MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0152
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0559 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN/SCNTRL LWR MI...ERN/SRN IND...NWRN/WCNTRL OH
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 35...
   
   VALID 162359Z - 170100Z
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER SWRN LWR MI WITH A STRONG COLD
   FRONT SWWD INTO ECNTRL IL.  WARM SECTOR HAS BEEN EXPANDING NWD INTO
   SRN LWR MI LATE THIS AFTN ON VERY STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
   SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 50S JUST AHEAD OF THE
   COLD FRONT FROM ERN IND AND WRN OH NWD INTO SERN LWR MI BENEATH
   H5-H7 LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 DEGREES C/KM...CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK
   BUOYANCY.
   
   RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT A NARROW...LOW-TOPPED LINE OF TSTMS HAS
   EVOLVED ACROSS SCNTRL LWR MI AND NCNTRL IND CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW.
   MEAN WIND COMPONENTS WITH RESPECT TO THE LINE HAVE BACKED AHEAD OF
   THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM...MAKING LINEAR SEGMENTS THE DOMINANT
   MODE. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR EMBEDDED BRIEF SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES...IF AN UPDRAFT CAN BECOME SUFFICIENTLY STRONG.  THESE
   CELLS WILL TEND TO EVOLVE INTO BOW ECHOES...LOCALLY ACCELERATING THE
   LINE AND PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE OR PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO.
   
   A WW MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM FROM TORNADO WATCH 35 TO INCLUDE SERN
   LWR MI.  FARTHER S...PROSPECTS FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE WEATHER ARE
   PROBLEMATIC.  UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER CNTRL IND DOES NOT LOOK
   TERRIBLY ORGANIZED...PROBABLY SINCE IT IS SOUTH OF THE MAIN LARGE
   SCALE ASCENT AND NORTH OF BETTER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  IF TSTMS DO
   NOT SHOW SIGNS OF MORE ORGANIZATION...A WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED ACROSS
   WRN OH OR EXTREME ERN IND.
   
   ..RACY.. 02/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...ILX...
   
   40218721 41818586 42738504 43138372 43188279 42888251
   42798258 41628305 40898375 39628437 38818503 38758576
   38648717 38848784

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0153
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0735 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN AR...EXTREME NWRN MS...MO BOOTHEEL AND
   WRN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 170135Z - 170300Z
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE
   STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS PASSING N INTO THE OH VLY AND GRTLKS
   EARLY THIS EVENING.  PRIMARY LLJ AXIS IS TRANSLATING NWD OUT OF THE
   MID-SOUTH IN TANDEM...WITH A DECREASE IN OVERALL MASS CONVERGENCE
   ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 
   
   TSTMS THAT INITIATED UPSTREAM EARLIER IN THE DAY HAVE BEEN STRONGEST
   ACROSS NERN AR NWD...WHERE STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
   JUXTAPOSED WITH STRONGER ASCENT.  THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE BEST
   CHANCE TO MAINTAIN CHARACTER INTO WRN TN THROUGH MID-EVENING.
   MEMPHIS VWP STILL SHOWS A STRONGLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL PROFILE AND A
   TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. 
   
   FARTHER SW...STORMS ARE STRUGGLING AGAINST HIGHER CINH AND LESS MASS
   CONVERGENCE.  IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREATS ARE DECREASING ACROSS AT
   LEAST ACROSS SRN AR.
   
   ..RACY.. 02/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SHV...
   
   33819429 36499055 36488928 36488824 35818852 34239078
   34059264

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0154
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0804 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IND...NWRN/WRN KY...EXTREME SRN IL AND WRN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 170204Z - 170330Z
   
   STRONGEST PRESSURE FALL AXIS IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE NWD INTO
   THE MIDWEST AND GRTLKS REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET CORE SHIFTS
   NEWD ACROSS IND.  RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO
   SUPPORT BANDS OF CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STRONG
   COLD FRONT.  STRONGER INSTABILITY IS NOT PHASED WELL WITH THE
   STRONGEST ASCENT...WITH THE STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONFINED
   TO AREAS FROM SRN IND SWWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH. NONETHELESS...STRONG
   FORCING FOR ASCENT AND RAPID COOLING IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE WILL
   LIKELY MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR TSTMS ACROSS ERN IND AND WRN/NWRN KY
   THROUGH THE EVENING. 
   
   VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
   EMBEDDED WITHIN SHORT LINE SEGMENTS THROUGH MID-EVENING WITH
   DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO ACROSS ERN/SRN IND AND FAR W
   KY.  FARTHER E...LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
   ADVECT AROUND 50 DEGREE F DEW POINTS NWD INTO NWRN KY/WRN OH.
   BUT...EVEN WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COOLING
   COLUMN ALOFT...THE 00Z WILMINGTON OH SOUNDING BECOMES ONLY WEAKLY
   UNSTABLE.  OVERALL...THE SEVERE THREATS APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING.
   
   ..RACY.. 02/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...
   
   40098621 41638497 41188388 40028409 39428403 38568466
   37378665 37028737 36788819 36888903 37278925 38458738

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0155
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0913 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...SRN VT...SRN NH...WRN MA...WRN CT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 171513Z - 171715Z
   
   ...DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY NARROW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS...
   
   STRONG PRESSURE RISES ARE NOTED ACROSS UPSTATE NY IN THE WAKE OF
   FAST MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED SEVERAL
   BOW-TYPE STRUCTURES IN THE HUDSON VALLEY THAT ARE RACING EWD IN
   EXCESS OF 50KT.  THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE HIGHER
   ELEVATION REGION OF SRN MA INTO WRN CT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NARROW
   ZONE OF CLEARING/HEATING OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE LINE.  LIGHTNING
   SHOULD DECREASE WITH THIS ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM...ALTHOUGH STRONG
   WINDS MAY CONTINUE IN A BROAD SENSE BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT.  WW NOT
   ANTICIPATED DUE TO LIMITED AREAL EXTENT/TIME OF EXPECTED SEVERE
   THREAT.
   
   ..DARROW.. 02/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...
   
   41537476 43767297 43357188 41407329

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0156
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1243 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 171843Z - 172345Z
   
   SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
   EVENING HOURS IN LAKE-EFFECT BANDS ALONG THE CNTRL AND ERN UPPER
   PENINSULA OF MI. RATES WILL LIKELY REACH 1 IN/HR WITH LOCAL RATES
   POSSIBLY UP TO 2 IN/HR TOWARDS EVENING.
   
   ONGOING MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE-INDUCED SNOWFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO
   FOCUS LATER TODAY WITH MORE ORGANIZED BANDING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
   MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WAVE WILL SLIDE EAST
   THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND HELP STRENGTHEN MID-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ACROSS SRN LAKE SUPERIOR. BOTH
   RUC/NAM INDICATE THE 700 TO 600 MB MAXIMUM CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC
   LIFT ZONE TO SHIFT ESE FROM THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO THE ERN UPPER
   PENINSULA BY 00Z.
   
   CURRENT MESOANALYSIS/VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE
   CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ALONG SRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A WEAK MESOLOW
   JUST E OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. RUC/NAM INDICATE THIS BOUNDARY
   SHIFTING SLOWLY SWD WITH TIME AND INCREASING CURVATURE IN THE
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL HELP SHIFT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NW
   PROVIDING GREATER FETCH ALONG THE SRN LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. EVEN
   THOUGH DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL DUE TO THE VERY COLD
   ARCTIC AIRMASS...HIGH SNOW RATIOS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE PERIODS OF
   MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW ESPECIALLY FROM NRN MARQUETTE TO
   CHIPPEWA COUNTIES.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 02/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...
   
   47088849 47498789 46828455 46038416 45938545 46258724

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0157
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0913 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/ECNTRL OK...NRN/CNTRL AR...EXTREME SRN
   MO...FAR W KY...WRN TN AND EXTREME NWRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 180313Z - 180915Z
   
   WINTER PCPN WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ACROSS ERN OK...SRN MO AND
   NRN/CNTRL AR THROUGH 06Z...THEN FARTHER EWD INTO THE LWR OH
   VLY/MID-SOUTH BETWEEN 06-09Z. 
   
   WEAK H5 WAVE WAS ANALYZED OVER OK AT 00Z AND WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE
   EWD INTO THE LWR OH VLY LATER TONIGHT. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
   CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE WAVE THROUGH THE
   NIGHT...RESULTING IN INCREASING H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC
   LIFT. GPS PWAT VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH ACROSS
   SRN AR/OK SINCE LATE AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING
   ASCENT...THERE ARE STRONG INDICATIONS THAT PCPN RATES WILL INCREASE
   SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH LATE EVENING.
   
