(New!!) Cold for the Deep South (Models, Maps, Discussion)

[Furious George]

NWS now predicting 44 for a high on Saturday for areas in North Houston - near IAH.

Looks like we have an outside chance of reaching or breaking two records at IAH. Todays record high is 81 (currently 77). Saturday's low max record is 43 - that one's going to be a little more difficult, but not completely out of the question.

[southerngale]

NWS Lake Charles hasn't trended any colder for Beaumont.

Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of dense fog after midnight. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low near 54. East wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of dense fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 63. Northeast wind around 10 mph.

Saturday Night: A 40 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. Northeast wind between 10 and 15 mph.

[Furious George]

Houston NWS has trended a lot colder - I'm quite surprised.

Forecast for Bryan College Station:

Saturday Night: A 40 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 32.

[aggiecutter]

AFM, the Ensembles did a good job of pegging this event as far as 7-10 days ago. It had pressing cold air against the se ridge. The model was consistent with this for 5 or 6 days.

[KatDaddy]

Dallas AFD update:

THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE COLDER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUNS...SO WE ARE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MAYBE STARTING AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

[CajunMama]

NWS Lake Charles hasn't trended any colder for Beaumont.

Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of dense fog after midnight. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low near 54. East wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of dense fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 63. Northeast wind around 10 mph.

Saturday Night: A 40 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. Northeast wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Being we use the same nws for our forecasts let's hope they're wrong on the saturday nite forecast of rain. For once i want 0%. The mardi gras parades here in lafayette begin rolling!

[Johnny]

Hey AFM...I drew out my temperatures the other day for this weekend calling for low to mid 40's (for highs) for my area. You figured those were WAY too cold. As of now the NWS is calling for a high of 43 Saturday for Conroe and a high of 45 on Sunday. Are you seeing this colder trend? That's a big change from yesterday.

[deltadog03]

i think DFW dosn't see above freezing on sat or sunday...

[Air Force Met]

Hey AFM...I drew out my temperatures the other day for this weekend calling for low to mid 40's (for highs) for my area. You figured those were WAY too cold. As of now the NWS is calling for a high of 43 Saturday for Conroe and a high of 45 on Sunday. Are you seeing this colder trend? That's a big change from yesterday.

First..when I say Houston...I mean houston proper (metro)....not conroe, Woodlands...but Houston City Limits

So I thought you were speaking of Houston (because your location says Houston), not anywhere else. Take all the numbers I gave you for Houston and lower them by 5 degrees for Conroe (which is about right for the normal difference) and you will see that it's about what I forecasted. I also said the NWS was too warm by 5 degrees (if there was no overrunning...10 if there was).

I still think highs for HOUSTON will be in the low 50's (near 50) Saturday and Sunday. It could be a little colder if it rains more...but it appears it is going to be pretty dry in the mid levels. I think lows will be in the low 40's.

Lower all of that by about 5 degrees for Conroe. So...I misunderstood what you were talking about. I forget that everyone within 100 miles of Houston say they live in Houston. So...if I had known you were talking about Conroe...I would have been more apt to agree with you...although maybe a few degrees warmer.

[Johnny]

I think north and central portions of Southeast, Texas will drop into the mid 30's and not stray too far from that on Saturday...possibly lower to mid 40's and maybe a little higher this Sunday.

Can I call out a pro met? Is that aloud of here?

[Air Force Met]

i think DFW dosn't see above freezing on sat or sunday...

I think they metro area will get above freezing Sat and Sun...but I think the 39 and 40 they are calling for is too high. Mid 30's...34-36 for highs seems more likley. The northern parts...like near your area...will be very close to the freezing mark...you may get to 33.

[Air Force Met]

I think north and central portions of Southeast, Texas will drop into the mid 30's and not stray too far from that on Saturday...possibly lower to mid 40's and maybe a little higher this Sunday.

Can I call out a pro met? Is that aloud of here?

Yeah...it's allowed. My mistake is not getting an exact location. Anyone from this area know the temp variations in SETX can be 15 degrees from CLL to HOU during a winter event.

It's the GULF man!

[gboudx]

i think DFW dosn't see above freezing on sat or sunday...

FYI, Ch 8 met, McCauley, put the high on Saturday at 33. I'm assuming we'll some sort of advisory posted this afternoon, because it sounds like there will be travel issues this weekend.

[deltadog03]

well, the GFS mos and nam mos are right at freezing for DFW for sat and just about there for sunday.

