(New!!) Cold for the Deep South (Models, Maps, Discussion)

[wxman22]

EWG is it just me or the NAM may be right on tnis situation? Seems like temps are dropping MUCH faster than forcast and theres a wave pusing towards us from the west that should enchance precip over the area.... Things could get intresting and the NAM may be right....

[Extremeweatherguy]

Freezing precip. is now being reported in Austin, parts of Lufkin, Waco, and as close as La Grange. The temp. at Hooks is still 38F...but I am down to 36F here at my house. At IAH they are still 38F too, and at Conroe they are 36F. Within the next hour, I expect frozen precip. to begin in College station which is now 33F. With 8-9 hrs. of cooling left (and may be more if we continue to cool past sunrise)...I expect many areas to dip to 30-35F in our area tonight. IAH should stay above freezing...Hooks MAY be able to get to 32F, and conroe will most likely hit 32F or below. We are still in a wait and see mode though..

[Extremeweatherguy]

EWG is it just me or the NAM may be right on tnis situation? Seems like temps are dropping MUCH faster than forcast and theres a wave pusing towards us from the west that should enchance precip over the area.... Things could get intresting and the NAM may be right....

It just may be right about tonight/tomorrow! I think the biggest question right now is about tomorrow. The current forecast is for rain and 41F...but I have a feeling we do not get that warm. I think that with the wave pushing in from the west tomorrow could be quite a day. Our lows tomorrow morning may not be far from what our highs turn out to be. Depending on how cold it is..there is also a frozen precipitation chance. We will have to watch the situation closely..

[southerngale]

NWS has a high of 41° for me tomorrow, but KFDM has a high of only 35°
I tend to lean toward KFDM since they called this cold before NWS, at least publically, and their numbers have been closer thus far.

Btw, it's 35° here now.

[vbhoutex]

We're at 35.6º at my house in Spring Branch. Doesn't look like it will have a lot of trouble getting at least real close to freezing. What I am not seeing is the wave coming in from the West you are mentioning. I see precip moving in from the West well to our NW and it is moving E to ENE. What am I missing? Any precip we might be having in our area is so light it isn't even being picked up by radars.

[Extremeweatherguy]

They are reporting sleet in brenham this morning at 34F! Everybody should be alert to that possibility as it looks like it does not have to be 32F to get a few sleet pellets this morning. Huntsville also reported sleet a few hours ago..but it was 32F there.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest airport updates (7am):

Hooks = 35F with a dewpoint of 32F (overcast)
IAH = 35F with a dewpoint of 32F (overcast)
Conroe = 33F with a dewpoint of 31F (overcast)

**If we get any mist or light rain, then our temps. will fall very close to the freezing mark!**

[Kelarie]

Well it is 7:45 am in Austin and it is icy. Interesting turn of events. Not really rain, but more drizzle. Just turned on the tv and there was a 18 car pile up.

So, this was a bit unexpected this this was supposed to have cleared out.

Hmmm...

[cheezyWXguy]

Well it is 7:45 am in Austin and it is icy. Interesting turn of events. Not really rain, but more drizzle. Just turned on the tv and there was a 18 car pile up.

So, this was a bit unexpected this this was supposed to have cleared out.

Hmmm...

so when u say "icy" do u mean that theres actually a layer of ice on the ground? I have nothing on the ground and itd be interesting to hear that a place so much farther south got so much more than me

[Kelarie]

Well it is 7:45 am in Austin and it is icy. Interesting turn of events. Not really rain, but more drizzle. Just turned on the tv and there was a 18 car pile up.

So, this was a bit unexpected this this was supposed to have cleared out.

Hmmm...

so when u say "icy" do u mean that theres actually a layer of ice on the ground? I have nothing on the ground and itd be interesting to hear that a place so much farther south got so much more than me

Yep there is ice on my walk way, from news reports there is ice on over passes. Is there alot? Not, and is spotty. But we have ice down here.

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah I heard on the weather channel that research blvd. is completely glazed over. I also heard that it is Icy down in San Antonio as well.

[Furious George]

At 9 am this morning, college station has come up to 33 degrees - just as the frz rain advisory is being canceled. Huntsville is at 31, but they should be warming up slowly. NWS expects a high of 41 at IAH today - another chilly day for sure. Looks like the Houston suburbs escaped what was likely our last chance of wintry precip - but winter temps will definatley be alive today.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'm actually glad we didn't see the ice. Many places around the state are seeing multiple car pile ups...not something we need. I wouldn't rule out the chance of sleet though for the next few hours. Brenham reported sleet at 34F earlier and down in SOUTH Texas there were also a few reports of sleet with temps. in the mid 30s. I would not be surprised to see a few pellets before noon.

[Extremeweatherguy]

A few heavier (than drizzle) showers are beginning to form to our south and southwest. I think that within these showers is our best chance to see a little sleet. These rain and sleet showers should be spotty at best though and only a few should see them in their area. More may form though, so I would stay tuned..especially since our dewpoint is ranging from 30-32F right now.

[jasons2k]

Whew! We made it here OK with a low of 33. Kudos to the NWS once again!

[ROCK]

stayed in the 35-36 range down here overnight. At 37 right now....we get through today and winter will be over IMO....

[Extremeweatherguy]

The NWS has lowered our expected high for today to 37F!!! Brrr... (they also lowered tonights low from 39F to 36F). Today will be wintry for sure.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

still have 34*F here on the north side of tomball and its drippy and wet, who knows maybe some sleet or a least a pellet or two later on.

[Extremeweatherguy]

stayed in the 35-36 range down here overnight. At 37 right now....we get through today and winter will be over IMO....

well this whole week will be cloudy with a chance of rain and highs below 70F..and some days will be below 60F...but yes, beyond this week and next weekend..spring may finally arrive! The week of the 27th looks like it may feature a huge ridge in the plains and highs into the 80s or even 90s look like a possibility! At this point I could sure go for some warm weather.

[Extremeweatherguy]

From the NWS:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
941 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2006

.UPDATE...
12Z DATA SHOW COLD AIR DEPTH ABOUT 3-4 KFT DEEP OVER OUR AREA WITH
WEAK COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING AT THE SURFACE. TEMPS DROPPED TO
30-32 DEGEES FROM NORTHERN LIBERTY COUNTY TO WASHINGTON COUNTY
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE NOT YET RISEN MUCH. PRECIP HAS BEEN LACKING
AND NO REPORTS OF ICING HAVE BEEN RECEIVED HERE THIS MORNING.
SOUNDING AT CRP SHOWS SATURATED LAYER JUST ABOVE THE ARCTIC CAP
... HOWEVER... 295K ISEN ANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY UPGLIDE. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SPITS OF LIGHT RAIN OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE
BUT DOUBT ANY MEASUREABLE. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY EXPIRED AT 9 AM
AND WILL NOT REISSUE AT THIS UPDATE. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS 3-5
DEGREES AS EXPECT LITTLE MOVEMENT UPWARD TODAY. ADJUSTED
TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND ASSOCIATED GRIDS THROUGH MONDAY TO FIT THIS
SCENARIO.