   00Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM NOSE AROUND H85 AS FAR N AS
   CNTRL OK AND NRN AR THAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE UPPER
   WAVE PASSES BY LATER TONIGHT.  00Z OBSERVATIONS ARE SOMEWHAT WARMER
   THAN RECENT RUC GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED.  GIVEN SOME COOLING OF THE
   COLUMN VIA WET BULB PROCESSES...A PHASE CHANGE FROM SLEET TO SNOW
   SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS EXTREME NERN OK...SRN MO AND EXTREME NRN AR
   THROUGH 06Z. HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH 1 INCH FOR A 1-3
   HOUR PERIOD.
   
   TO THE SOUTH...THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SWD
   WITH TIME AS THE LOWER PART OF THE COLUMN MOISTENS.  THIS COMBINED
   WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 3 DEGREES C WITHIN THE WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL
   SUPPORT LIQUID RAIN MIXING WITH/CHANGING TO SLEET. LOCALLY HEAVY
   SLEET COULD OCCUR ACROSS ECNTRL OK EWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NRN
   AR.
   
   FARTHER S...00Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE OF AROUND
   6 DEGREES C JUST BELOW H7.  AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
   APPROACH 32 DEGREES F LATER TONIGHT...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING
   RAIN SOUTH OF A KFSM-KBVX-NEAR KMEM LINE.  HOURLY RATES WILL BE
   0.05-0.10 INCH.
   
   PCPN WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD EAST OF THE MS RVR...ESPECIALLY AFTER
   06Z.  MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED N OF THE OH RVR...WITH SLEET ACROSS
   WRN TN N OF KMEM.  MAINLY FREEZING RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED BY 12Z
   ACROSS NWRN MS AND WRN TN S OF KMEM.
   
   ..RACY.. 02/18/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...
   
   36219597 36719463 36779360 36779144 36769029 36808876
   36508818 36038816 35548855 34758972 34509094 34889279
   35089428 35409582

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0158
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0526 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN AR...NRN MS...NRN AL...TN...MO
   BOOT-HEEL...EXTREME NWRN GA...EXTREME SRN KY.
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 181126Z - 181715Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE DIRECTION
   
   MIX OF WINTER PRECIP WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS AR...SERN MO...SRN
   KY AND TN...WHILE SHIFTING/EXPANDING SWD INTO AREAS OF MS/AL/NWRN GA
   WHERE SFC TEMPS STILL WERE ABOVE FREEZING AS OF 1030Z. FREEZING
   RAIN WITH .05-.10 INCH/HR RATES SHOULD DEVELOP FROM N-CENTRAL MS EWD
   ACROSS NRN AL...EXTREME NWRN GA AND PORTIONS SERN TN AS FREEZING
   LINE SHIFTS SWD THROUGH THIS AREA...IN RESPONSE TO COMBINATION OF
   BOUNDARY LAYER CAA AND WET BULB COOLING FROM PRECIP EVAPORATION NEAR
   SFC. 
   
   PRECIP PHASE WILL GRADATE TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX THEN TO SNOW
   WITH NWD EXTENT...WHILE LOW LEVEL COOLING DEEPENS AND SHIFTS SWD.
   THIS WILL LEAD TO ONGOING PLUME OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FROM
   W-CENTRAL AR TO MID TN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH TIME.  SNOW
   ACCUMULATIONS 1.5 INCH/HOUR SHOULD OCCUR IN MANY
   AREAS...LOCALLY/BRIEFLY EXCEEDING 2 INCH/HOUR IN HEAVIER BURSTS.
   MORE SPOTTY/LIGHT/INTERMITTENT PRECIP MIX IS EXPECTED WSWWD FROM
   THIS AREA ACROSS ARKLATEX INTO CENTRAL TX.
   
   THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED WITHIN
   ELONGATED...WSW-ENE ORIENTED CONVEYOR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
   TRANSPORT AND WAA -- ATOP COOLING/POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER.
   MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW 5-7 KFT DEEP SUPERFREEZING
   LAYER IN LOW-MIDLEVELS ATOP FCST FREEZING RAIN ZONE.  THIS LAYER
   WILL BECOME SHALLOWER AND MORE ELEVATED WITH NWD EXTENT WHERE SLEET
   IS FCST...THEN VANISH OVER FCST SNOW SWATH.  ELEVATED MUCAPES UNDER
   100 J/KG -- ROOTED NEAR 700 MB -- WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SERN AR TO
   NRN AL AND SWRN/MID TN.  THIS INDICATES OCCASIONAL CONVECTIVE BURSTS
   WILL LOCALLY BOOST PRECIP RATES FOR SHORT PERIODS.  LIFT WILL BE
   MAINTAINED IN ENVIRONMENT OF 700-750 MB FRONTOGENESIS...AXIS OF
   WHICH WILL SHIFT ESEWD ACROSS NRN MS/AL WITH TIME BEFORE WEAKENING
   AROUND MID-DAY.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 02/18/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...
   
