My 2006 Forecast And Storm By Storm Predictions

[terstorm1012]

what is the history of the names for this year??

Alberto, Beryl and Gordon were namemaker storms in '94...Alberto and Beryl caused flooding in the southeast and late-season Gordon couldn't make up his mind on where to go, after hitting Haiti and Cuba (causing a small crisis at Guantanamo where at the time we were housing refugees from Haiti), it crossed Florida, then looped around the Atlantic coming close to NC before dissapating out at sea.

[Ixolib]

Interesting read, to say the least... Well thought out and very well written! Ever thought of becoming a novelist??

It will be quite interesting to revisit this thread come next December - or even sooner as the season unfolds and storms come and go. I trust you'll periodically bring it back up for debate/discussion, right??!!

Good job (and thanks for avoiding MS!!)

[MiamiensisWx]

Thanks, Ixolib! Yep, I will!

Well I am sorry CapeVerdeWave, the thread title does say MY 2006 forecast doesn't it. I put in my input thinking it was 2006 forecast for everyone. Ah well. You definitley give an in depth analysis. Nice work. Some I agree with and some not so much. I think the numbers are pretty close, and Cape Verde hurricanes will be more frequent this year. I guess we will find out all too soon.

Thanks! What parts do you disagree with? Do you agree on my opinion on a southeast Florida major hurricane?

[terstorm1012]

I would be interested to know what the animals and plants are telling people.

no i'm serious.

that thread from 2004 about the animals and plants acting "odd" on the Gulf Coast, when reread (someone bumped it some weeks ago), was creepy because looking back we all know what happened.

Observations?

[MiamiensisWx]

I agree... they can tell a lot about what may occur.

Before Frances, it was very hot, sultry, and still. There were also few birds at my area and in east-central and southeast Florida.

[MiamiensisWx]

More thoughts?

[windycity]

you have some very interesting thoughts about this season . i totally agree with you about la nina weakening , one can see the sst maps. a neg. enso would put us at a higher risk area. however, we could have more recurves if the bermuda high doesnt pull a 04. I really dont wanna do this again !!!!!

[MiamiensisWx]

I agree, windycity; however, I disagree with the statement that "however, we could have more recurves if the bermuda high doesnt pull a 04". If the ridge is split, landfalls would be diverse, and southeast Florida would be highly vulnerable - just as vulnerable as if the ridge was like 2004. I really feel chances for a major hit in southeast Florida is increasing... I think something big may be coming...

[wxmann_91]

I'm won't even think about the 2006 Hurricane Season before tornado season wraps up. Well, maybe a few times, but my mind is focusing on the severe.

[HurricaneJoe22]

CapeVerdeWave, is seems as if I read at least one post from you a day stating your belief that the threat to SE Florida is increasing. We get it.

[MiamiensisWx]

Oh... I understand. Sorry if I am being annoying and insulting... I'll stop it... I was just being honest...

[windycity]

cvw, you werent being annoying, you just feel strongly about se floridas risk this year.

[MiamiensisWx]

Yep... that's what I mean, windycity! Do you agree?

[Jim Cantore]

17 Named storms
9 hurricanes
5 Major Hurricanes

Most effected areas

Carolinas
East Coast of Florida
Texas

Areas with above average risk

Mid Atlantic
Bermuda
Virgin Islands

[terstorm1012]

Yep... that's what I mean, windycity! Do you agree?

Part of me does not. I see more Cape Verde storms. My gut also places a trough of low pressure over the East and Mid-Atlantic...a-la 1995.

Though one could slip by, *statistically* I don't know if it will be the city-killer Miami is fearing. I am thinking that if South Florida gets hit this year it will be more a Donna, or Cleo, not an Andrew.

[MiamiensisWx]

I never meant an Andrew, terstorm1012. Also, I never said it would hit Miami; I am thinking more of a Fort Lauderdale hit this year.

[windycity]

it does look like a weakening la nina ,the warming sst in the pacific. you were right on the money with that a week ago, cvw. a neg enso would put us at a higher risk for hits. Check out the sst in the carib ,scary. Higher than last year . Sal was a factor last year, this year i just dont see it. Too much moisture.I guess time will tell. (are we having fun yet?)

[MiamiensisWx]

*BUMP*

[MiamiensisWx]

*BUMP*

I feel something like this may be very well possible this year...

[windycity]

yes. very possible. Esspeically if the bermuda high sits low, like in 04. I really hope we dont have to tell you that your hunch was right. If anything close to that happens, it would be awful. It would make Francis,Jeanne, Wilma seem like nothing.The thing is ,i know that youre not -removed- ,you are calling it for what it is. My hunches, based on what i know, often come true.