Official GA/AL/TN/NC/SC Cold Winter Rain Thread.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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GeneratorPower
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plainsman
ya
ya the same guy who claimed 2 inches of ice in florida when temps were in the mid to upper 30s is the same guy who was claiming there were snow flurries there.. everybody that doesnt live in florida knows there was no ice and there were no snow flurries.. on the morning they claimed to have flurries the official low at the airport was like 44 degrees.. how could there be a 8 degree difference if other people claimed there low was 35-38.. ya right! theres no elevation in tampa.. how could the temp differential be that much? and even if it was 38, which it wasnt, 37,38 is still too warm to support snow, especially in florida, now in the mountains of colorado, it can snow at 37,38, but not in florida... and im sure someone would have took pictures, and according to extremweatherguy the local news in tampa did not report anything on the ''flurries''.... everything is just too hard to believe.... the upcoming front is more of a blue norther for people in the southeast... i think this will effect north texas and oklahoma with winter weather more then the southeast although northern ga, al, and ms and tenn, nc , might have a shot at wintry precip, but the brunt of the cold temps will stay in north texas and oklahoma .. "" this is a classic blue norther for the most part""
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whereverwx
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Re: ya
plainsman wrote:ya the same guy who claimed 2 inches of ice in florida when temps were in the mid to upper 30s is the same guy who was claiming there were snow flurries there.. everybody that doesnt live in florida knows there was no ice and there were no snow flurries.. on the morning they claimed to have flurries the official low at the airport was like 44 degrees.. how could there be a 8 degree difference if other people claimed there low was 35-38.. ya right! theres no elevation in tampa.. how could the temp differential be that much? and even if it was 38, which it wasnt, 37,38 is still too warm to support snow, especially in florida, now in the mountains of colorado, it can snow at 37,38, but not in florida... and im sure someone would have took pictures, and according to extremweatherguy the local news in tampa did not report anything on the ''flurries''.... everything is just too hard to believe.... the upcoming front is more of a blue norther for people in the southeast... i think this will effect north texas and oklahoma with winter weather more then the southeast although northern ga, al, and ms and tenn, nc , might have a shot at wintry precip, but the brunt of the cold temps will stay in north texas and oklahoma .. "" this is a classic blue norther for the most part""
... and why is that? Can you explain a little more.
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JonathanBelles
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Re: ya
Calamity wrote:plainsman wrote:ya the same guy who claimed 2 inches of ice in florida when temps were in the mid to upper 30s is the same guy who was claiming there were snow flurries there.. everybody that doesnt live in florida knows there was no ice and there were no snow flurries.. on the morning they claimed to have flurries the official low at the airport was like 44 degrees.. how could there be a 8 degree difference if other people claimed there low was 35-38.. ya right! theres no elevation in tampa.. how could the temp differential be that much? and even if it was 38, which it wasnt, 37,38 is still too warm to support snow, especially in florida, now in the mountains of colorado, it can snow at 37,38, but not in florida... and im sure someone would have took pictures, and according to extremweatherguy the local news in tampa did not report anything on the ''flurries''.... everything is just too hard to believe.... the upcoming front is more of a blue norther for people in the southeast... i think this will effect north texas and oklahoma with winter weather more then the southeast although northern ga, al, and ms and tenn, nc , might have a shot at wintry precip, but the brunt of the cold temps will stay in north texas and oklahoma .. "" this is a classic blue norther for the most part""
... and why is that? Can you explain a little more.
good question in NY(where i lived for 13 years) it snowed in the low 40's
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JenyEliza wrote:Can we get this conversation back on track? Imaginary ice in St. Pete isn't even part of the region and topic this thread covers.
So...latest from FFC:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
640 PM EST TUE FEB 14 2006
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY 12Z FRIDAY...PUSHING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FOR A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. MODELS KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GOOD MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BUT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL OR SURFACE SUPPORT THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY DROP LOW ENOUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS FOR A THREAT OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. BEST RAIN CHANCES COME MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
&&
Bump to re-direct this thread back to the subject at hand.