   35699213 36089172 36488942 36668768 36838505 36018422
   35798391 35038467 34548568 33788783 33339036 34189194
   34769235 35239230

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0159
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1244 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX/NCNTRL TX/OK
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 190644Z - 191245Z
   
   WINTER PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SLEET AND FREEZING
   DRIZZLE...WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS NW TX THROUGH NCNTRL TX AND OK.
   
   LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
   CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FROM WEST OF LUBBOCK TX TO NEAR MCALESTER OK.
   CLOSE EXAMINATION OF WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST POSSIBLE IMPULSES
   WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS NCNTRL NM WITH A STRONGER WAVE
   FROM BAJA INTO NRN SONORA. AT ANY RATE...COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN IR
   IMAGERY ARE INDICATIVE OF THE INCREASE IN VERTICAL MOTION.
   
   THE GFS IS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL MODEL WHICH HAS PRECIPITATION
   BREAKING OUT OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...IT HAS SHOWN A CONSISTENT
   SIGNAL FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SUGGESTING WINTER PCPN FOR THIS
   TIME PERIOD AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. ITS 00Z QPF SOLN TONIGHT SUGGESTS
   THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE INITIALLY ACROSS NW TX...BEFORE
   SPREADING INTO CNTRL/SRN OK BETWEEN 09-12Z /ALTHOUGH LIGHT
   PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP BEFORE THAT TIME/.
   
   PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL MAINLY BE A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
   OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. DRY AIR NOTED ABOVE 650 MB ON THE OUN SOUNDING
   WILL INHIBIT DENDRITIC PROCESSES FROM OCCURRING UNTIL ADDITIONAL
   MOISTENING OCCURS. FARTHER WEST ACROSS NW TX...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
   SUPPORTS MAINLY SNOW OR SLEET INITIALLY...WHICH AGREES WITH PTYPE
   ALGORITHMS FROM THE GFS/NAM. HOWEVER WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION
   OVERNIGHT...PCPN MAY CHANGE OVER TO SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE/FZ
   RAIN ACROSS NW TX /LUBBOCK AREA/. ACROSS NCNTRL TX...PCPN WILL
   MAINLY BE FZRA/FZDZ DUE TO THE STRONG INVERSION NOTED ON 00Z FWD
   SOUNDING ABOVE 850 MB.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 02/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   32159867 32960288 33630302 35310245 36199880 36109593
   35519459 32659463

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0160
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 AM CST MON FEB 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE TX/SRN AR/NRN LA/NRN MS/NRN AL/NW GA
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
   
   VALID 200630Z - 201230Z
   
   ...FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS A
   LARGE PORTION OF THE GULF COAST STATES. OVERRUNNING PCPN ATOP ARCTIC
   AIRMASS PRESENTS IDEAL SETUP FOR PROLONGED FZRA EVENT...
   
   SUBTROPICAL MOIST CONVEYOR EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDS WEST
   TO BAJA. SUBTLE IMPULSES RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW ARE PROVIDING
   ENOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE VERTICAL MOTION FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN. IN
   ADDITION...850 MB EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS TIGHT FRONTAL
   ZONE ACROSS NE TX/NRN LA/NRN GA. STRONG 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET /AS
   OBSERVED BY AREA VWP DATA/ WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE OVER THE
   FRONT. SFC FREEZING LINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR LFK ACROSS CNTRL LA AND
   CNTRL MS JUST NORTH OF JAN INTO NRN AL AND EXTREME NW GA.
   
   EVENING SOUNDINGS FROM JAN AND SHV DEPICT A DEEP WARM LAYER CENTERED
   AROUND 850MB WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. THIS STRONG
   INVERSION WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO PCPN
   TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN GIVEN SUBFREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES. THE
   SRN EXTENT OF THE FZRA WILL LIKELY BE FROM JUST SOUTH OF FORT POLK
   LA TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF JACKSON MS TO BIRMINGHAM AL. SFC WET
   BULB TEMPS ARE AT OR NEAR FREEZING IN AREAS NORTH OF THIS LINE...SO
   EVAPORATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO FALL TO 32F.
   
