(New!!) Cold for the Deep South (Models, Maps, Discussion)

[southerngale]

Remember when I said that a local showed 48° for a high on Saturday? I first noticed that yesterday afternoon. Well, this afternoon, they lowered it to 42° and for Sunday...a low of 34° and a high of 38°! With 50% chance of rain. Dare I say...is it even possible? Oh AFM...yoohooo...tell me the good word. lol




Edit: Meanwhile, I think something is wrong at NWS. They haven't updated the forecast and they still show a high of 63° for Saturday and a high of 59° for Sunday. This forecast is 24 hours old.

Hey...I'm not sure about that...but we are going to the Bon Jovi concert next Tuesday night!

Me too!! I can't wait!

I made me a countdown on tickerfactory.com about a month ago. lol

[Brent]

Edit: Meanwhile, I think something is wrong at NWS. They haven't updated the forecast and they still show a high of 63° for Saturday and a high of 59° for Sunday. This forecast is 24 hours old.

Saturday...Rain...Cooler. Highs in the lower 50s. Northeast winds around 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Saturday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Lows in the upper 30s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.

Sunday...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Highs in the mid 50s.

Sunday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Warmer. Lows around 50.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/forecasts/ ... son+County The point forecast isn't updated, but the Zone is.

[Extremeweatherguy]

A look at what Houston local news stations are predicting:



^^Channel 2^^

There is a big weather change in store for Southeast Texas and it couldn’t be happening at a worse time with all of the weekend activities. Forecast guidance is now showing bitterly cold air invading Texas, sending temperatures plummeting into the 30’s. An unfavorable upper air pattern will send warm moist air over the cold surface locking in the clouds and producing precipitation and there’s the rub. With temperatures approaching freezing, large sections of the state may get a coating of freezing rain or drizzle. Houston’s National Weather Service is cautioning driving west or north of Houston beginning Saturday as it is possible roads may become icy. North Texas (Dallas area) is now under a Winter Storm Watch. RIGHT NOW we are not expecting freezing precip in the Houston metro area, but if temperatures are colder than forecast then it’s possible. Of course we’ll monitor this situation and report any updates.

^^Off of KHOU Channel 11 website. By the way..they have the high at 41F on Sat. and 38F on Sun. similar to the Beaumont news forecast^^

Channel 13 = Forecast for Sat. is 45F (this is the warmest local forecast)

[southerngale]

Thanks Brent. I was always use this link , and type in surrounding cities or zips and it always updates several times a day. I wonder why they haven't updated it since yesterday afternoon though.


Anyway, I see they've lowered it. NWS and KFDM are still nowhere close to each other.

[BreinLa]

Wow SG your forecast sure is alot different than mine here in good ole Louuusiana, same NWS forecast up for me too since yesterday at 5 PM, blow some of that cold weather my way

[Air Force Met]

Me too!! I can't wait!

Cool. Just look around for the crazy woman screaming her head off: "Richie...I love you" and singing every song at full volume.

That'll be my wife. I'll be the scrunched over mass to the right of her hiding my face.

[southerngale]

Me too!! I can't wait!

Cool. Just look around for the crazy woman screaming her head off: "Richie...I love you" and singing every song at full volume.

That'll be my wife. I'll be the scrunched over mass to the right of her hiding my face.

I'll be the one near the front singing every song and screaming "Jon...I love you" and plotting on how to get on stage with him. LOL
I have some concert DVD's and he tends to let some girls join him on stage for a song or part of a song. Of course that wouldn't really work...I'd likely just faint!

[wxman22]

The ETA (NAM) model looks Intresting....

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow...the ETA is VERY interesting. I have a feeling that we will see at least a trace of ice (enough to be noticed) from Brenham to Spring to Ames and then north and westward. Even if not, 40F with rain is wintry enough for me. Either way a nice winter weekend is on the way...and tomorrows cold front will be fun as it will come with lots of wind and a nice temp. drop.

[southerngale]

Wow SG your forecast sure is alot different than mine here in good ole Louuusiana, same NWS forecast up for me too since yesterday at 5 PM, blow some of that cold weather my way

That's just one station. I missed the news so I don't know what the others said. I found that on KFDM website. Out of the other two, one doesn't have a website (shocking, I know) and the other is showing a high of 64° on Saturday and 58° on Sunday, on their site.



Btw, KFDM has mentioned the possiblity of freezing rain in the Lakes area. That's north of Beaumont though in the Jasper area (Sam Rayburn, Toledo Bend).