Please don't feed trolls.
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I can't really get a feel for what might happen in the SE (ie, NAL, NGA, NC, SC, TN) this weekend/early next week. Anyone have some insight they'd be willing to share
This is what FFC said this morning at 5:30 am:
This is what they said at 11:45 am.
This is what FFC said this morning at 5:30 am:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 AM EST WED FEB 15 2006
..LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO SAG SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...
LIKELY NOT UNTIL SUNDAY. THIS COUPLED WITH AN ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND AN ABUNDANT STREAM OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH GEORGIA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LATEST MEX MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHTS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA HOLDING JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK...THUS GREATLY LESSONING THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT FOR NOW. THIS
LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR A STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. HOWEVER...WE
CONTINUE TO ADVISE ALL INTEREST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL THREAT AS THE WEEKEND DRAWS NEAR.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...SPINS UP A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF REGION...AND TRACKS THE
LOW ACROSS THE STATE BY EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
This is what they said at 11:45 am.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1145 AM EST WED FEB 15 2006
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE TEMPS A TAD. CLOUDS BECOMING SCT OVER ALL
BUT FAR NE ZONES THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. WITH GOOD WARMING NOW
OCCURING IN LOW LEVELS (1000-850MB) TEMPS SHOULD REACH MID 60S AT
MANY LOCATIONS INCLUDING ATL METRO. REST OF FCST LOOKS GOOD.
BRIEF REVIEW OF 12Z MODELS CONTINUES TO SHOW PROLONGED PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING. 12Z GFS NOW BACK TO
STRONG SFC HIGH SOLUTION WITH 1040MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR IOWA AT 00Z
SUN. MORE LATER.
SNELSON
&&
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
504 AM CST WED FEB 15 2006
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS
UP OVER ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE 60S OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND EVEN A FEW SPOTS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES COULD
REACH 70 DEGREES. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SOME TONIGHT AND
BECOME GUSTY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA.
RAIN COULD BEING TO MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES AS AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS. THIS COULD
SPILL OVER INTO THURSDAY SO I INCREASED POPS A TAD DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE PERIOD.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING ALABAMA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUN HAD THE FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE NOW ARE STALLING THE
FRONT OVER NORTH ALABAMA. THIS SOLUTION WILL KEEP US IN THE WARM
SECTOR WHICH MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FRONT PLACEMENT WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE INTHE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK. GFS AND ETA MOS
DIFFER A GREAT DEAL IN TEMPERATURES. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ETA...HENCE THE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES.
TOOK A BLEND OF THE MOS DURING THE PERIOD. THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A FEW UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVES MOVE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT. THIS WILL ENHANCE LIFT AND
THEREFORE INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN.
10/ARM
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH JUST A FEW CHANGES
OF CONSEQUENCE EARLY ON. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
DETAILS.
GFS AND CANADIAN LARGELY IN SYNC THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESEMBLING
STRONGLY THE 14/12Z EUROPEAN RUN. ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z
EUROPEAN AND NOGAPS CROP UP...THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN TIMING.
SO...THE MAIN THEME WILL CONTINUE...WITH A NEARLY PERSISTENT
OVERRUNNING SITUATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES...WITH RAIN CHANCES
VIRTUALLY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
<b>THE MAIN BONE OF CONTENTION IS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...REGARDING THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL CREEP INTO THE PICTURE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. WITH THE 00Z GFS...ALL THE FORECAST
PROFILES KEEP US A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...
THE 06Z UPDATE IS LOOKING COOLER AGAIN...WHICH WOULD RAISE QUESTIONS
FOR OUR MOST NORTHERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE WARM
SIDE...AND KEEP ANY WINTRY PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST.</b> THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY...AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR PRESENT WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN PROBLEMATIC FOR A FEW MORE RUNS AT LEAST. EVEN
THEN...THE LINE OF LIQUID/FREEZING PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ALL THE MODELS AGREE IN THE BASICS
OF A SOMEWHAT STAGNANT/STABLE PATTERN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...
AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY FLOUNDERING AROUND THE SOUTHERN STATES. A
SIMPLE MOVE OF A 100 MILES NORTH OR SOUTH IN THE LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES. AS SUCH...STAYED
CLOSE TO MEX NUMBERS IN MOST INSTANCES.
I think that it's Wednesday, and they were more certain last weekend of snow than now. I would bet that any weather we get here in Alabama will be rain...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
504 AM CST WED FEB 15 2006
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS
UP OVER ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE 60S OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND EVEN A FEW SPOTS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES COULD
REACH 70 DEGREES. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SOME TONIGHT AND
BECOME GUSTY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA.
RAIN COULD BEING TO MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES AS AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS. THIS COULD
SPILL OVER INTO THURSDAY SO I INCREASED POPS A TAD DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE PERIOD.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING ALABAMA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUN HAD THE FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE NOW ARE STALLING THE
FRONT OVER NORTH ALABAMA. THIS SOLUTION WILL KEEP US IN THE WARM
SECTOR WHICH MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FRONT PLACEMENT WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE INTHE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK. GFS AND ETA MOS
DIFFER A GREAT DEAL IN TEMPERATURES. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ETA...HENCE THE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES.
TOOK A BLEND OF THE MOS DURING THE PERIOD. THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A FEW UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVES MOVE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT. THIS WILL ENHANCE LIFT AND
THEREFORE INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN.
10/ARM
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH JUST A FEW CHANGES
OF CONSEQUENCE EARLY ON. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
DETAILS.
GFS AND CANADIAN LARGELY IN SYNC THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESEMBLING
STRONGLY THE 14/12Z EUROPEAN RUN. ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z
EUROPEAN AND NOGAPS CROP UP...THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN TIMING.
SO...THE MAIN THEME WILL CONTINUE...WITH A NEARLY PERSISTENT
OVERRUNNING SITUATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES...WITH RAIN CHANCES
VIRTUALLY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
<b>THE MAIN BONE OF CONTENTION IS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...REGARDING THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL CREEP INTO THE PICTURE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. WITH THE 00Z GFS...ALL THE FORECAST
PROFILES KEEP US A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...
THE 06Z UPDATE IS LOOKING COOLER AGAIN...WHICH WOULD RAISE QUESTIONS
FOR OUR MOST NORTHERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE WARM
SIDE...AND KEEP ANY WINTRY PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST.</b> THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY...AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR PRESENT WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN PROBLEMATIC FOR A FEW MORE RUNS AT LEAST. EVEN
THEN...THE LINE OF LIQUID/FREEZING PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ALL THE MODELS AGREE IN THE BASICS
OF A SOMEWHAT STAGNANT/STABLE PATTERN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...
AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY FLOUNDERING AROUND THE SOUTHERN STATES. A
SIMPLE MOVE OF A 100 MILES NORTH OR SOUTH IN THE LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES. AS SUCH...STAYED
CLOSE TO MEX NUMBERS IN MOST INSTANCES.
I think that it's Wednesday, and they were more certain last weekend of snow than now. I would bet that any weather we get here in Alabama will be rain...
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The gist of what I get from BMX's AFD is this.
In other words, it looks (at this point) like rain, but that BMX and FFC are not entirely confident in that forecast.
To be honest...would much rather have cold rain than an ice storm.
However, if it looks like we'll be having ice--I want as much time as possible in advance to prepare for it. I hate standing in line at the store with every panicked Atlantan trying to buy their bread and milk.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
504 AM CST WED FEB 15 2006
THE MAIN BONE OF CONTENTION IS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...REGARDING THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL CREEP INTO THE PICTURE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. WITH THE 00Z GFS...ALL THE FORECAST
PROFILES KEEP US A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...