   HOURLY PCPN RATES SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...RANGING FROM AROUND
   0.01 TO 0.05 INCHES PER HOUR. HOWEVER...ICING PROBLEMS WILL OCCUR
   ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
   ADDITIONALLY...LIGHT PCPN WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS WHICH WILL
   ALLOW SOME ICE ACCUMULATION.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 02/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...
   
   30979359 32409485 34349377 34879152 35068893 34878415
   33858433 32548842 31219240

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0161
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0639 AM CST MON FEB 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN AR...NRN LA...W-CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL
   MS...N-CENTRAL AL.
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
   
   VALID 201239Z - 201815Z
   
   FREEZING MIST/DRIZZLE AND ASSOCIATED HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE VIRTUALLY
   ANYWHERE BETWEEN NWRN TX/SWRN OK REGION AND EXTREME NRN GA/SERN
   TN...HOWEVER GREATEST PROBABILITY OF CRITERIA RATES AT LEAST .05
   INCH/3-HOUR WILL REMAIN OVER SRN AR...NRN LA...N-CENTRAL MS AND
   N-CENTRAL AL BEFORE 18Z.
   
   12Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FREEZING LINE ROUGHLY ALONG CHA...15 N
   TCL...20 SSW CBM...50 NNE HEZ...POE...LFK.  OBSERVED AND MODIFIED
   12Z RAOBS FROM SHV-JAN...AS WELL AS FCST RUC SOUNDINGS OVER
   SUBFREEZING SFC LOCATIONS...SHOW DEEP SUPERFREEZING LAYER ABOVE
   SHALLOW NEAR-SFC ZONE OF MARGINALLY FREEZING TEMPERATURES.  FURTHER
   WET BULB COOLING OF SFC AIR IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN SATURATED BOUNDARY
   LAYER CONDITIONS.  IN FACT...DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HEAT BY LIQUID
   PRECIP...FROM WARMER LAYER ALOFT...SHOULD RESULT IN NWD DRIFT OF
   FREEZING LINE. SERIES OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT -- EMBEDDED
   WITHIN NEARLY ZONAL JET CORE -- WILL AID IN MAINTAINING ELONGATED
   CONVEYOR OF ASCENT THROUGH REMAINDER FORENOON HOURS...STRONGEST FROM
   NEAR MS RIVER EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AL.  THEREAFTER...RUC AND SREF
   PROGS INDICATE FORCING WILL WEAKEN...AND FREEZING LINE WILL DRIFT
   NWD MORE.  THIS WILL CAUSE A CHANGE TO COLD RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM
   S-N...WHEREVER PRECIP STILL LINGERS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 02/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...
   
   32439054 31949149 31299261 31069313 31169329 31419349
   32589369 33219309 33389236 34228878 34598548 33718689
   33368831 32788976

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0162
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1239 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT/NRN AND CNTRL ND
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 240639Z - 241130Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR STATE IN DISCUSSION
   
   ...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS
   BANDED SNOWFALL ORGANIZES OVERNIGHT FROM NERN MT THROUGH NRN ND.
   SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 IN/HR ARE LIKELY...
   
   STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE FORECAST
   OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE
   NRN BITTERROOT MTNS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK FROM AROUND
   JDN TO BETWEEN DIK/BIS BY 12Z. RUC/NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
   WITH INCREASING THE 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS TO THE NORTH OF THIS
   LOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY FALL ALONG AND JUST
   NORTH OF A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION AXIS CENTERED AROUND 800 MB. THIS
   AXIS WILL MOST LIKELY RUN FROM SDY TO N60 TO BETWEEN DVL/JMS.
   ALTHOUGH 800-700 MB MOISTURE WAS LACKING IN 00Z RAP/BIS/ABR
   SOUNDINGS...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
   HELP SATURATE THE DENDRITIC LAYER DOWNSTREAM AS EVIDENCED BY
   REGIONAL RADAR AND RECENT SNOWFALL OBS IN BIS. BOTH RUC AND NAM
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RATHER LARGE DENDRITIC LAYER EXCEEDING
   100 MB...ACROSS NERN ND TOWARDS 12Z. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED
   MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW RATES AS THE SURFACE LOW/SHORTWAVE TRANSLATE
   EAST.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 02/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...GGW...
   
   48980691 49000225 49000225 48990007 48999729 46869773
   46910153 47400696

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0163
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0600 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN...NRN WI AND THE WRN UPPER MI
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 241200Z - 241800Z
   
   BANDS OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP W-E ACROSS NRN MN INTO NRN WI AND WRN
   UPPER MI THROUGH 18Z.  HEAVIEST SNOW /HOURLY RATES 1-1.5 INCHES/
   WILL FALL 40-50 MILES N-S OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM 30W KIMT-35SW
   KDLH-KFAR. 
   
