(New!!) Cold for the Deep South (Models, Maps, Discussion)

Furious George · #541 Postby **Furious George** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 12:28 pm

At this point with the freezing line holding north of Waco and west of Austin, I don't see it progressing south until much later today. Still will see freezing temps say north of Huntsville, but we'll need a strong push of cold air for anything more than that.

It is good to know the chances of any major frzg rain event for the HOU metro is very slim.

Extremeweatherguy · #542 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 12:28 pm

I am kind of getting mad at this point. My backyard thermometer has been holding steady over the last few hours. I am hoping that temps. will start falling soon! At least the dewpoints are falling..so if we get any good showers (instead of drizzle) temps. will fall. With our dewpoints of about 37F right now..and air temp. of about 41F..we would be able to fall to about 39F if we got a good shower. I am just hoping for dewpoints of 32F or below and air temps. in the 30s by this evening. Whatever we get to tonight should be about the high tomorrow is what I am thinking. I am noticing some strong north winds in the area now too..hopefully these winds will be able to pull in the lower dewpoints at a faster rate.

#543 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 12:49 pm

Currently 39º, dp 39º in W Houston and slowly dropping. Don't see a lot on radar, but our overrunning is supposed to come out of the SW across MX and that may still materailize. Heck this is just like with the tropical. WAIT AND SEE!!!AARRGGHHH!!!! Problem with this is that it is miserably cold(to me) and there is no winter precip-preferably snow, which I know we won't see out of this.)

Extremeweatherguy · #544 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 12:54 pm

It is still 40-41F at my house, but it seems like the temp. is changing every 15 minutes or so. When it is drizzling we are near 40F..when it is not I am near 41F, and if it were to be raining more steadily then I would probably be in the upper 30s. Can't wait to see the 12pm reports across the area...I will be satisfied once I see that dew point dip below 32F.

Extremeweatherguy · #545 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 1:03 pm

As of the noon update there is:

IAH = No change in temps. or dew point.

Conroe = Temps. up 1F, dew point un-changed.

Hooks = Temps. up 1F, dew point un-changed.

**That is very weird that temps. have risin 1F at Hooks and Conroe. I wonder why that is? At least the dew points have not risin; as long as they stay low..we are in good shape.**

Extremeweatherguy · #546 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 2:04 pm

well now it is 1pm and the temp. and dewpoint remain un-changed at Hooks airport.

If we don't start seeing lower temps. and dewpoints soon...as well as more rain...then our chance at frozen precip. is going to lower A LOT!!! The only good news is that at IAH the dewpoint has fallen to 37F and at Conroe the temp. fell back down to 40F. I just hope that these steady temps. take a big nosedive after sunset. All we need is to fall 8-10F and then we are in business for winter weather. This whole situation is really starting to make me upset. :grr:

I thought that we would have been way more active right now than we are. I guess I will wait on the afternoon AFD and see what it has to say...

Stratosphere747 · #547 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 2:11 pm

The only winter weather any of us want to see is snow. That is not going to happen, so hopefully the temps and dewpoints stay as they are.

PTPatrick · #548 Postby **PTPatrick** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 2:17 pm

OK...Is it just me or does the 22 degrees in Memphis right now surpise anybody...considering it is mid 30's in Jackson, MS. This cold area is either farther south and east than anticipated, or it is just colder than was thought. The forecast for Memphis and North MS said nothing about temps in teh low to mid 20s during the day today. Also, Memphis was really supposed to be looking at Freezing rain event. Now they are all snow and not changing back anytime soon. Guess it just goes to show that this airmass/storm system is not behaving as previously anticipated. Hasnt it been said that models dont handle the shallow cold well and that it sometimes goes farther south than forecasted?

And you may be saying 's"He holding out for something to happen in MObile." I am not, although certainly it is facinating to see it this close to me. I know that even if we got winter precip it would be freezing rain, and that doesnt fascinate me that much. Right now the mobile forecast is for a low of 34 and 40% chance of rain tonight. THe temp is currently 41 and...it was supposed to be in the area of 52 today, as of last nights forecast.

Extremeweatherguy · #549 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 2:40 pm

In the last 30 minutes..temps. at my house have fallen a good degree from about 41.6F (yes! It got that warm!) now down to 40.6F. I think as we head into the late afternoon that I will fall into the 30s, and by early evening I predict that Hooks and IAH reach the 30s as well. Overnight will be the time to watch though..any place that gets below 35F may see some sleet and any place below 32F will see freezing rain.

