(New!!) Cold for the Deep South (Models, Maps, Discussion)

[Extremeweatherguy]

Holy!!! Look at the latest Houston AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
249 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...
WINTER IS COMING TO BACK TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE RED
RIVER AREA AT THIS TIME WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE ON TOWARD THE COAST SOME
TIME BEFORE MID-MORNING TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TOMORROW`S HIGHS
PROBABLY OCCURRING SOME TIME IN THE MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT THEN
BECOMES ESTABLISHED RESULTING IN CLOUDY SKIES AND INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES. PERIODS OF COLD RAINS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES PROBABLY OCCURRING UP NORTH.
AS OF NOW...ALL DAY SATURDAY LOOKS JUST PLAIN COLD AND WET WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FORECASTED TO
PERSIST IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. IT WON`T BE MUCH WARMER
DOWN SOUTH WITH CENTRAL AREA READINGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 40S AND COASTAL AREA READINGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S. AREA MODEL SOUNDINGS POINT TOWARD NO FROZEN
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED DUE TO SATURDAY NIGHT`S AND SUNDAY MORNING`S COLDER
TEMPERATURES. IT COULD GET A TAD WARMER ON SUNDAY...BUT ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CONTINUE RESULTING IN CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF RAIN.
PLAN ON SHOWING SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES NEXT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL SHOW SOME CLEARING
NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO TALK ABOUT THE UPCOMING
WEATHER CHANGE AND UPDATE OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BEFORE 21Z.

[southerngale]

Latest NWS forecast is calling for a high of just 41F on Saturday!

And it still says 63° for Beaumont. No way can it be that different. NWS here hasn't updated yet this afternoon. Perhaps they'll make some changes.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.p ... X&site=LCH

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest NWS forecast is calling for a high of just 41F on Saturday!

And it still says 63° for Beaumont. No way can it be that different. NWS here hasn't updated yet this afternoon. Perhaps they'll make some changes.

I am sure they will. Our forecast for Houston has gone from 56-57F yesterday to 41F today. If their latest forecast verifies..this will be the 2nd coldest day so far this winter (for highs that is). EDIT: I just checked out your link and it says the forecast was made YESTERDAY at 5pm at the top. I am sure they will change it when they update it today.

[southerngale]

Geez, what the heck? They usually update it several times a day. I wonder what's up.

[Air Force Met]

Latest NWS forecast is calling for a high of just 41F on Saturday!

Yep...saw that. Now...the real reason is the rain chances are WAY up is the overrunning. It's really not that you are getting 40 degrees from an arctic front...you are getting the dry air. The mid levels aren't as dry as they were initially progged and if you get evaporative cooling into the column...well then you get a lot colder temps. Remember you have a lot of very dry air working down into this direction and if you get a steady rain (and I've talk a lot about this way back when)...your temp and dew point will meet in the middle. If there is not a lot of rain on Saturday...those highs in the low 40's won't materialize. If the temp profiles are supporting 60 for highs...and the dewpoints are 20...but you precip into the column with overrunning...you get those 40 degree days...I just wasn't counting on that much rain to lower the temp to the dewpoint....and I'm still a little skeptical.

[Johnny]

Yep, this is pretty much in line with what I was thinking the other day. Temperatures should not get out of the upper 30's to lower 40's for the central and northern zones of southeast, Texas. Very cold and raw outside for this Saturday, that's for sure.

[Kelarie]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
316 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...
A BIG CHANGE COMING...AFTER MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S TODAY (SOME
RECORD HIGHS) WE'LL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 50 DEGREES TOMORROW. THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN THROUGH SAN ANTONIO AROUND 3 AM. RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP-UP FRIDAY NIGHT AFTER THE SHALLOW FRONT HAS A CHANCE TO INCREASE IN DEPTH AND ALLOW FOR BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS WHETHER OR NOT WE'LL GET FREEZING PRECIP. POSSIBILITIES FOR FROZEN PRECIP ARE NIL GIVEN THE LAYER ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING (GULF AIR). FREEZING PRECIP IS NOT FORECAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...JUST A VERY COLD RAIN. FREEZING RAIN IS FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AFTER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR (MODIFIED ARCTIC) ARRIVES ON SATURDAY. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO RAISE AWARENESS AND DECIDED TO WAIT ON ISSUING A WATCH IN FAVOR OF LOOKING AT ONE MORE RUN OF MODEL DATA FIRST.