   12Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER SWRN ND WITH A WARM FRONT SEWD
   INTO ERN SD.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE SD/ND
   BORDER THIS MORNING...THEN INTO SWRN MN BY 18Z.  LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
   CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE LOW...ACTING TO TIGHTEN THE
   ALREADY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE.  SHORT TERM MODELS ALL AGREE THAT
   H85-H7 FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BECOME QUITE INTENSE ACROSS NRN
   MN...NRN WI AND WRN UPPER MI THROUGH 18Z. 
   
   THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL LIKELY BE DEEPER ACROSS NRN PARTS OF
   MN/WI PER RECENT SREF AND 06Z ETA.  THIS IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG
   FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW.  RECENT RADAR
   IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS THIS SCENARIO UPSTREAM ACROSS THE RED RVR VLY
   WITH A 30-35 DBZ SNOWBAND VCNTY KFAR.
   
   AFTER THE COLUMN BECOMES SUFFICIENTLY MOIST...THE HEAVIER BANDS OF
   SNOW WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP MORE QUICKLY THAN THE 06Z ETA SOLUTIONS.
   THIS SUGGESTS PERHAPS AN EARLIER TIMING DOWNSTREAM.  CURRENT
   EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR HEAVIER SNOW TO DEVELOP INTO THE NCNTRL-NERN MN
   AREA BY 16Z...AND INTO NRN WI AND WRN UPPER MI NEAR/JUST AFTER 18Z.
   GIVEN 15-20:1 RATIOS...SNOWFALL RATES COULD EXCEED 1-1.5 INCHES PER
   HOUR IN THE STRONGEST BANDS.
   
   ..RACY.. 02/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...
   
   47139659 47599561 47589381 47319235 46989106 46668946
   46348880 45748890 45468926 45368982 45399084 45629221
   45859360 46079485 46319600 46679645

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0164
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1212 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN...NRN WI...SRN/WRN U.P. OF MI/NRN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 241812Z - 250015Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NRN MN/NWRN WI AND
   PORTIONS OF WRN LOWER MI THROUGH 21Z. FURTHER EAST...A NARROW
   ...40-50 MILES WIDE...BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ESEWD INTO
   NERN WI...SWRN/SCENTRAL U.P OF MI AND NRN LOWER MI BETWEEN 20-00Z.
   THE AXIS OF THIS HEAVY SNOW BAND SHOULD FALL ROUGHLY FROM IMT TO 35
   S OF PLN.  HRLY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 IN WILL BE LIKELY.
   
   17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD FROM A
   SURFACE LOW OVER NERN SD INTO SRN WI. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WAA NORTH
   OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN SATURATION OF LOW-MID LEVELS
   OVER SRN U.P OF MI/NRN LOWER MI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
   STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER
   /COINCIDENT WITH DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH/ WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF HEAVY
   SNOW ESEWD AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED UPPER VORT MAX INTO NERN WI...THE SRN
   U.P OF MI/NRN LOWER MI BETWEEN 20-00Z. IN ADDITION TO THE
   AFOREMENTIONED STRONG VERTICAL MOTION...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   OF 7-7.5 DEG C/KM WILL DEVELOP EWD AND SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
   ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOWFALL RATES. DESPITE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
   /BELOW 850 MB/ AS EVIDENT BY SURFACE OBS OVER NERN WI/SRN U.P OF MI
   AND NRN LOWER MI...HEAVY SNOWFALL DEVELOPMENT IN THE MID-LEVELS JUST
   ABOVE THIS LAYER /PER RECENT RADAR REFLECTIVELY/ SHOULD AID IN A
   SATURATION AND SURFACE HVY SNOWFALL DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE
   AFTERNOON.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 02/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...DLH...
   
   47009440 47429382 47309276 46839030 46128718 45548463
   45068442 44558484 44528564 44598651 44878755 45128846
   45508974 46179231 46489375 46729414

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0165
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1253 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW/S CNTRL NM...EXTREME SE AZ
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 241853Z - 242030Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME MAY BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL BY/SHORTLY AFTER
   21Z.
   
   INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO APPEARS
   MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   ASSOCIATED WITH ONSET OF MID-LEVEL COOLING ACCOMPANYING APPROACH OF
   SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  OROGRAPHY MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO
   DEVELOPMENT...BUT ACTIVITY IS STILL LIKELY MOSTLY ROOTED ABOVE THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER...IN LAYER MOISTENING WITH BROADER SCALE ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT.
   
