(New!!) Cold for the Deep South (Models, Maps, Discussion)

[weatherrabbit_tx]

I still think nws houston/galveston may have to lower there temps saturday, just a hunch, however mid to upper 30s is a good bet i feel, but we'll see....

[Extremeweatherguy]

I still think nws houston/galveston may have to lower there temps saturday, just a hunch, however mid to upper 30s is a good bet i feel, but we'll see....

I agree...I think north Houston will see middle to upper 30s with upper 30s to near 40 downtown and lower to middle 40s south of town.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is the update from the NWS in Houston:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
859 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...
CF ALONG A TEXARKANA TO CORSICANA LINE THIS EVENING. IT WILL REACH
EXT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SE TX AROUND 11 PM. HAVE SPED UP THE FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA AN HOUR OR TWO...SO MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST. LOWERED MIN TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES ACROSS THE CEN AND
COASTAL ZONES TONIGHT...ALSO INCREASED WINDS ACROSS INLAND AREAS BEHIND
THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT. NW ZONES WILL ACTUALLY BE CLOSE TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEHIND THE FRONT. BELIEVE THAT THE ATMOS IS TOO CAPPED
FOR TSTMS ACROSS SE TX...SO REMOVED THEM FROM TONIGHT`S FORECAST AND
LEFT IN SHWRS. COULD SEE FOG AFT MIDNIGHT ACROSS COASTAL ZONES AND 1ST
INLAND TIER OF COUNTIES...BUT WINDS MAY REMAIN TOO HIGH...WE WILL SEE.
DECIDED TO ADD A MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF FZRA SAT NIGHT AND EARLY
SUN MORNING ACROSS THE NW 1/3 OF THE CWA. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER
30S...SO IT WILL BE A CLOSE. FUTURE SHIFTS HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO
EVALUATE HOW MUCH OF A THREAT FZRA MIGHT BE ACROSS THE NW. STAY TUNED.

Well, well. The northern 1/3rds of the area now have frz. rain in the forecast! Starting to look interesting..

[KatDaddy]

Yeah but no snow

Christmas 2004 forevermore....The TX Coast!!!!

We wont see it again in our lives.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Yeah but no snow

Christmas 2004 forevermore....The TX Coast!!!!

We wont see it again in our lives.

Well, maybe again someday.

[PTrackerLA]

I'd LOVE to know how we're going to have a high of 69 on Saturday while Houston might struggle to reach 40. I think the NWS is clueless on this even for my area. At least the local stations are more realistic with highs in the low 60's and low's near 40 but I believe this is still too warm. We'll see what happens but alot of people are going to be caught off guard by how cold it will be saturday.

[Extremeweatherguy]

well folks...this front is still as strong as ever! 1 hour ago it passed Waco, and here are the changes the city has seen since then:

1 hour temp. change = -12F
Temp. before front = 72F
Temp. one hour after front = 60F
1 hour Dew point change = -29F
Dew point before front = 57F
Dew point one hour after front = 28F
Winds behind front = N @ 23mph
Gusts behind front = N @ 36mph

**Those dewpoint drops are pretty crazy! A near 30F drop in dew points in just 60 minutes! Not to mention the near 40mph gusts and the 12F temp. drop (in 1 hour)!**

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I'd LOVE to know how we're going to have a high of 69 on Saturday while Houston might struggle to reach 40. I think the NWS is clueless on this even for my area. At least the local stations are more realistic with highs in the low 60's and low's near 40 but I believe this is still too warm. We'll see what happens but alot of people are going to be caught off guard by how cold it will be saturday.

It very possible with Arctic fronts for you guys up in Louisiana to be colder than south Texas. A few years ago towards the end of February I was up in Baton Rouge for business and I left there with temps in the 50's to return to Corpus with temps in the 30's that afternoon. And that wasn't expected from what I recall. Simialr situation might be happening this weekend.

[southerngale]

Wow...just watched Ch.6 KFDM and they lowered Sundays highs even more, from 38° to 36°!





My A/C is on and the wind chill in Amarillo is -11°!! Wow, strong front!!

Dallas hit 85° today and now they're COLD!