ANOTHER...WEAKER...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH MONDAY BY BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...BUT THEY DEPART BEYOND 120H. OUR FORECAST WILL BE CLOSE TO THE GFS BEYOND 120H...BUT VERY CLOSE TO THE 12Z NAM AND ASSOCIATED MOS FOR THE FIRST 72H...WHICH IS MUCH COLDER THAN THE 12Z GFS MOS.

THIS FORECAST NEEDS TO BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR UPDATES BY PEOPLE PLANNING TO TRAVEL OR PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND. IF WE GO A FEW DEGREES BELOW WHAT IS FORECAST WE COULD END UP WITH A PROLONGED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN EVENT.

[Portastorm]

AFM, still the most differential you might see from evap cooling is about 3-4 degrees, right?

Is the degree of evap cooling relevant to how moist the air column is?

[vbhoutex]

Latest NWS forecast is calling for a high of just 41F on Saturday!

That is a HUGE change from what I saw this morning!!!!! I haven't had time to look at anything and not sure when I will, so I ask this question. What are the possibilities of the temps dropping even furhter as the column wets up or is it already expected to completely saturated? Since NWS mentions closely watching the precip type, what do you think about our chances of "winter precip" on this one? It is a very shallow cold layer isn't it? Directing the question to AFM, Jeff and anyone else who cares to answer.

[Extremeweatherguy]

we had sleet mix with rain the last time we had temps. in the 40s and dewpoints in the 20s. I wonder if we could see a similar situation with this system? Also...another factor is Saturday night. Saturday night is forecast to be in the lower to middle 30s...any place that hits 32F or below will see freezing rain (but the question is...will that happen?). I can't wait to see the special weather statement the NWS says they are going to put out...it should come in at any time.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

JB and Tyler have to licking their chops over this event. Hope it happens for both of them.

[Air Force Met]

AFM, still the most differential you might see from evap cooling is about 3-4 degrees, right?

Is the degree of evap cooling relevant to how moist the air column is?

NOt sure exactly what you are asking but I've seen evaporative cooling take 15 degrees out of the atmosphere before. I used to have a graph from our wx monitor to show our young forecasters the effects. The day started at 55 w/ a dew point of 20...and when the rain started you could see the temp and dewpoint meet at 40. NOw...this is ASSUMING that there is NO warm air advection to replentish the disappearing warm air (which won't be an issue here) so you need it to be post-fropa and very low clouds...stratiform type of stuff with an inversion to keep the atmosphere from mixing the warmer air aloft down to the sfc (which is what we will have).

So...when you have dry air and lots of rain and continuing weak cold air advection and dry air advection...you get it...which is what is setting up for Saturday.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
328 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...AFTER A GENERALLY WARM
PERIOD COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY OVER THE LAST COUPLE MONTHS...WINTER
WILL MAKE A RETURN TO SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE WEEKEND. THE GFS/NAM ARE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT/SHALLOW ARCTIC
AIRMASS INTO THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A TRICKY FORECAST FOR MINIMUM TEMPS TONIGHT AND MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SLOWLY DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. BEFORE THE FRONT...WITH HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG
TO FORM OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY SEA FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND BAYS. A VERY WEAK MID
TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES FRIDAY. WITH ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION
IN SHALLOW LAYER ELEVATED ABOVE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS...WILL
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS WITH LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. ISENTROPIC
LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT BUT
EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION. WILL ISSUE SPS
FOR SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN UPCOMING.

&&

.LONG-TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE
TRENDED COLDER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A STRONGER BUT SHALLOW ARCTIC
AIRMASS MAKING IT SLIGHTLY FARTHER S AND INTO THE GULF. STRONG SLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SHALLOW AIRMASS
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. THUS THE CHC FOR CLOUDY...COLD AND WET
CONDITIONS STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE
WITH 40-50 POPS SAT THRU SUN MORN WITH STRATIFORM -RA. MET GUIDANCE
IS ADVERTISING FREEZING TEMPS FOR SAT NIGHT...HOWEVER GIVEN THE
"BLANKET" OF CLOUDS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DROP TO FREEZING AND
THUS AM NOT CONFIDENT THE CWA WILL SEE A FREEZE AND WENT WITH A
COMPROMISE OF MET AND GFS GUIDANCE WITH THE FREEZING LINE CLIPPING
THE EXTREME NRN TIER OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FREEZE
POTENTIAL FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING AND WILL LET LATER SHIFT ANALYZE
LATEST MODEL RUNS AND TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF A WSW FOR FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE NEEDED.