   HOWEVER...DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING
   AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ROOTED IN MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER WITH CAPE APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 500 J/KG.  AS THIS
   OCCURS...POSSIBLY BY AROUND 21Z NEAR AND WEST OF LAS CRUCES/EL
   PASO...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG SURFACE GUSTS WILL INCREASE IN
   THE VICINITY OF THE STORMS.  MODERATE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL
   FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT
   ROTATION...WHICH MAY ENHANCE RISK FOR HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY
   EXCEEDING SEVERE CRITERIA.
   
   ..KERR.. 02/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...
   
   31360909 32140931 32940843 32820739 32400682 32090660
   31830647 31710646

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0166
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0638 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR W TX/SRN NM
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 250038Z - 250245Z
   
   THREAT FOR HAIL/A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
   COUPLE OF HOURS.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO LIMITED TEMPORAL AND
   AREAL THREAT.
   
   EVENING EPZ /EL PASO TX/ RAOB REVEALS STEEP LAPSE RATES...AT THE
   LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD FROM NWRN
   MEXICO.  THIS PROFILE CONFIRMS MODEL/OA FIELDS...NOW SHOWING
   MEAN-LAYER CAPE AOB 500 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION. 
   
   THIS RAOB AND EL PASO TX WSR-88D VWP ALSO DEPICT 50 TO 60 KT WSWLY
   MID-LEVEL FLOW...CONTRIBUTING TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES SUFFICIENT
   FOR SUPERCELLS.  WITH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SOMEWHAT WEAK...MAIN THREAT
   APPEARS TO BE HAIL -- PARTICULARLY AS COOLING ALOFT CONTINUES TO
   SPREAD EWD AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH.  THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY
   THIS EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF LOW-LEVEL STABILIZATION.
   
   ..GOSS.. 02/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
   
   32140724 32810671 33150553 32840388 31570375 30710334
   30190383 30180469 30620493 31360598 31390609 31730638
   31760730

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0167
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0717 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 250117Z - 250515Z
   
   A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES AT OR ABOVE 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL
   CONTINUE TO AFFECT NRN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MI THROUGH
   04 UTC. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THEREAFTER AS
   FORCING WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NEWD OVER LAKE HURON AND SRN ONTARIO.
   
   AT 0030 UTC...RADAR LOOPS CONTINUED TO SHOW A WELL DEVELOPED 30 TO
   40 MILE WIDE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXTENDING FROM ABOUT
   CHARLEVOIX COUNTY EWD TO ABOUT OGEMAW COUNTY IN NRN LOWER MI.
   LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN REGION OF DEEP
   SATURATION WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH CONDITIONS SUGGESTS THAT
   HEAVY SNOW BAND WILL PERSIST OVER NRN LOWER MI THROUGH 04 UTC.
   LATEST RUC PREDICTION THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTS FRONTOGENETICAL
   FORCING/STRONG ASCENT INTO SRN ONTARIO THEREAFTER. ONGOING SNOW
   RATES AT OR ABOVE 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04 UTC AND
   THEN DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 04 AND 06 UTC.
   
   ..BRIGHT.. 02/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...
   
   45578520 45418430 44958336 44418324 43868238 43158244
   43568325 44328463 44608572 45018597

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0168
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1104 AM CST SAT FEB 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA..MS...AL...AND THE FL PNHDL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 251704Z - 251830Z
   
   THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS/HAIL WILL EXIST IN STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING
   ALONG CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RISK
   OF ACTIVITY EXCEEDING SEVERE CRITERIA SEEMS LOW OR LIKELY TO REMAIN
   VERY ISOLATED.
   
   WEAK WAVE ALONG SURFACE FRONT IS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
   NEW ORLEANS/LAKE PONCHARTRAIN AREA.  FEATURE APPEARS TO BE
   ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL STREAM...WHICH
   WILL PROGRESS MORE RAPIDLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF
   COAST THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS
   STILL UPSTREAM...ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS...AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ABOVE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WHICH TRAILS SURFACE
   WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. 
   
   NARROW EAST-WEST BAND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO
   CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THROUGH
   THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A FEW OF THE UPDRAFTS...BASED MOSTLY ABOVE
   NEAR SURFACE INVERSION LAYER...COULD BECOME FAIRLY VIGOROUS...WITH
   MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG...PERHAPS LOCALLY IN EXCESS
   OF 1000 J/KG.  IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...HAIL COULD BRIEFLY
   APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE CRITERIA IN STRONGEST STORMS.  INVERSION
   LAYER MAY BE SHALLOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED
   DOWNBURST...MAINLY NEAR/EAST OF SURFACE WAVE.
   