THE 06Z UPDATE IS LOOKING COOLER AGAIN...WHICH WOULD RAISE QUESTIONS
FOR OUR MOST NORTHERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE WARM
SIDE...AND KEEP ANY WINTRY PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY...AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR PRESENT WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN PROBLEMATIC FOR A FEW MORE RUNS AT LEAST. EVEN
THEN...THE LINE OF LIQUID/FREEZING PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO THE AREA.
&&
In other words, it looks (at this point) like rain, but that BMX and FFC are not entirely confident in that forecast.
To be honest...would much rather have cold rain than an ice storm.
However, if it looks like we'll be having ice--I want as much time as possible in advance to prepare for it. I hate standing in line at the store with every panicked Atlantan trying to buy their bread and milk.
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Brent wrote:Since it's not going to snow, I hope it keeps trending warmer. I absolutely HATE ice.
I know I don't want ice. Snow or rain are fine...but not ice.
BTW...here's the latest from FFC. They seem to be watching really closely. They don't normally issue AFD's in the late morning and then again in the afternoon, unless they're keying in on a potential event. They normally post AFDs about every 12 hours.
They've already posted at 5:30 am, 11:45 am and now at 3:20 pm. The folks at FFC appear to have some concern about the approaching system, but are going conservative until things become clearer to them.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
320 PM EST WED FEB 15 2006
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ENJOY THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THINGS GO DOWNHILL FROM THERE. CLOUDS SCT-BKN SHOULD BECOME MORE BKN OVERNIGHT AS SW FLOW ALOFT AND WAA CONTINUES. STILL NOT STRONG ENOUGH LIFT OR SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR PRECIP BUT BY THURS NIGHT SHOULD SEE SCT SHRA MOVING INTO NW ZONES. TEMPS WILL BECOME UNSEASONABLY WARM AHEAD OF FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO TN VALLEY BY THURS NIGHT. BIG PROBLEM AFTER THIS POINT IS HOW FAR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO GA AFTER THAT.
12Z MODELS STARTING TO BACK OFF ON HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT GETS...KEEPING IT STATIONARY OVER NORTH OR CENTRAL GA FRIDAY INTO SAT. WITH A BIG ARCTIC HIGH LIKE THIS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER RUNS TAKE IT FURTHER SOUTH. FOR NOW...HAVE SIDED WITH NAM/GFS BLEND WHICH SEEM TO BE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE LIQUID THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...IF FRONT PLUNGES MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH COLDER AIR THAN PROGGED BEHIND IT...COULD EASILY HAVE A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN SITUATION ACROSS NORTH GA.
..LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
LARGE-SCALE W TO SW FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FRONT FINALLY PROGGED TO PUSH TROUGH CWA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME POST-FRONTAL PRECIP POSSIBLE. PRECIP TYPE MAY BE TRICKY WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTH. 12Z GFS PROGS ANOTHER WAVE IN SWLY FLOW FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON AND AGAIN ON TUES. BY WED SFC HIGH FINALLY BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH COOLER TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES. WOULD NOT BANK ON THIS YET AS STRONG NW FLOW NOT LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF FRONT. OVERALL PATTERN FOR ZONAL FLOW LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
SNELSON
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cheezyWXguy
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Lowpressure
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Brent
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Well the models are trending colder... looks like the I-20 corridor could have some light icing problems.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
312 PM EST THU FEB 16 2006
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>073-075-170930-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-
MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-GLASCOCK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...
ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...
DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY...
GRIFFIN...MILLEDGEVILLE
312 PM EST THU FEB 16 2006
...WARM WEATHER COMING TO AN ABRUPT END FOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY...
...ICY WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA THIS
WEEKEND...
AN AREA OF VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. TODAY BRINGING BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF
THE COUNTRY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME TO
AN END FRIDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA DURING THE DAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA INCLUDING THE
ATLANTA METRO AREA.