ROCK · #550 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 2:46 pm

Still 45F here in Pearland. Nothing is going to get this far south tonight. I highly doubt I will get below 37 tonight with all this coud cover.

Extremeweatherguy · #551 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 2:47 pm

ROCK wrote:Still 45F here in Pearland. Nothing is going to get this far south tonight. I highly doubt I will get below 37 tonight with all this coud cover.

yeah I would not expect to see anything south of I-10. North of I-10 though people need to keep a close watch on the situation.

#552 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 2:58 pm

PTPatrick wrote:OK...Is it just me or does the 22 degrees in Memphis right now surpise anybody...considering it is mid 30's in Jackson, MS. This cold area is either farther south and east than anticipated, or it is just colder than was thought. The forecast for Memphis and North MS said nothing about temps in teh low to mid 20s during the day today. Also, Memphis was really supposed to be looking at Freezing rain event. Now they are all snow and not changing back anytime soon. Guess it just goes to show that this airmass/storm system is not behaving as previously anticipated. Hasnt it been said that models dont handle the shallow cold well and that it sometimes goes farther south than forecasted?

And you may be saying 's"He holding out for something to happen in MObile." I am not, although certainly it is facinating to see it this close to me. I know that even if we got winter precip it would be freezing rain, and that doesnt fascinate me that much. Right now the mobile forecast is for a low of 34 and 40% chance of rain tonight. THe temp is currently 41 and...it was supposed to be in the area of 52 today, as of last nights forecast.

no doubt, it is 47 where i am right now with temps continuing to drop, with a good chance of precip tonight and a low near 35....gonna be interesting for our area!

and yes, i am holding out for mobile and pensacola!!

PTPatrick · #553 Postby **PTPatrick** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 3:04 pm

Well, even with the cold being a littler farther south than thought...I dont expect any kind of accumulating sleet or freezing rain in Mobile or Pensacola MEtro. I think the best chances of any sleet of freezing rain in the Mobile Forecast area would be Marengo, Clarke, Washington and Choctaw counties in Al and Wayne, Perry and Green counties in MS.

#554 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 3:11 pm

PTPatrick wrote:Well, even with the cold being a littler farther south than thought...I dont expect any kind of accumulating sleet or freezing rain in Mobile or Pensacola MEtro. I think the best chances of any sleet of freezing rain in the Mobile Forecast area would be Marengo, Clarke, Washington and Choctaw counties in Al and Wayne, Perry and Green counties in MS.

i agree, but temps are going down at a good clip, either way, it is gonna be an interesting night, i for one will be staying up, lol

PTPatrick · #555 Postby **PTPatrick** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 3:14 pm

i hear ya...definately the closeset call with the precip coming with temps near freezing since Christmas of 2004

#556 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 3:15 pm

PTPatrick wrote:i hear ya...definately the closeset call with the precip coming with temps near freezing since Christmas of 2004

yep, we only got sleet in pcola for that system, but hey ill take it!

PTPatrick · #557 Postby **PTPatrick** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 3:16 pm

ON the Bayou in Pascagoula, MS I got actually accumlating snow albiet less than half an inch...20 miles away in MObile nothing but sleet and freezing rain

#558 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 3:19 pm

PTPatrick wrote:ON the Bayou in Pascagoula, MS I got actually accumlating snow albiet less than half an inch...20 miles away in MObile nothing but sleet and freezing rain

yep, the snow was so close, yet so far..lol

Extremeweatherguy · #559 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 3:39 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:In the last 30 minutes..temps. at my house have fallen a good degree from about 41.6F (yes! It got that warm!) now down to 40.6F. I think as we head into the late afternoon that I will fall into the 30s, and by early evening I predict that Hooks and IAH reach the 30s as well. Overnight will be the time to watch though..any place that gets below 35F may see some sleet and any place below 32F will see freezing rain.

well I am back up to 41F again. Lets just hope that once the sun sets these numbers fall a bit.

Extremeweatherguy · #560 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 3:40 pm

The NWS has lowered the forecast temps. tonight for Spring, TX to 33F. It is going to be a very close call!

(New!!) Cold for the Deep South (Models, Maps, Discussion)

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