(New!!) Cold for the Deep South (Models, Maps, Discussion)

Extremeweatherguy · #601 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 9:17 pm

I know that the NAM may not have a good handle on the situation...but it CONTINUES to show a good burst of ice/sleet in the area tomorrow morning:

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/m ... &domain=US

And even tomorrow afternoon:

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/m ... &domain=US

And just so you know...in it's latest run IT DOES have a good handle on tonight:

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/m ... &domain=US
^^this is current^^

All I've got to say is that if the NAM is for some reason right about this..then we are all going to be in for quite a surprise tomorrow.

The GFS seems to be buying into this idea also:

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/m ... &domain=US

I think the worst case scenario would be to wake up near 32F tomorrow and then have temps. remain steady through the day with freezing rain and sleet. This scenario (luckily) will probably not occur..but the fact that two very reliable models show a situation like that is quite scary and is something we will want to watch closely. The good news is that both models are predicting this precip. to be very light.

#602 Postby **Mattie** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 9:24 pm

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS EXTENDED UNTIL 6 PM SUN
AFTERNOON.ALONG & NO. OF A LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE. TO
HILLSBORO.TO CORSICANA.TO ATHENS.

SYNOPSIS.LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN.& SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT SLEET CONTINUES ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA. TEMPS WILL NOT RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON & THUS THE ADVISORY EXTENSION. ICE IS FORMING
ON ELEVATED STRUCTURES SUCH AS BRIDGES & OVERPASSES.AND
PATCHY ICE IS ALSO DEPOSITING ALONG ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD USE
MAX CAUTION.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146-191100-
/O.EXT.KFWD.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-060220T0000Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.BOWIE.NOCONA.GAINESVILLE.
SHERMAN.DENISON.BONHAM.PARIS.GRAHAM.OLNEY.JACKSBORO.
DECATUR.BRIDGEPORT.DENTON.LEWISVILLE.FLWR MOUND.
THE COLONY.PLANO.GREENVILLE.COMMERCE.COOPER.
SULPHUR SPRINGS.BRECKENRIDGE.MINERAL WELLS.WEATHERFORD.
BRIAR.FORT WORTH.ARLINGTON.DALLAS.ROCKWALL.TERRELL.
KAUFMAN.FORNEY.WILLS POINT.CANTON.GRAND SALINE.VAN.
EDGEWOOD.EMORY.POINT.EAST TAWAKONI.CISCO.EASTLAND.
RANGER.GORMAN.STEPHENVILLE.DUBLIN.GRANBURY.
OAK TRAIL SHORES.GLEN ROSE.CLEBURNE.BURLESON.WAXAHACHIE.
ENNIS.MIDLOTHIAN.GLENN HEIGHTS.ATHENS.GUN BARREL CITY.
COMANCHE.DE LEON.GOLDTHWAITE.HAMILTON.HICO.CLIFTON.
MERIDIAN.VALLEY MILLS.HILLSBORO.CORSICANA
814 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2006

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY.

Advisory extended for DFW until 6 p.m. Sunday . . . .

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS EXTENDED UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY. ICE
IS DEPOSITING ON BRIDGES & OVERPASSES.& ALSO ON SOME
ROADWAYS. USE MAX CAUTION WHEN DRIVING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN.FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SLEET WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES.
BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS & USE EXTRA CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING ACROSS BRIDGES & OVERPASSES.

#603 Postby **jasons2k** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 9:31 pm

Yeah, I'm down to 37 here. Might be watching this after all...

southerngale · #604 Postby **southerngale** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 9:47 pm

37° here as well.

As for the NAM, it seems to show most of the precip along the coast, and inland a bit. For now, the radar is mostly quiet with a few patches of light rain here and there. Where is all that moisture supposed to come from, according to the NAM?

Extremeweatherguy · #605 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 9:56 pm

southerngale wrote:37° here as well.

As for the NAM, it seems to show most of the precip along the coast, and inland a bit. For now, the radar is mostly quiet with a few patches of light rain here and there. Where is all that moisture supposed to come from, according to the NAM?

Those maps I posted only show the precip. type...not the precip. amount. The precip. it is predicting would all be very light (similar to the mist and light rain many places are seeing right now). The bad thing is that, though light, the ETA (NAM) wants to have it all be frozen too. Here is a look at the amounts/precip. intensities it is predicting:

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/m ... &domain=US

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/m ... &domain=US
^^Very light amounts^^

As for where the moisture will come from...it will probably be the same setup as today and tonight; an overrunning situation with gulf moisture being forced over the cold surface.

