Could Western Pacific have no tropical cyclones this year

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So far not a cyclone to be seen in the western pacific. Maybe there won't be one over there this year. May all that energy will be over the Atlatnic.


We will see

[senorpepr]

I wouldn't hoist the freak flag just yet...

Looking at the 30-year climotological data set for NWPAC storms (1976-2005), between January 1st and February 17th...

0.70 tropical storms (Winds GTE 35KT)
0.23 typhoons (Winds GTE 65KT)
0.07 major typhoons (Winds GTE 100KT)
0.00 super typhoons (Winds GTE 130KT)

Furthermore, over the past 10 years (1996-2005), the average formation of the first tropical storm (Winds GTE 35KT) was February 18th.

Relax.

[James]

In fact, since 1951 there have only been 14 tropical cyclones during February. I read somewhere that February is the quietest month of the year out there.

[senorpepr]

In fact, since 1951 there have only been 14 tropical cyclones during February. I read somewhere that February is the quietest month of the year out there.

Which would make sense--February is roughly when the equatorial trough is at it's furthest point to the south.

[Aslkahuna]

February through April is the quietest time of the year in WPAC. The absence of storms during those months is absolutely no indicator of what will occur later in the year. OBL will convert to Judaism before the WPAC goes a year without a Tropical Cyclone. The core of the positive SSTA's is now well into WPAC as it usually is during a La Niña so watch for storms to be closer in towards the mainland and more threats to the Philippines.

Steve

[senorpepr]

February through April is the quietest time of the year in WPAC. The absence of storms during those months is absolutely no indicator of what will occur later in the year. OBL will convert to Judaism before the WPAC goes a year without a Tropical Cyclone. The core of the positive SSTA's is now well into WPAC as it usually is during a La Niña so watch for storms to be closer in towards the mainland and more threats to the Philippines.

Steve

Well said.

(Side note: it may be interesting this summer when I take my trip to the Philippines, although I will be south of the usual "typhoon belt.")

[Aquawind]

LOL nice one Steve! So would the Typhoon Belt be the MDR of the WPAC?

Paul

[James]

As a note of interest, in 1998 the first recorded cyclone did not appear until July 7th. Pretty darn late for the W. Pacific at any rate.

[HURAKAN]

As a note of interest, in 1998 the first recorded cyclone did not appear until July 7th. Pretty darn late for the W. Pacific at any rate.

Very interesting, but nevertheless, in 1998 they got more systems (27) than in 2005 (25) even though the first system of 2005 formed in January.

[Aslkahuna]

Depends upon when and where in the philippines you go in the Summer. In June the Visayas (especially Samar and Leyte) up towards southern Luzon and Manila get the threats. In july, storms tend to follow the Baler-Vigan track in northern Luzon until late in the month when they track north of Luzon (of course, when they do that then they get the monsoon surges into Luzon which can mean some really heavy rains). August and September storms stay north and it's not until about mid October that the real typhoon threat in the Philippines begins which lasts until year's end. That's all assuming, of course, that the season follows a typical pattern. Late Spring can be interesting in Central Luzon as the late afternoon thunderstorms there from mid May until the monsoon starts can bring to mind some really vivid memories of Oklahoma in Spring.

Steve

[senorpepr]

Depends upon when and where in the philippines you go in the Summer. In June the Visayas (especially Samar and Leyte) up towards southern Luzon and Manila get the threats. In july, storms tend to follow the Baler-Vigan track in northern Luzon until late in the month when they track north of Luzon (of course, when they do that then they get the monsoon surges into Luzon which can mean some really heavy rains). August and September storms stay north and it's not until about mid October that the real typhoon threat in the Philippines begins which lasts until year's end. That's all assuming, of course, that the season follows a typical pattern. Late Spring can be interesting in Central Luzon as the late afternoon thunderstorms there from mid May until the monsoon starts can bring to mind some really vivid memories of Oklahoma in Spring.

Steve

Hmmm... good information there, thanks. Actually, I'm planning on being in the western Visayas (southern Negros) sometime in June.