Back to Winter beginning Friday as a strong Cold Front moves through the region. A few showers will be possible with the front. Temperatures will be falling Friday into Saturday. Look for overrunning light rain this weekend and if surface temperatures get cold enough could even be some Freezing rain in the Lakes. Highs only in the 30's Sunday.

[TexasSam]

For as much of a weather nut as I am, I have to admit I was a bit taken back. I just looked at the Houston weather, about 30 min. ago, and had no idea that things had changed that much.

[Extremeweatherguy]

For as much of a weather nut as I am, I have to admit I was a bit taken back. I just looked at the Houston weather, about 30 min. ago, and had no idea that things had changed that much.

yes what a major change. This morning when I checked they were expecting a high of 50F and a low of 42-43F...this afternoon when I checked they are expecting a high of MAY BE as high as 41F and a low in the lower to middle 30s. If this colder trend continues, then I wonder what the forecast will look like tomorrow.

[southerngale]

For as much of a weather nut as I am, I have to admit I was a bit taken back. I just looked at the Houston weather, about 30 min. ago, and had no idea that things had changed that much.

yes what a major change. This morning when I checked they were expecting a high of 50F and a low of 42-43F...this afternoon when I checked they are expecting a high of MAY BE as high as 41F and a low in the lower to middle 30s. If this colder trend continues, then I wonder what the forecast will look like tomorrow.

[cheezyWXguy]

For as much of a weather nut as I am, I have to admit I was a bit taken back. I just looked at the Houston weather, about 30 min. ago, and had no idea that things had changed that much.

yes what a major change. This morning when I checked they were expecting a high of 50F and a low of 42-43F...this afternoon when I checked they are expecting a high of MAY BE as high as 41F and a low in the lower to middle 30s. If this colder trend continues, then I wonder what the forecast will look like tomorrow.

ur just trying to tempt me, arent you

[cheezyWXguy]

o wait no...that pic isnt as tempting now that i c that theyre fixing a power poll

[WhiteShirt]

For as much of a weather nut as I am, I have to admit I was a bit taken back. I just looked at the Houston weather, about 30 min. ago, and had no idea that things had changed that much.

Same here. I'm in the Baytown area, too.

[Johnny]

EWG...as of now it looks like the NWS is on top of this event. I don't see the temperatures straying all that far from the current forecast for this weekend here in Southeast, Texas. I'm taking off in the morning to Wimberley in the hill country. Hopefully we will get some wintery weather while we are there.

[Extremeweatherguy]

EWG...as of now it looks like the NWS is on top of this event. I don't see the temperatures straying all that far from the current forecast for this weekend here in Southeast, Texas. I'm taking off in the morning to Wimberley in the hill country. Hopefully we will get some wintery weather while we are there.

Yes, I think overall they are doing a good job with this system. The only thing that worries me is that they said that they may have to trend temps. down a little further if the models continue to show a cooler look. Either way it looks like YOU will be in luck...the hill country is forecasting Freezing rain, so you will probably be seeing some ice on your trip...just be careful on the roads!

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag226.html

Take a look at the temps. behind the front! Brrr.. It is hard to believe that it is 50 degrees colder in the panhandle right now than it is here in Houston.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is an update from the NWS in Austin...this just shows that even they seem to be shocked with the strength and speed of this thing..

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
803 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

.UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS GONE THROUGH LUBBOCK, ABILENE, STEPHENVILLE AND
PARIS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOSING SOUTH AT 20 MPH. AND WITH
THE MASSIVE DOME OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT, EXPECTING THE FRONT TO
PICK UP SPEED. FROPA TIMES: MIDNIGHT - PANDALE, JUNO, LLANO AND
BURNET. 2 AM - LANGTRY, LOMA ALTA, BARKSDALE, BANDERA, BOERNE, SAN
MARCOS AND GIDDINGS. 4 AM - EAGLE PASS, PLEASANTON, POTH, YOAKUM
AND HALLETTSVILLE. THE SURFACE WINDS IMMEDIATELY WITH THE FRONT
ARE SUSTAINED AT 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. WILL INCREASE WINDS
TO REFLECT THIS. ALSO, A LINE OF CU CLOUDS ARE FORMING ALONG THE
FRONT AS THE MOISTURE IS LIFTED OVER THE FRONTAL SLOPE. THIS WILL
SQUEEZE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT. THE FULL BLOWN OVERRUNNING
CLOUDINESS AND RAIN WILL START AFTER MIDNIGHT.