Extremeweatherguy · #606 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 10:03 pm

Latest airport updates:

**The scary thing is that all locations have had a dewpoint drop in the last hour...EVEN with rain being reported during the last hour (usually they go up with rain!) :eek:

**

Hooks = 38F and overcast (6F above freezing)<<Dewpoint = 35F
Conroe = 37F and overcast (5F above freezing)<<Dewpoint = 34F
IAH = 39F and overcast (7F above freezing)<<Dewpoint = 35F

SPECIAL MENTION = Austin, TX is now at 30F with freezing mist.

southerngale · #607 Postby **southerngale** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 10:04 pm

Ah ok, that makes more sense...thanks.

If you just look at the first maps and don't realize it's only precip type, it looks like an awful lot of freezing rain and sleet.

southerngale · #608 Postby **southerngale** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 10:09 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:SPECIAL MENTION = Austin, TX is now at 30F with freezing mist.

Really? I don't see anything on radar. If that's the case, this will be a look outside kind of thing if we even get below freezing, instead of watching the radar.

With the wind chill, it feels like it's below freezing. I'm glad I stayed home tonight. It's about to time to put some logs in the fireplace.

aggiecutter · #609 Postby **aggiecutter** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 10:19 pm

Precip, atleast detected by radar, is starting to breakout once again to the west and just north of the DFW metroplex. With temperatures well below freezing in these areas, even light precip could cause major travel problems. All this precip popped up over the last 30 min.

Radar loop...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php ... s&loop=yes

cheezyWXguy · #610 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 10:22 pm

looks like a line is forming through wichita falls...heading east...is there any chance itll hit my area...(im at almost the exact southwest corner of collin county)

#611 Postby **jasons2k** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 10:35 pm

Take a look at the El Paso radar, that's the shortwave expected to impact (mostly north of) DFW later on. It looks like it has some punch to it.

aggiecutter · #612 Postby **aggiecutter** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 10:38 pm

Yeah, I looked at it just a few minutes ago, and I noticed the new GFS has moisture returning to the eastern half texas tomorrow.

aggiecutter · #613 Postby **aggiecutter** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 10:47 pm

Here's a radar of the state of texas. That disturbance could cause some problems because as you pointed out it looks like it might pack a pretty decent punch. If it's strong enough, then it could tap some gulf moisture, and that would really be trouble.

Radar Link..

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/Conus/southplains.shtml

cheezyWXguy · #614 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 10:52 pm

wow!!! thats awesome!! maybe ill see somthing after alll...after all, it has been below freezing for atlest 12 hours...tha means the ground is also prbably below freezing...hopefully anything that falls actaully sticks

Extremeweatherguy · #615 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 11:31 pm

Latest from my backyard:

Temp = 36.5F (down from 37.1F which I recorded 30 mins. ago)
Sky = Overcast with lots of mist
Winds = north breeze

**I am just 4.5F above freezing and with a good 8.5 hours of cooling to go...I think I can easily reach it. Also...we could actually see temps. continue to fall after sunrise tomorrow.**

My prediction for tomorrow = I think that most places will only be able to get 3-6F above their morning lows (if even). If the NAM turns out to be right, then we may not move from our morning lows much at all. Either way..I expect many areas north of I-10 not to get out of the 30s! As for precip. type tonight and tomorrow..there is still a big "?". A few counties west they are reporting freezing mist and even some sleet. We'll just have to see how things go. If the NAM is right...then we may see freezing drizzle and sleet through the day tomorrow.

southerngale · #616 Postby **southerngale** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 11:35 pm

36° here now and up against my flood light, it looks like snow. lol
I'm sure it's just cold drizzle/mist though.

It's 34° at KFDM already.

CajunMama · #617 Postby **CajunMama** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 11:38 pm

*snatches away frack's fantasy giant sized mickey mouse glasses and runs...it's only someone's cigarette ashes!* j/k :lol:

southerngale · #618 Postby **southerngale** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 11:40 pm

CajunMama wrote:*snatches away frack's fantasy giant sized mickey mouse glasses and runs...it's only someone's cigarette ashes!* j/k

Hey now...those are my moon-resistant ones. You can't take those! :eek:

cheezyWXguy · #619 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 11:58 pm

it looks like precip is redeveloping in my area...I think we may actually get something...it appears that more of the precip is developing south of the previous ones

#620 Postby **jasons2k** » Sun Feb 19, 2006 12:03 am

I'm thawing the crow and getting a bit nervous. It's 36 here now with mist, but the dewpoint continues to drop. EWG if I have a coat of ice in the morning I will owe you an apology.

(New!!) Cold for the Deep South (Models, Maps, Discussion)

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