A TROF DVLPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BDRY AND IS PROGD TO STALL IN THE
GULF AND RETREAT NE SUN AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP CHCS DIMINISHING FROM
SW TO NE THRU SUN NIGHT. THIS ALSO RESULTS IN A RETURN FLOW OVER THE
E CWA ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
INTO MON. GFS SOLN HAS SPED UP THE SECOND COLD FRONT TO MON
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BLDG MON NIGHT/TUE...HOWEVER IT IS NOW
PROGD TO BE A WEAKER SYSTEM. HAVE INCLUDED A SLT CHC OF -RA FOR MON
AFTERNOON AS OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS DVLP ONCE AGAIN AND PREVAIL INTO
TUE. KEPT IT DRY FOR WED AND THU WITH GHOST 10 POPS FOR NOW DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 63 66 45 51 44 / 10 20 40 30 50
VICTORIA 57 57 41 47 33 / 20 30 40 30 50
LAREDO 61 61 45 50 41 / 10 10 30 20 40
ALICE 61 63 43 50 39 / 10 20 40 30 50
ROCKPORT 64 64 45 52 45 / 10 20 40 30 40
COTULLA 54 54 40 49 34 / 10 10 40 20 40
KINGSVILLE 63 67 46 51 42 / 10 20 40 30 50 [/b]

[deltadog03]

ok, winter storm watches going up.....

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
302 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NORTH TEXAS FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF A LINE FROM TEMPLE TO
GROESBECK TO PALESTINE. A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SLEET IS EXPECTED OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND...

.A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY
EVENING WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT.
FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE NORTH AND SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. PERIODS OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF AT LEAST ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO COOL...SLEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GROUND TEMPERATURE AT THIS TIME IS VERY WARM BUT BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES WILL ICE QUICKLY PRESENTING AN IMMEDIATE DANGER TO
DRIVERS. HOWEVER...ROADWAYS WILL INITIALLY REMAIN ICE FREE FOR A
FEW HOURS LONGER WHILE THE GROUND COOLS.

TXZ091>093-100>103-115>117-129-170515-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.A.0001.060217T2100Z-060220T0000Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-EASTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...DECATUR...
BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...
BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...CISCO...
EASTLAND...RANGER...GORMAN
302 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SLEET MAY ALSO OCCUR BEGINNING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OVER ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

TXZ094-095-104>107-118>121-123-130>134-141>145-170515-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.A.0001.060218T0000Z-060220T0000Z/
FANNIN-LAMAR-COLLIN-HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-
KAUFMAN-RAINS-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-ELLIS-COMANCHE-MILLS-
HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BONHAM...PARIS...PLANO...GREENVILLE...
COMMERCE...COOPER...SULPHUR SPRINGS...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...
DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...KAUFMAN...FORNEY...EMORY...POINT...
EAST TAWAKONI...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...
ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...COMANCHE...DE LEON...
GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...MERIDIAN...
VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO
302 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN FRIDAY EVENING WITH PERIODS CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OVER ONE QUARTER OF
AN INCH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

TXZ122-135-146>148-156>161-170515-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.A.0001.060218T0600Z-060220T0000Z/
VAN ZANDT-HENDERSON-NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-
BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILLS POINT...CANTON...GRAND SALINE...
VAN...EDGEWOOD...ATHENS...GUN BARREL CITY...CORSICANA...TEAGUE...
FAIRFIELD...PALESTINE...LAMPASAS...COPPERAS COVE...GATESVILLE...
KILLEEN...TEMPLE...FORT HOOD...WACO...MARLIN...MEXIA...GROESBECK
302 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OVER ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

[Portastorm]

AFM, still the most differential you might see from evap cooling is about 3-4 degrees, right?

Is the degree of evap cooling relevant to how moist the air column is?