Local met on KFDM said that he thinks most of the freezing precip will stay just to our north, but with temps so low and a good chance of precip, we'll have to watch it closely!

I caught KBMT and they have a high of 50° on Saturday and a high of 47° on Sunday. Big difference!

[Brent]

http://image.weather.com/images/maps/cu ... 00x405.jpg

Good grief... I haven't seen a front this strong in years.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Are you aborad?

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

http://image.weather.com/images/maps/current/acttemp_600x405.jpg

Good grief... I haven't seen a front this strong in years.

From JB's evening colum:

"This reminds me a bit of the 1979 super front, for places in the Ohio valley today that were in the 60s will be in the 20s tomorrow. But Childress Texas had a record high of 93 on the 14th and a record lo of 13 36 hours later. "

Can you imagine that? Going from 93 to 13, both records in a day and a half. Wow ! I've seen big temp reversals within a day down here, but that takes the cake.

[aggiecutter]

The upper flow didn't effect this front one bit. When you have northerly wind gust in the 20's and 30's with a frontal passage, that means the air is gushing south. This front is going to clear the entire state within 12 hours. I imagine forcast are being rewritten as I type.

[CajunMama]

I'd LOVE to know how we're going to have a high of 69 on Saturday while Houston might struggle to reach 40. I think the NWS is clueless on this even for my area. At least the local stations are more realistic with highs in the low 60's and low's near 40 but I believe this is still too warm. We'll see what happens but alot of people are going to be caught off guard by how cold it will be saturday.

PT, Rob Perillo said high saturday of 52....

[aggiecutter]

The updated forcast for Texarkana. It could get real ugly around here this weekend...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.p ... 3&map.y=89

[southerngale]

I'd LOVE to know how we're going to have a high of 69 on Saturday while Houston might struggle to reach 40. I think the NWS is clueless on this even for my area. At least the local stations are more realistic with highs in the low 60's and low's near 40 but I believe this is still too warm. We'll see what happens but alot of people are going to be caught off guard by how cold it will be saturday.

PT, Rob Perillo said high saturday of 52....

Because that 69° NWS shows for Lafayette was updated on the 15th at 5pm! They haven't updated Beaumont either. It's stuck on 63° for a high. Something must be wrong over there.

Special Weather Statements in Galveston and SE of Morgan City, surrounding the entire Lake Charles NWS forecast area, but nothing here.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well the front came through in north Houston. Right now I am getting light rain, gusty winds, and the temp. has gone from near 70F to near 50F in just 1-2 hours! The morning shift has kept the forecast the same as the afternoon shift yesterday for us...but I have the feeling it may be lowered a little later or tomorrow morning...especially if we get more rain than expected. The big question will be...WILL WE SEE FROZEN PRECIP??? The NWS says that it will be a possibility a few counties north of here...but with temps. so low, we will really need to watch closely. Remember the sleet in December? Well that was never forecasted until AFTER it was happening...so I am not giving up hope yet. Another reason not to give up hope is because accuweather.com is forecasting 33F tomorrow night and with temps. that low, you just never know what could happen. If it drops another degree you get freezing rain, and if a small upper level pocket of cold air, thick enough to produce sleet is overhead...then you get sleet. Lots to watch...but either way, the coldest days since early December are on the way!

[Extremeweatherguy]

WOW!!! I just checked KHOU.com and they are forecasting a high of 38F on Saturday and 35F on Sunday! They also have lows in the 32-35F range! I hope they are right as they are the coldest forecast I have seen so far.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Actually (upon a recent check) the forecast has changed! The forecast for Sunday has dropped significantly! The high was expected in the upper 40s on Sunday...but now they have lowered that forecast to a high of 41F. Wow, it is going to be very weird going from 81 yesterday to a 3-4 day stretch of 40s Today-Sun/Mon. In fact, with highs expected at 41-42F on Sat. AND Sun.; some places may not get above 40F this whole weekend!

Edit: Holy! Look at the 24-hr. temperature change as seen on weather.com...this front is truly amazing!


^^As of 7am.^^

For the latest image..click here:

http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/cur ... large.html

[aggiecutter]

The artic air continues to pour southward. Even you guys in south texas could see some wintry precip before it is all said and done...

http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag226.html