06' Name History and Predictions

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Weatherfreak000

06' Name History and Predictions

#1 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Thu Feb 16, 2006 7:59 pm

Following such a devastating year as 2005. One can only truly wonder what we're going to see for 2006. A quick analysis of the history of the names shows patterns and intensity curves in names. Maybe that'll keep us alert for what to expect this coming season. Here i'll introduce what i've digged up from these systems.


Alberto

History:

1982- Formation in Early June as a Category 1 Hurricane Alberto tracked as a Gulf Storm never making landfall likely due to shear.
1988- Formation in Early August as a Tropical Storm. This storm tracked off the East Coast and landfalling between New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.
1994- Formation in Late June and peaked as a TS, Alberto formed in the Carribean and slammed into the Florida Panhandle. This being it's only landfall in history.
2000- Formation in Early August and peaking as a powerful Category 3 hurricane. This Alberto was a long lived Cape Verde fish.


Image


Average Intensity of Alberto: 68.75 (TS)


Beryl

History:

1982: Late August TS. This storm was an atlantic fish.
1988: An Early August TS this time around. This Beryl formed quickly and struck Louisiana as a weak system.
1994: This time a Mid August TS. She made landfall on the Florida Panhandle after formation in the Gulf of Mexico.
2000: Yet again, a Mid August TS. This Beryl was a Bay of Campeche formed system that struck Mexico.

Image


Average intensity of Beryl: 50.75 a slightly below average Tropical Storm.

Chris

History:

1982: Chris formed here as an Early September TS making landfall similar to Rita near the TX/LA Border.
1988: Here he was a late August TS that formed in the Atlantic striking South Carolina.
1994: Here Chris became a Category One Hurricane. Besides that it
2000: This time around he was a Mid August TS fish in the Atlantic.

Image


Average Intensity of Chris: 51. 25


Debby

History:

1982: Formed as a Late September storm a powerful Category 4 hurricane. But despite that, here Debby went fish.
1988: Formation here in late August as a Category One Hurricane. This Debby was a typical Bay of Campeche mexico strike.
1994: This Debby formed in Early September as a TS. It dissipated almost harmlessly in the Caribbean.
2000: This Debby was yet again a Category One Hurricane. It crossed through the Caribbean Islands with it's center never making landfall and eventually dissipating.

Image

Average Intensity of Debby: 78.75 (Category One)

Ernesto

History:

1982: Formation in Late September as a Tropical Storm, another fish.
1988: Similar to 1982 except Early September formation.
1994: Almost exactly like 1982.
2000: Almost exactly like 1988.


Image


Average Intensity of Ernesto: 50


Florence

History: (A very very long one at that)

1953: This formation was a Late September Cat 3 panhandle strike.
1954: This storm was a Early September Cat 1 Bay of Campeche Mexico strike.
1960: A very diverse Tropical Storm, this Florence was a Mid September storm and made landfall in Cuba, the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Panhandle.
1964: This formation was an Early September TS that was a Cape Verde style fish.
1988: Florence here was an Early September Cat 1 making landfall into Lousiana.
1944: This Florence was an Early November system that made Category 2 status before going fish in the Atlantic.
2000: And finally in Mid September, this Florence made Cat One and went fish in the Atlantic.

Image


Average Intensity of Florence: 70


Gordon


History:

1994: Gordon here formed in Early November and peaked at Cat 1. Gordon here struck the Florida Peninsula twice.
2000: Here a Mid September formation, Gordon yet again struck the Florida Peninsula and peaked as a Cat 1 Hurricane.

Image

Average Intensity of Gordon: 72.5


Helene

History: (A monster in some cases here)

1958: A late September formation here, Helene made Cat 4 before coming close to the Carolinas and recurving into the Atlantic.
1988: A Mid September formation, Helene again reaches Cat 4 also again going fish in the altantic.
2000: Here another Mid September formation, this time Helene was only an average TS before striking the Florida Panhandle.

Image



Average Intensity of Helene: 100 (A stronger Category 2 system)


Issac


History:

1988: Issac hear formed in Late September as a Tropical Storm. It then dissipated in the Atlantic.
2000: Here Issac formed in late September as a Cat 4 Cape Verde fish.


Image


Average Intensity of Issac: 80


Joyce

History:

2000: here was it's debut formation in Late September as an Atlantic fish dissipating into the Caribbean peaking at Cat 1 status.

Image

Average Intensity of Joyce: 80


Kirk


History: N/A


Leslie


History:


2000: Leslie's only formation thus far was in Early October. It remained a Tropical Storm and stayed off the East Coast never making landfall.


Image


Average Intensity of Leslie: 60


Michael


History:

2000: Here with Michael's only formation it became a Cat 2 hurricane in the Atlantic and only striking Newfoundland.

Image


Average Intensity of Michael: 80


Nadine


History: Nadine yet another storm with only a history in 2000 formed in Mid to late October and never affected land only making TS Status.

Image

Average Intensity of Nadine: 50


Oscar


History: N/A


Patty


History: N/A


Rafael


N/A



Sandy



N/A



Tony



N/A




Valerie




N/A



William



N/A













So that's it, you can notice the similarites and differences. It is well noted here that the history of these storms would show that there were few Cape Verde storms, Many Atlantic fishes and definitely below average East Coast strikes. From what I see here if history shows well we may see an above average amount of fish storms and unfortunately many gulf strikes.


I'll probably update the topic as the season progresses to see how the new data stacks up with the old. So here's an interesting read for everyone as we await the 2006 season.
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MiamiensisWx

#2 Postby MiamiensisWx » Thu Feb 16, 2006 8:11 pm

Very interesting and well-organized; however, unfortunately, I don't think name history really is a good indication of how the season will be.
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Weatherfreak000

yeah...

