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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0130
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX AND SERN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 102117Z - 102315Z
LINE OF STRONG TSTMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST AND PARTS
OF SWRN LA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
INTENSE RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE LINE OF STORMS BUT A WATCH IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
LINE OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 1-2
HOURS FROM 20 NE VCT TO 35 SE UTS TO 25 NW POE. THIS ACTIVITY IS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING SEWD INTO THE TX COASTAL PLAIN AS
STRONG LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OCCURS OVER THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS. AIR MASS ALONG THE GULF WAS MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
WITH STRONG MID LEVEL INVERSION INHIBITING STRONGER UPDRAFTS UNTIL
RECENTLY. IT APPEARS THAT LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT
COMBINED AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT HAVE EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATED THE MID
LEVEL INHIBITION AND PROMOTED UPDRAFT STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR SO. LINE OF FORCED ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ACROSS
THE HOU METRO AND THEN INTO SWRN LA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY STRONG DYNAMICS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN ARE SUFFICIENT FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND LEWPS IN
THE LINE. HOWEVER...WITH INSTABILITY LIMITED BY WEAK LOW THROUGH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ANY DAMAGING WIND THREAT FROM THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/BRIEF.
..CARBIN.. 02/10/2006
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...
28729548 28509681 29399601 30499477 31349323 30799214
30159179 29479181 28699466