NOt sure exactly what you are asking but I've seen evaporative cooling take 15 degrees out of the atmosphere before. I used to have a graph from our wx monitor to show our young forecasters the effects. The day started at 55 w/ a dew point of 20...and when the rain started you could see the temp and dewpoint meet at 40. NOw...this is ASSUMING that there is NO warm air advection to replentish the disappearing warm air (which won't be an issue here) so you need it to be post-fropa and very low clouds...stratiform type of stuff with an inversion to keep the atmosphere from mixing the warmer air aloft down to the sfc (which is what we will have).

So...when you have dry air and lots of rain and continuing weak cold air advection and dry air advection...you get it...which is what is setting up for Saturday.

This is exactly what I was asking in my uneducated manner ... thanks AFM, this is great and yet another reason why I love this board so much!!!

[Air Force Met]

we had sleet mix with rain the last time we had temps. in the 40s and dewpoints in the 20s. I wonder if we could see a similar situation with this system? Also...another factor is Saturday night. Saturday night is forecast to be in the lower to middle 30s...any place that hits 32F or below will see freezing rain (but the question is...will that happen?). I can't wait to see the special weather statement the NWS says they are going to put out...it should come in at any time.

Nope...last time if you remember there was a thin slice of air below freezing with a nose of warm air then all the column above it below freezing. This time there is no 2-3k feet of below freezing temps. The airmass is very shallow. The temps aloft at 850 are 10-14C...which is only 5000' above the sfc. If there is a layer below freezing...it won't be thick enough to freeze water that has been falling through a layer that warm and the freezing level above that is at 600mb...

Evaporative cooling is a strange friend to winter weather lovers...and you never know if it will show up until you are sure if it will rain on you all day...now that is the real ? for Saturday.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well, the Houston NWS special weather statement is out...here it is...

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
339 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-171200-
MATAGORDA BAY-GALVESTON BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-HOUSTON-TRINITY-
MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-WASHINGTON-GRIMES-
MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-
FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...
BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...CONROE...LIBERTY...
CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...
BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...
WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...
SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...EDNA...
BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...GALVESTON...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...
FRIENDSWOOD
339 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

...STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
ON TOWARD THE COAST SOME TIME BEFORE MID-MORNING TOMORROW. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN A RETURN
TO MORE WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA.

FRIDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING
HOURS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH LOWER 40S INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST
EXPECTED BY SUNSET. CLOUDY SKIES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND...CLOUDY SKIES...COLD
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL PERSIST. AT THIS TIME...
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY RAIN
AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT
COMPUTER MODEL TREND POINTS TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF EVEN COLDER
TEMPERATURES. IF THIS TREND PERSISTS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS.

WEEKEND TRAVEL NORTH AND WEST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...TOWARD THE RED
RIVER OR THE HILL COUNTRY AREAS...SHOULD BE AVOIDED IF POSSIBLE DUE
TO THE CHANCE OF FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES... INCLUDING WATCHES OR WARNINGS...WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER WEATHER NEWS SOURCES
FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

**Wow..they mentioned "winter weather advisories" as a possibility if models trend colder. LETS HOPE THEY DO!!**

[southerngale]

Remember when I said that a local showed 48° for a high on Saturday? I first noticed that yesterday afternoon. Well, this afternoon, they lowered it to 42° and for Sunday...a low of 34° and a high of 38°! With 50% chance of rain. Dare I say...is it even possible? Oh AFM...yoohooo...tell me the good word. lol




Edit: Meanwhile, I think something is wrong at NWS. They haven't updated the forecast and they still show a high of 63° for Saturday and a high of 59° for Sunday. This forecast is 24 hours old.

[Extremeweatherguy]

My personal prediction is that many areas north of I-10 get a glaze of ice or may be a sleet pellet or two out of this..but I this is just my gut feeling and not definite....all I can say is I HOPE we do. Worst case would probably be a situation where accumulating freezing rain could fall...but I doubt that will happen.

[Air Force Met]

Remember when I said that a local showed 48° for a high on Saturday? I first noticed that yesterday afternoon. Well, this afternoon, they lowered it to 42° and for Sunday...a low of 34° and a high of 38°! With 50% chance of rain. Dare I say...is it even possible? Oh AFM...yoohooo...tell me the good word. lol




Edit: Meanwhile, I think something is wrong at NWS. They haven't updated the forecast and they still show a high of 63° for Saturday and a high of 59° for Sunday. This forecast is 24 hours old.

Hey...I'm not sure about that...but we are going to the Bon Jovi concert next Tuesday night!