WHILE COLDER AIR PUSHES FURTHER INTO GEORGIA...SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR RESULTING IN
SCATTERED AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN
...BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH NEAR THE GROUND FOR
SOME OF THE RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA...MAINLY NORTH OF A CEDARTOWN TO
ROSWELL TO GAINESVILLE LINE.
IT IS NOT CERTAIN AT THIS TIME EXACTLY WHERE OR HOW MUCH ICE WILL
ACCUMULATE. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES WEAKER OR WARMER THAN EXPECTED
...ICING WILL NOT BE LIKELY. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES STRONGER AND
COLDER THAN EXPECTED...SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA.
RESIDENTS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THIS
POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER SITUATION. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
312 PM EST THU FEB 16 2006
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>073-075-170930-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-
MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-GLASCOCK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...
ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...
DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY...
GRIFFIN...MILLEDGEVILLE
312 PM EST THU FEB 16 2006
...WARM WEATHER COMING TO AN ABRUPT END FOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY...
...ICY WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA THIS
WEEKEND...
AN AREA OF VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. TODAY BRINGING BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF
THE COUNTRY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME TO
AN END FRIDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA DURING THE DAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA INCLUDING THE
ATLANTA METRO AREA.
WHILE COLDER AIR PUSHES FURTHER INTO GEORGIA...SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR RESULTING IN
SCATTERED AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN
...BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH NEAR THE GROUND FOR
SOME OF THE RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA...MAINLY NORTH OF A CEDARTOWN TO
ROSWELL TO GAINESVILLE LINE.
IT IS NOT CERTAIN AT THIS TIME EXACTLY WHERE OR HOW MUCH ICE WILL
ACCUMULATE. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES WEAKER OR WARMER THAN EXPECTED
...ICING WILL NOT BE LIKELY. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES STRONGER AND
COLDER THAN EXPECTED...SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA.
RESIDENTS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THIS
POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER SITUATION. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
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#neversummer
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38090
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
From BMX:
THE FORECAST TURNS VERY INTERESTING STARTING SATURDAY. THE COLD
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY SATURDAY MORNING
MAYBE AROUND 9 OR 10 AM AND THERE WILL BE MOISTURE. WENT WITH
DEFINITE RAIN AND A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. THE COLD AIR SLOWLY
MOVES SOUTH. WHAT MAKES THIS SUCH A DIFFICULT FORECAST IS THE FACT
THAT DESPITE THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THE UPPER SUPPORT LAGS BEHIND. UNTIL CAN FIGURE OUT HOW FAR SOUTH
THE UPPER SUPPORT WILL GET IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT
THE RAIN VS FREEZING RAIN LINE. BY 18Z SATURDAY THE COLD AIR
SHOULD MOVE INTO BLOUNT...ETOWAH...AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES SO ADDED
THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN THERE AFTER 18Z. FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN FROM
PICKENS EASTWARD TO RANDOLPH COUNTIES. AT ONE TIME THOUGHT THERE
WOULD NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE BUT EACH MODEL RUN IS COMING IN A BIT
WETTER. IT WAS A QUESTIONABLE CALL ON CLAY AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES
BUT WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THAT AREA THOUGHT IT WAS WARRANTED.
I'm just inside that area...