[southerngale]

Lower all of that by about 5 degrees for Conroe. So...I misunderstood what you were talking about. I forget that everyone within 100 miles of Houston say they live in Houston. So...if I had known you were talking about Conroe...I would have been more apt to agree with you...although maybe a few degrees warmer.

Maybe a little less. Beaumont is within 100 miles but I don't say Houston. lol

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

NWS Brownsville has lowered temps for Saturday which is a big flip flop from no front passing through less than 24 hours ago. If they are expecting only around 50 to 55 down there, Corpus, Houston and San Antonio should at least be in the 40's. At the very least. Maybe one of the old timers at NWS Brownsville was called back for duty for awhile. Right, Portastorm?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
200 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS CAUSING A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS IS CAUSING VERY
STRONG WINDS OVER THE AREA PROMPTING A WIND ADVISORY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT. THE BRO
SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED A PRECIP WATER OF .93 AND A K-INDEX OF
1. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY CAUSING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS
IS VERY SHALLOW AIR AND THUS EXPECTING COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. CLOUDY AND DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND DUE TO OVERRUNNING TYPE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. A WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY VERY SLOWLY BY MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 66 78 55 58 47 / 0 10 20 20 30
BROWNSVILLE 67 80 52 54 43 / 0 10 20 20 30
HARLINGEN 66 80 51 53 42 / 0 10 20 20 30
MCALLEN 65 80 48 51 41 / 0 10 20 20 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 63 77 46 50 40 / 0 10 20 20 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 66 75 56 58 47 / 0 10 20 20 30

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
124 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-171000-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
124 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

...WINTER WEATHER HEADED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS WEEKEND...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND IT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO 40S DURING THE DAY AND DOWN INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL COME CLOSE TO THE
FREEZING MARK LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN. AT THIS
TIME...FREEZING RAIN IS NOT FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IS STILL
IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND
AUSTIN METRO AREA.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. WHILE
THE BULK OF THIS FRIGID AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO STAY NORTH AND EAST
OF OUR AREA...A SMALL MODIFIED PIECE OF THAT AIRMASS WILL PUSH
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY RAIN THAT FALLS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
LIKELY FREEZE...ESPECIALLY ON OVERPASSES...ELEVATED ROADWAYS AND
OTHER EXPOSED SURFACES.

GO TO http://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/EWX FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION...FORECASTS
AND WARNINGS.

[Portastorm]

Maybe one of those ol' Brownsville guys stopped by the NWS office and thwacked one of the young whipper-snapper forecasters upside the head!!



I can hear it now: "Back in my day, we spotted an Arctic front two weeks away with a satellite map!"

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hey AFM...I drew out my temperatures the other day for this weekend calling for low to mid 40's (for highs) for my area. You figured those were WAY too cold. As of now the NWS is calling for a high of 43 Saturday for Conroe and a high of 45 on Sunday. Are you seeing this colder trend? That's a big change from yesterday.

First..when I say Houston...I mean houston proper (metro)....not conroe, Woodlands...but Houston City Limits

So I thought you were speaking of Houston (because your location says Houston), not anywhere else. Take all the numbers I gave you for Houston and lower them by 5 degrees for Conroe (which is about right for the normal difference) and you will see that it's about what I forecasted. I also said the NWS was too warm by 5 degrees (if there was no overrunning...10 if there was).

I still think highs for HOUSTON will be in the low 50's (near 50) Saturday and Sunday. It could be a little colder if it rains more...but it appears it is going to be pretty dry in the mid levels. I think lows will be in the low 40's.

Lower all of that by about 5 degrees for Conroe. So...I misunderstood what you were talking about. I forget that everyone within 100 miles of Houston say they live in Houston. So...if I had known you were talking about Conroe...I would have been more apt to agree with you...although maybe a few degrees warmer.

Latest NWS forecast is calling for a high of just 41F on Saturday!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Check out the latest NWS forecast for north Houston! MUCH COLDER! 35F with rain on Saturday night? Dare I say...a CHANCE of wintry precip???

Friday: A 30 percent chance of rain. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 49 by 5pm. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Friday Night: A 40 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low near 40. North wind around 10 mph.

Saturday: A 50 percent chance of rain. Patchy fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 41. North wind around 10 mph.

Saturday Night: A 40 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 35.

Sunday: A 40 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high around 47.

Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 41.