southern plains freezing rain/sleet thread

[TrekkerCC]

personally, I think well see about 1/10th to 1/4th of an inch tonite and i think that winter weather advisory will get turned into a winter storm warning tomorrow sometime as the bulk of the moisture mves into the area

I have to say I'm on the pessimistic side. I've seen too many of these events in the past where models/forecasters jump an event beforehand and it has busted. NAM has trended on temps on the warm side on the model runs I seen (from yesterday's and today's). On the NAM, GFS, UKMET forecasting sounding at 12z tomorrow...we aren't even freezing at the surface at Love Field -- through close (through if precip does start -- it likely be lower than what is forecasted by the models -- and KDAL is one of the more warmer spots in he metroplex). Temperatures have not dropped today as expected, but in many places have gotten into the 40's. If this event were to coat ice by tomorrow morning, I would be ecstatic. I have a Saturday class that would be cancelled, but I just feel this might not be as big as people expect. The model QRF from most models (aside from GFS) are not very impressive as they were earlier. NAM hit the ice storm last time, and it is not showing much for this event. As an amateur, my weather prediction is that the winter weather advisory will be continued Saturday and Sunday (and not be upgraded to a warning). Our area might get a light coating of ice that might delay or close Monday schools/universities, and that is about it.

-TrekkerCC

(edited to add a word)

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like you guys in Dallas may be about to see a little wintry weather up your way within the next few hours..

http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/Lo ... odnav=none

[jasons2k]

According to NWS Abilene most of it isn't reaching the ground.

Cheezy, I know how you feel. I lived in DFW for almost 20 years and it seemed like the only time we got any real winter weather were the times it wasn't really predicted and snuck in at the last minute. Usually the ones predicted 2 or 3 days before the event busted. It's very tricky. That line from Stephenville to Denton to Paris seems to get you every time.

[plainsman]

guys the wintry precip maps are really starting to light up.. i still think its going to be a complete mess for the DFW area west Texas and Northeast texas as well as central texas... the temps are going to be plenty cold!!! still low dewpoints.. evaporational cooling will bring the temperatures well below freezing! to the mid to upper 20s tomorrow morning its going to be a complete icy mess.... and its only going to get worse sat. night into sunday morning.. gboudx i dont know about an inch of ice but i think definetly a half inch of ice... well see tomorrow how this winter situation is ....

[Extremeweatherguy]

guys the wintry precip maps are really starting to light up.. i still think its going to be a complete mess for the DFW area west Texas and Northeast texas as well as central texas... the temps are going to be plenty cold!!! still low dewpoints.. evaporational cooling will bring the temperatures well below freezing! to the mid to upper 20s tomorrow morning its going to be a complete icy mess.... and its only going to get worse sat. night into sunday morning.. gboudx i dont know about an inch of ice but i think definetly a half inch of ice... well see tomorrow how this winter situation is ....

Yeah the latest radar looks like it is getting quite active...and even if the precip. is not reaching the ground right now..it should later tonight. There is a chance that winter storm warnings may be issued tomorrow for you guys.

[plainsman]

just checked current conditions. and decatur texas 30 minutes northwest of fort worth is 35 degrees with moderate snow falling according to accuweather... its coming to DFW soon...

[aggiecutter]

Temperatures won't be problem in Dallas, especially with a dewpoint of 19. However, according to the latest model runs, it looks like moisture will be somewhat limited. If the moisture output of the models are right, then dallas is probably in just for a coating of ice. The prospects for a major ice storm look to be east and north of Paris to Atlanta Texas line as there will be ample moisture available in those areas to cause significant to heavy accumulations of ice.

[plainsman]

i disagree aggiecutter.. cisco and ranger like an hour west of fort worth have already started reporting freezing rain and sleet and decatur like 30 minutes north of fort worth has reported moderate snow and ice in the last hour or 2.. oklahoma city has been reporting freezing rain for like 2 hours.. the atmosphere is plenty moist enough and dallas and north central texas will get wintry precip just as bad as texarcana and north east texas will.. the atmosphere is just starting to moisten up.. look at all that moisture and wintry precip in central oklahoma if.. if its moist enough there its definetly moist enough in north texas, ya think? if anything central oklahoma would be drier then north texas... wintry precipitation is coming DFW's way then will hit texarcana

[Portastorm]

Personally, I'm growing skeptical here in the Austin (Central Texas area). Right now, at 8:45 pm, most of our air temps are in the low 40s now. Dewpoints are slowly climbing and I see little evidence of much evaporative cooling. I suspect we'll be a bit too warm for any freezing stuff.

The Hill Country may see a slight coating but I'm really thinking things will be ok here in Austin.

[gboudx]

plainsman, I checked the NWS site on Decatur and there was no report of snow. I think the Accuweather site probably uses radar returns or something else to determine the conditions. I'm skeptical too, but you probably figured that out. I may be the only one on these boards that doesn't want to see a single drop of freezing rain. But this wintry event will need to make a believer out of me.

Just because it's moist enough in COK doesn't mean it has to be here. That's a long ways from us.

[Portastorm]

plainsman, I checked the NWS site on Decatur and there was no report of snow. I think the Accuweather site probably uses radar returns or something else to determine the conditions. I'm skeptical too, but you probably figured that out. I may be the only one on these boards that doesn't want to see a single drop of freezing rain. But this wintry event will need to make a believer out of me.

Just because it's moist enough in COK doesn't mean it has to be here. That's a long ways from us.

Uh no, you are NOT the only one on the board who doesn't want to see freezing rain. I'm in that group as well. I hate freezing rain!