THE FORECAST TURNS VERY INTERESTING STARTING SATURDAY. THE COLD
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY SATURDAY MORNING
MAYBE AROUND 9 OR 10 AM AND THERE WILL BE MOISTURE. WENT WITH
DEFINITE RAIN AND A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. THE COLD AIR SLOWLY
MOVES SOUTH. WHAT MAKES THIS SUCH A DIFFICULT FORECAST IS THE FACT
THAT DESPITE THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THE UPPER SUPPORT LAGS BEHIND. UNTIL CAN FIGURE OUT HOW FAR SOUTH
THE UPPER SUPPORT WILL GET IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT
THE RAIN VS FREEZING RAIN LINE. BY 18Z SATURDAY THE COLD AIR
SHOULD MOVE INTO BLOUNT...ETOWAH...AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES SO ADDED
THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN THERE AFTER 18Z. FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN FROM
PICKENS EASTWARD TO RANDOLPH COUNTIES. AT ONE TIME THOUGHT THERE
WOULD NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE BUT EACH MODEL RUN IS COMING IN A BIT
WETTER. IT WAS A QUESTIONABLE CALL ON CLAY AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES
BUT WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THAT AREA THOUGHT IT WAS WARRANTED.
I'm just inside that area...
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#neversummer
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38090
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
329 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006
ALZ011>015-017>038-171000-
BIBB-BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-
ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-PERRY-PICKENS-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON-
329 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006
...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND IN NORTH ALABAMA...
CONFIDENCE IS STARTING TO INCREASE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE CITIES OF ALICEVILLE...TUSCALOOSA...
COLUMBIANA...SYLACAUGA...AND WEDOWEE. THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA IS IN
THE NORTHWEST...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF HAMILTON...HALEYVILLE...
DOUBLE SPRINGS...VERNON...FAYETTE...AND JASPER.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANGE TO SHARPLY COLDER WEATHER TO
THE NORTH HALF OF ALABAMA ON FRIDAY...AND THAT COLD AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TO PRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE
WEEKEND. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IS FORECAST TO CAUSE
SEVERAL AREAS OF RAIN TO DEVELOP AND PASS ACROSS ALABAMA OVER THE
WEEKEND AS WELL. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE RAIN MAY FREEZE
AS IT FALLS INTO THE COLD AIR AT THE GROUND.
LATEST COMPUTER MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
HAS INCREASED A BIT. HOWEVER...THERE STILL REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS THREAT...ESPECIALLY TRYING TO PIN DOWN DETAILS
SUCH AS THE TEMPERATURES...AND THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL.
IF RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE...THEN A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PARTS OF NORTH ALABAMA.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
329 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006
ALZ011>015-017>038-171000-
BIBB-BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-
ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-PERRY-PICKENS-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON-
329 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006
...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND IN NORTH ALABAMA...
CONFIDENCE IS STARTING TO INCREASE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE CITIES OF ALICEVILLE...TUSCALOOSA...
COLUMBIANA...SYLACAUGA...AND WEDOWEE. THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA IS IN
THE NORTHWEST...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF HAMILTON...HALEYVILLE...
DOUBLE SPRINGS...VERNON...FAYETTE...AND JASPER.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANGE TO SHARPLY COLDER WEATHER TO
THE NORTH HALF OF ALABAMA ON FRIDAY...AND THAT COLD AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TO PRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE
WEEKEND. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IS FORECAST TO CAUSE
SEVERAL AREAS OF RAIN TO DEVELOP AND PASS ACROSS ALABAMA OVER THE
WEEKEND AS WELL. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE RAIN MAY FREEZE
AS IT FALLS INTO THE COLD AIR AT THE GROUND.
LATEST COMPUTER MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
HAS INCREASED A BIT. HOWEVER...THERE STILL REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS THREAT...ESPECIALLY TRYING TO PIN DOWN DETAILS
SUCH AS THE TEMPERATURES...AND THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL.
IF RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE...THEN A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PARTS OF NORTH ALABAMA.
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#neversummer
-
GeneratorPower
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1648
- Age: 45
- Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:48 pm
- Location: Huntsville, AL
If it is going to be ice everyone needs to be prepared. Here in North Alabama, the last ice storm knocked out power for 7-10 days in some locations. Nearly everyone saw at least 48 hours without power. And in the cold weather, people were chilly without electricity. Don't wait for the public to panic. Get out tonight and get the necessities or you'll be waiting in line for batteries and sterno. 
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