be 5-10F cooler than the highs.

Accuweather has a high here on Saturday of 49° as well - meanwhile NWS shows 61°. I'm pretty sure NWS showed mid-50's last night when I checked. hmmm

NWS in Houston still has middle 50s for us. I wonder why they increased your forecast highs to 61F over in Beaumont? strange.

wxman22 · #330 Postby **wxman22** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 11:25 pm

Heres my latest map:

southerngale · #331 Postby **southerngale** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 11:30 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
southerngale wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Just to let everybody know. Accuweather.com now has a forecast of 49F for a high in northern Houston on Saturday. I usually do not like the accuweather forecasts past day 5...but since Saturday is only 4 days out, this forecast is more believable. My personal prediction would be that we struggle to reach 50F on Saturday and Sunday of this weekend with a breeze, clouds, and rain. Lows will also only be 5-10F cooler than the highs.

Accuweather has a high here on Saturday of 49° as well - meanwhile NWS shows 61°. I'm pretty sure NWS showed mid-50's last night when I checked. hmmm
NWS in Houston still has middle 50s for us. I wonder why they increased your forecast highs to 61F over in Beaumont? strange.

Make that 63°

and a 59° high for Sunday

And from the locals here, one says 48° for Sat. high and 50° for Sun. high, the other says 60° for Sat. high and 52° for Sun. high. I checked the site for the local NBC station here since the Olympics are on. It says 64° high for Sat. and 58° high for Sun. on there.

They're all over the place and it's less than 2+ days away.

#332 Postby **deltadog03** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 11:47 pm

well, 00z nam and GFS trending colder
00z gfs is about 100miles further south with the 0c 2m temp.

#333 Postby **deltadog03** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 12:59 am

how about a 1062mb high coming into the US???
according to the 00z Hi res CMC...

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 12_036.jpg

#334 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 6:56 am

deltadog03 wrote:how about a 1062mb high coming into the US???
according to the 00z Hi res CMC...

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 12_036.jpg

Interesting development and perhaps one reason why this morning (Thur) it appears temps are trending colder for this weekend.

Extremeweatherguy · #335 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 7:46 am

Latest NWS weekend forecast for North Houston:

Friday: A 30 percent chance of rain. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high around 60. North wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low near 46. North wind around 10 mph.

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. North wind around 10 mph.

Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42.

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 53.

Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44.

The NWS is down to a high of 50F on Saturday...yesterday the forecast was 56F. Definite trend cooler.

#336 Postby **jeff** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 8:00 am

Arctic cold front making headway this morning across the plains.

Shallow but cold air mass should arrive locally early Friday.

Very humid and cloudy conditions will prevail today with highs near 80 at most climate sites. The warmth ends Friday as arctic frontal boundary arrives during the day. Shallow cold dome (1500-2500 ft thick) will be heavily overrun by S and SW winds above the surface producing widespread clouds and periods of rain through the weekend. Best chances appear to be Friday afternoon through Saturday night as a southern stream short wave produces enhanced lift over the area. It will not rain the entire weekend and amounts should generally be on the light side.

Cloudy and wet conditions along with continued cold air advection will make for a raw weekend with temperatures likely remaining steady in the upper 40’s and lower 50’s the entire time. Gusty north winds will make it feel about 5-10 degrees colder. Freezing line and ice potential should remain around the Dallas area or generally along and north of I-20.

ETA is the model of choice which is colder than the GFS. The ETA has better vertical resolution and can grasp the shallow cold air mass better. It is interesting to note that the ETA keeps temps. in the 40’s on Saturday and is also much drier than the GFS.

Overrunning pattern continues into next week although the models have backed off on another cold front for Monday and temps. may warm back to seasonal levels. However, this front may end up colder than currently forecast given the ice and snow cover that will develop this weekend over the central and southern plains.

#337 Postby **jeff** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 8:00 am

Potential for freezing rain this weekend across portions of N TX.

Cold arctic air mass will slide through N TX today laying the foundation for an eventful weekend of weather. Gulf of Pacific moisture will glide up and over the cold dome at the surface in a favorable isentropic lift pattern producing widespread light rain behind the front in the cold air mass. Arctic air mass is very shallow (1000-2000 ft) and this will negate any snow threat. However, surface temps. may fall to freezing Friday night through midday Saturday and again Saturday night resulting in freezing rain and icing.

NWS is not yet confident enough that 1/4th of an inch of ice will accumulate and hence a Winter Storm Watch has not been issued. Should additional guidance come in colder and wetter a Watch may be needed. Main concern area at this time is locations north of I-20 where temps. will be colder. Highs will likely remain in the 30’s both Saturday and Sunday under strong cold air advection and light precipitation.

This issue will be looked at closer Friday.

aggiecutter · #338 Postby **aggiecutter** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 8:52 am

This arctic air is heading west and south, not east. The temp map speaks for itself. The northern third of Texas is in for a rough weekend...

http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag226.html

#339 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 9:23 am

aggiecutter wrote:This arctic air is heading west and south, not east. The temp map speaks for itself. The northern third of Texas is in for a rough weekend...

http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag226.html

Have to slightly disagree here. The arctic air is still going east. What you have here is now cont. polar air moving south and west under the upper steering.

Take a look at the 700mb winds and you will see what is happening is the air is moving into the trough. Once the air starts to hit the wsw flow near the panhandle of Texas...it will start to be shunted east.

So...it's still going with the upper flow...it just hasn't started to bump against the upper flow yet.

#340 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 9:26 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Latest NWS weekend forecast for North Houston:

Friday: A 30 percent chance of rain. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high around 60. North wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low near 46. North wind around 10 mph.

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. North wind around 10 mph.

Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42.

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 53.

Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44.

The NWS is down to a high of 50F on Saturday...yesterday the forecast was 56F. Definite trend cooler.

Now that's more in line with what I was thinking. Middle 50's for metro Houston...lower if it rains some. At least their forecasts are now matching their AFDs!

(New!!) Cold for the Deep South (Models, Maps, Discussion)

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