(New!!) Cold for the Deep South (Models, Maps, Discussion)

[jasons2k]

Something just LOVELY......our furnace has now gone kaput. We had it serviced 3 months ago. Just got off the phone with the warranty company and they only have a 30-day guarantee for service calls so we have to pay another service charge - and since it's Sunday I doubt we will see them out today. Time to cook some soup and huddle-up by the fire. I'm sick of this and ready for spring!

[PTrackerLA]

I was reading the NWS Houston/Galveston's discussion and they mentioned that next weekend we will transition to a NW flow aloft as a Hudson Bay low forms. I then checked accuweather and they have us in the mid 50's for highs/ lows in the 30's starting next saturday through the Mardi gras period with fair conditions. Looks like it will be a nice and cool mardi gras this year!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like tomorrow will be cold too...the NWS is forecasting 48F..but I think that we won't get above 45F if the cloud cover is anything like today's. The good news is that by Tuesday..the forecast high shoots up to 70F (finally relief from this cold)! Next weekend will be chilly again (50's predicted by NWS), but should probably not be anything like this weekend was. As for tonight we will once again be watching that freezing line closely (NWS forecast of 33-34F in our area)..but the good news is that even if we hit freezing..the only thing to worry about would be spotty freezing drizzle with very light accumulations.

[Extremeweatherguy]

UPDATE: some light precip. is forming off the gulf and heading for south Houston. A few places can expect to see a light to moderate shower (may be sleet?) in the Houston area over the next few hours. Other places (that do not see the showers) may see an increase in drizzle activity again.

[aggiecutter]

Unexpectedly, the radar is starting to light up again. With temperatures in the mid 20's for the past 36 hours, this could be a mess. I'm currently experiencing light freezing rain at my house.

Radar link...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php ... 1&loop=yes

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I guess Bastardi get's another star for calling this cold snap right for Texas. True we didn't get the ice in volume that he called for. But it failed to get over 41 at my house today on the far Northwest side of Corpus. Our local mets and the NWS said we should have been in the 60's today as of Thursday last week.

BTW, he thinks we are not done with the cold. We shall see.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Interesting weather here right now..it is a lot colder than I thought it would be. Here is a look at the current conditions in my backyard:

Temp: 35F
Sky: Overcast with heavy drizzle (looks like snow in backyard floodlights )
Wind: Light north breeze

I am only 3F above that magic 32F mark...I will be watching closely.

[Extremeweatherguy]

AFD update from the NWS in Houston:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
927 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SOME CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE UPDATE. BASED ON CURRENT
TEMP/RADAR TRENDS...HAVE DECIDED TO ADD THE MENTION OF -ZL/-ZF OVER
THE NRN ZONES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LATEST TEMPS ARE RUNNING A-
BOUT 2-4 DEGREES COOLER SO FAR TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
AS SUCH..WE ARE ALREADY MUCH CLOSER TO/ALREADY AT FREEZING OVER THE
NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA (PARTICULARLY THE NERN COUNTIES). THE TRAJ-
ECTORY OF THE INCOMING S/WVS VIA THE JET ALOFT APPEARS TO BE MORE N
OF THE REGION SO WILL HOLD OFF ON AN A REPEAT OF THE -FZRA ADVISORY
TONIGHT. SPS/UPDATED HWO SHOULD COVER THINGS FOR NOW. 41

[Extremeweatherguy]

That freezing rain forecast line goes all the way down to a BRENHAM to WOODLANDS to JASPER line. That is MUCH further south than last night and being that I am just a few miles south of the woodlands and already at 35F (and dropping)..tonight could be quite interesting!

EDIT (a few minutes later): This is weird...but in the grid forecast they have freezing rain all the way to the woodlands, but in a recent special weather statement they say a line from Brenham to Conroe and northward. Their grid forecasts and statements don't match...I guess we'll see what happens overnight..

[jasons2k]

Yeah, talk about wierd, check this out...

Point forecast for my house:
Overnight: Occasional drizzle. Areas of fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low near 34. Northeast wind around 5 mph.

Point forecast, just a tad SOUTH of my house:
Overnight: Occasional drizzle before midnight, then a chance of freezing drizzle. Areas of fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low near 34. Northeast wind around 5 mph.

On top of that, how can we change to Frz. Drizzle with a low of 34? Talk about whack.

It's 35 here now with mist/drizzle. Unless the DP drops (now 33) we should be safe.