[aggiecutter]

portastorm, the mets around here are forcasting a secondary surge of true arctic air to come through later tonight. I imagine it's just dryer air. The dewpoint in dallas is 19, so I'd imagine that dryer air will eventually filter down into south texas, also.

The day we had the bad ice storm in December of 2000, the temperature got upto 47 degrees with dewpoints in the low 30's. I was very skeptical that anything would happen that night or the next day as the NWS issued an Winter Storm Watch that afternoon. However, they mentioned in their advisory that dryer air would be moving in, and it did. By midnight, dewpoints had dropped into the lower 20's. The parent temp at the onset of precip was 40. After several hours of rain, the temp dropped into the lower 30's and eventually bottomed out at 29-30. The temp hovered in that range for the next 36 hours while all the time we were receiving moderate to heavy freezing rain.

It'll be interesting to see the moisture output of the ETA and GFS here in an hour or so. Right now, I'm 39, maybe a bad omen, with a dewpoint of 25.

[Portastorm]

portastorm, the mets around here are forcasting a secondary surge of true arctic air to come through later tonight. I imagine it's just dryer air. The dewpoint in dallas is 19, so I'd imagine that dryer air will eventually filter down into south texas, also.

The day we had the bad ice storm in December of 2000, the temperature got upto 47 degrees with dewpoints in the low 30's. I was very skeptical that anything would happen that night or the next day as the NWS issued an Winter Storm Watch that afternoon. However, they mentioned in their advisory that dryer air would be moving in, and it did. By midnight, dewpoints had dropped into the lower 20's. The parent temp at the onset of precip was 40. After several hours of rain, the temp dropped into the lower 30's and eventually bottomed out at 29-30. The temp hovered in that range for the next 36 hours while all the time we were receiving moderate to heavy freezing rain.

It'll be interesting to see the moisture output of the ETA and GFS here in an hour or so. Right now, I'm 39, maybe a bad omen, with a dewpoint of 25.

Very interesting post! Thanks for the insights ... will be watching the dew points closely tonight ... as well as the QPF outputs from the models. Thanks again!

[aggiecutter]

The QPF output from the new model runs are basically the same as the 18z run. However, the exact track of the upper disturbances that will be coming through the next 48 hours will be hard to predict. After looking at the new model runs, I'm still sticking with my original predictions. EWG, mentioned on another thread that the local mets are predicting ice as far south as Houston tomorrow night.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The QPF output from the new model runs are basically the same as the 18z run. However, the exact track of the upper disturbances that will be coming through the next 48 hours will be hard to predict. After looking at the new model runs, I'm still sticking with my original predictions. EWG, mentioned on another thread that the local mets are predicting ice as far south as Houston tomorrow night.

yes...and the ETA precip. type maps are also showing the ice all the way south to Houston on Sunday morning:

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/m ... &domain=US

We could all be in for a decent winter weather event out of this.

[cheezyWXguy]

it looks like within the next hour it looks like we may be getting our first round of lite winter precip...i think we maybe looking at more snow than we thought...telling by the temps and humiditys it looks like it maybe a fat, wet snow...and maybe itll accumulate faster...plainsman, what r ur thots?

[aggiecutter]

Business is about to pickup in Texarkana. Precip is starting to breakout in NE Texas. I've been getting light rain for the past hour. During that time, the temp dropped from 39 to 37. I should hit the freezing mark in couple hours.

local radar...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php ... V&loop=yes

[Portastorm]

portastorm, the mets around here are forcasting a secondary surge of true arctic air to come through later tonight. I imagine it's just dryer air. The dewpoint in dallas is 19, so I'd imagine that dryer air will eventually filter down into south texas, also.

The day we had the bad ice storm in December of 2000, the temperature got upto 47 degrees with dewpoints in the low 30's. I was very skeptical that anything would happen that night or the next day as the NWS issued an Winter Storm Watch that afternoon. However, they mentioned in their advisory that dryer air would be moving in, and it did. By midnight, dewpoints had dropped into the lower 20's. The parent temp at the onset of precip was 40. After several hours of rain, the temp dropped into the lower 30's and eventually bottomed out at 29-30. The temp hovered in that range for the next 36 hours while all the time we were receiving moderate to heavy freezing rain.

It'll be interesting to see the moisture output of the ETA and GFS here in an hour or so. Right now, I'm 39, maybe a bad omen, with a dewpoint of 25.

Aggiecutter, a closer look at current dewpoints shows me you are on to something. All reporting stations immediately to the north and west of Austin have dewpoints in the low 20s to mid teens. If that is drier air advecting into our area, I suspect our dewpoints will be dropping shortly. This could get interesting after all ...

[aggiecutter]

portastorm, the dewpoint in Round Rock is 25. What part of Austin do you live.

RR link...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.p ... X&site=EWX

[jasons2k]

plainsman, I checked the NWS site on Decatur and there was no report of snow. I think the Accuweather site probably uses radar returns or something else to determine the conditions. I'm skeptical too, but you probably figured that out. I may be the only one on these boards that doesn't want to see a single drop of freezing rain. But this wintry event will need to make a believer out of me.

Just because it's moist enough in COK doesn't mean it has to be here. That's a long ways from us.

Uh no, you are NOT the only one on the board who doesn't want to see freezing rain. I'm in that group as well. I hate freezing rain!

I agree with you Portastorm. I posted in the other thread on this - ice doesn't do anything but cause problems. It's very dangerous. I don't know why anyone would want it. Snow is fun but not the ice. Especially when you lose power.