   ..KERR.. 02/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
   
   29749320 30629233 30918986 31038877 31108757 31038644
   30738524 30358473 29648463

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0169
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1145 AM CST SAT FEB 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NY...NRN AND CENTRAL  VT/NH...SWRN ME
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 251745Z - 252345Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM NRN NY INTO NRN/CENTRAL VT/NH AND
   SWRN ME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HRLY SNOWFALL RATES
   AROUND 1 INCH WILL BE LIKELY. THE TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
   ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE IN A 30-40 MILE WIDE ZONE CENTERED FROM ART
   TO 20 S OF MPV TO LCI TO PWM. HEAVY SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE OUT
   OF MOST THE AREA...EXCEPT SWRN ME...BY 00Z.
   
   LATEST IR/WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED VORT MAX OVER ERN LAKE
   ONTARIO WITH A DRY SLOT EXTENDING SWWD INTO WRN NY/PA. MID LEVEL
   FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED ALONG AND EAST OF
   THE VORT LOBE TRACK AND NORTH OF THE DRY SLOT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   THIS PLACES MOST OF NRN NY...NRN/CENTRAL VT/NH AND SWRN ME IN A
   FAVORABLE ZONE FOR ENHANCED LOW-MID LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION. RECENT
   SFC/RADAR OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THIS STRONG VERTICAL MOTION ALREADY
   DEVELOPING OVER NWRN NY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO
   NRN/CENTRAL VT/NH AND SWRN ME THROUGH 00Z. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
   STRONG VERTICAL MOTION ALONG WITH A DEEP LAYER /8-10 KFT/ OF
   DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH AND LOW SNOW-WATER EQUIVALENT RATIOS /20:1/
   DUE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS...WILL SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW WITH HRLY
   RATES AROUND 1 INCH IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 02/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
   
   44127012 44497103 44777433 44507563 44027604 43577574
   43467395 43337260 43197140 43487029

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0170
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1158 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL CA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 281758Z - 282000Z
   
   ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ACCOMPANIED WITH HAIL WILL BE LIKELY AS STORMS
   TRACK NEWD ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A STRONG VORTICITY MAX JUST OFF
   THE NRN CA COAST WITH A LOBE OF VORTICITY EXTENDING SWD INTO THE SAN
   FRANCISCO AREA SHOWN BY THE RUC. FOCUSED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF
   THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH WARMING SFC TEMPS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
   ARE CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION.
   AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...NEW STORM
   INITIATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS IN
   THE SAN FRANCISCO AREA WITH STORMS EXPANDING SWD ALONG THE THERMAL
   AXIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 88D VWPS IN THE AREA SHOW STRONG VERTICAL
   SHEAR PROFILES WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE TO CONTINUE ISOLATED
   SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WILL
   BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS...HAIL WILL BE THE MOST
   LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 02/28/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HNX...STO...MTR...
   
   39252276 39692252 39762169 39422130 38102054 37332029
   37092095 37252159 38302225

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0171
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0236 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN UT...SE ID...FAR WRN WY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 282036Z - 282230Z
   
   STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS ACROSS NRN UT...SE ID AND FAR WRN WY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
   MAY TAKE PLACE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN UT INTO ERN NV. THE
   STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
   HAIL.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC LOW NEAR THE GREAT SALT LAKE WITH
   A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW. A LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS
   EXTENDS ACROSS WRN UT NWD INTO THE SALT LAKE CITY AREA WHERE SFC
   DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 40S F. A LINE OF STORMS IS DEVELOPING ALONG
   THIS CORRIDOR AND STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS AS A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADS NNEWD ACROSS THE
   REGION EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS. ALTHOUGH
   SHEAR PROFILES ARE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   AND 88D VWPS SHOW WINDS ARE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND FORCING ALONG
   THE COLD FRONT SUGGESTS THE DOMINANT MODE WILL BE QUASI-LINEAR. THIS
   COMBINED WITH SFC TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEEDING 20 DEGREES
   F SHOULD MAKE WIND DAMAGE THE MOST VIABLE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
   HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 02/28/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...VEF...LKN...
   
   42731153 42631094 42131043 41331035 40261117 39131255
   38321405 38151516 38451592 39041588 39671505 40421361
   41921226 42451187