[jasons2k]

Also, to add, the point forecast for Willis, which is well north of Conroe - and north of the line in the Special Weather Statement, is the exact same, except it lists East winds instead of NE winds:

Overnight: Occasional drizzle before midnight, then a chance of freezing drizzle. Areas of fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low near 34. East wind around 5 mph.

[wxman22]

One rule of thumb is it doesnt have to be exactly 32F for freezing rain, Ive heard of freezing rain with temps being 33F

[PTrackerLA]

Freezing rain advisory has just went up just north of here. I'm actually at 38 in Lafayette but just 20 miles north of here temps are below freezing. It might be an unexpectedly icy commute for many in the morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1117 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER LARGER AREA OF -RA HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SE TX/SW LA...AND
MOVING NE VERY QUICKLY. THE PROBLEM LIES WITH THE COLD AIR CONTINUING
TO SAG FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA THIS EVENING...WITH TEMPS
THERE NOW NEAR 30 TO THE LOWER 30S...WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20. MIX THOSE FACTORS TOGETHER...AND THE OUTCOME IS FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE INLAND ZONES...MAINLY NORTH OF US 190 IS ROUGHLY WHERE THE FREEZING
LINE WILL HOLD. ISSUED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FOR THIS DEVELOPING
WINTER SITUATION. DON`T EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION...MAINLY BELOW 0.05"
OR LESS EXPECTED WATER EQUIVALENT. FROM US-190 SOUTH...WILL MAINLY
BE LIGHT RAIN. NOTE...ALL MODELS FORECASTED A WARMING TREND OVERNIGHT.

[southerngale]

When I was already below my forecasted low of 35° by NWS and 34° by KFDM fairly early tonight, I wondered if I'd reach freezing. I'm between a 30° and 32° reading and just saw this:

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY
Rest Of Tonight...Cloudy with light freezing rain likely. Lows around 30. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Presidents Day...Cloudy. Slight chance of rain and light freezing rain in the early morning...Then a slight chance of rain during the late morning and afternoon. Highs in the mid 40s. Northeast winds around 10 mph in the morning becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.


Tonight, they lowered the low from 35° to 30° - smart move since we were already below the forecasted low when they did the update.

[wxman22]

Looks like will see this all week....

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Textbook lesson with this Arctic outbreak for Texas. Once something cold like this comes into Texas, it takes awhile for it to leave. It's not record breaking stuff by no means. But it proves the point you don't need a King Kong type Arctic High to turn the state from Dalhart to Brownsville, cold for awhile. We were supposed to be 60's yesterday, the high at my house was 41 and most of the day was spent in the 30's. Today it was to warm into the 60' to near 70. We'll be lucky to hit 50, very lucky. And we won't hit the 60's tomorrow either.

I love it!

[jasons2k]

One rule of thumb is it doesnt have to be exactly 32F for freezing rain, Ive heard of freezing rain with temps being 33F

The only type of situation I have ever heard of "freezing rain" above 32, as described once by Harold Taft back in 1989, is when you have a very wide temp./dewpoint spread with quick evaporative cooling along with very strong winds...in that case some steel overpasses could cool quicker than the air and freeze-up before the air temperature actually reaches 32. But it's an extremely rare phenomena. The conditions in TX over the weekend wouldn't be able to produce this.

[Portastorm]

Textbook lesson with this Arctic outbreak for Texas. Once something cold like this comes into Texas, it takes awhile for it to leave. It's not record breaking stuff by no means. But it proves the point you don't need a King Kong type Arctic High to turn the state from Dalhart to Brownsville, cold for awhile. We were supposed to be 60's yesterday, the high at my house was 41 and most of the day was spent in the 30's. Today it was to warm into the 60' to near 70. We'll be lucky to hit 50, very lucky. And we won't hit the 60's tomorrow either.

I love it!

Good points all!

Even with a shallow cold airmass, it's not going anywhere fast. This is indeed very typical of what we see in Texas and why we should be skeptical of any model run (i.e. GFS) that tries to displace such an airmass too quickly. They usually stick around several days.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

One little thing to add to my post. You might see it moderate faster in west Texas or the Panhandle than closer to the coast because of the influence of the downslope winds from the Rockies. I've seen it colder in Corpus than Dalhart in these cases too. Not too mention the Gulf waters (especailly when they are warm) serve as an incubator for low clouds and fog which keep the cold air from getting warmed by the sun.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It actually was record breaking for some. The high at IAH yesterday was 38F..the old lowest high was 46F for the day.