#3 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Thu Feb 16, 2006 8:13 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Very interesting and well-organized; however, unfortunately, I don't think name history really is a good indication of how the season will be.



That's a fair opinion that I definitely agree with. I just found the information interesting and if you look closely like in cases with Ernesto the storm's overall tracking can be really consistent.



But obviously time will tell. You know I was scared of Cape Verde storms before 05 and now i'm wishing TD #10 would have formed.
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MiamiensisWx

#4 Postby MiamiensisWx » Thu Feb 16, 2006 8:16 pm

Agreed, Weatherfreak000!
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Weatherfreak000

#5 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Thu Feb 16, 2006 11:18 pm

Also i'd like to note my nickname Tony is in the list for the first time this year lol.



Normally i'd feel bad but after Wilma ya never know I guess...
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Derek Ortt

#6 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Feb 17, 2006 8:28 am

Debby in 1994 was not harmless. It brought wind gusts on Martinique to near 100 m.p.h. and caused moderate damage there and neighboring islands. In addition, it killed 9 people
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Weatherfreak000

#7 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Fri Feb 17, 2006 9:53 am

Derek Ortt wrote:Debby in 1994 was not harmless. It brought wind gusts on Martinique to near 100 m.p.h. and caused moderate damage there and neighboring islands. In addition, it killed 9 people



That's interesting I never really knew that, an interesting note to add.
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#8 Postby Hurricanehink » Fri Feb 17, 2006 10:10 am

Just a little nitpick, but some of your calculations might be wrong. For example, on Gordon, they both were Category 1 hurricanes, yet their average is 72.5- tropical storm strength. Here's some more Death information for those that killed over 10. Alberto (1982) killed 23 in Cuba, Beryl (1982) killed 115 in Cape Verde, Debby (1988) killed 10 in Mexico, Alberto (1994) killed 30 in southeast U.S., Gordon (1994) killed 1,145 in Caribbean (mostly in Haiti) and Florida, and Gordon (2000) killed 24 (23 in Guatemala). Good job overall, though.
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Jim Cantore

Re: yeah...

#9 Postby Jim Cantore » Fri Feb 17, 2006 2:19 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:
CapeVerdeWave wrote:Very interesting and well-organized; however, unfortunately, I don't think name history really is a good indication of how the season will be.


Its just fun info to look at 8-)
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MiamiensisWx

#10 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri Feb 17, 2006 4:50 pm

Agree, Hurricane Floyd!
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#11 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Fri Feb 17, 2006 5:03 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Very interesting and well-organized; however, unfortunately, I don't think name history really is a good indication of how the season will be.


That is an understatement :) ... the 1999 Katrina was a Central American TS that hardly reached that level, maxing out at 35 KT for only 2 advisories.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1999katrina.html

That said, I hope this one IS an indicator as it would suggest a season of mild storms and a lot of fishes!

Okay, wishful thinking.

A2K
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#12 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Fri Feb 17, 2006 6:20 pm

I highly doubt it will be. I honestly do, but here is hoping 8-)
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#13 Postby AussieMark » Fri Feb 17, 2006 8:42 pm

also of note this name list has happened during a El Nino on 2 occasions

1982
June: +0.7°C
July: +0.8°C
Aug: +1.0°C
Sep: +1.5°C
Oct: +1.9°C
Nov: +2.2°C

1994
June: +0.6°C
July: +0.6°C
Aug: +0.6°C
Sep: +0.7°C
Oct: +0.9°C
Nov: +1.2°C


and La Nina on 2 occasions

1988
Jun: -1.2°C
Jul: -1.2°C
Aug: -1.1°C
Sep: -1.3°C
Oct: -1.6°C
Nov: -1.9°C

2000
Jun: -0.6°C
Jul: -0.4°C
Aug: -0.3°C
Sep: -0.4°C
Oct: -0.5°C
Nov: -0.7°C
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Weatherfreak000

#14 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Fri Feb 17, 2006 9:34 pm

AussieMark wrote:also of note this name list has happened during a El Nino on 2 occasions

1982
June: +0.7°C
July: +0.8°C
Aug: +1.0°C
Sep: +1.5°C
Oct: +1.9°C
Nov: +2.2°C

1994
June: +0.6°C
July: +0.6°C
Aug: +0.6°C
Sep: +0.7°C
Oct: +0.9°C
Nov: +1.2°C


and La Nina on 2 occasions

1988
Jun: -1.2°C
Jul: -1.2°C
Aug: -1.1°C
Sep: -1.3°C
Oct: -1.6°C
Nov: -1.9°C

2000
Jun: -0.6°C
Jul: -0.4°C
Aug: -0.3°C
Sep: -0.4°C
Oct: -0.5°C
Nov: -0.7°C




Awesome info....here i'll post the 2000 and 1988 years...


Image

Image




I can see some similarities in these years....


-Two Louisana strikes in 1988 and none in 2000. I think it may be safe to say here we could see unfortunately some significant threat to LA in the coming season.

-Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, Second Strongest Hurricane on record in the ATL.

-6 Major Hurricanes (Not even collectively 2006)

-Significantly low number of storms (despite the La Nina status)

-Low number of East Coast strikes.

-No Texas strikes but a strong Mexico/Yucutan Season.

-Lots and lots of fishes

-No significant US Landfalls.
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#15 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Fri Feb 17, 2006 9:48 pm

Indeed. I think this list will get A LOT MORE USE this time around, than in the El Nino years :lol:
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