SST'S and Anomalies in Atlantic and Pacific

[cycloneye]

Good graphic loops to follow in the next 3-4 months to see how the Pacific ocean is doing well below the surface and also how the Atlantic is doing in terms of the anomalys.I dont see Kelvin Waves at this moment that could warm all the equatorial pacific and trigger a surprise el nino but let's keep watching.

[cycloneye]

Interesting to look how the warming at el nino 1-2 area just west of SouthAmerica has increased with time.For sure La Nina is more weaker right now than 2 weeks ago.Let's keep watching the progress of the anomalies in the next 2-3 months to see how they will be when the hurricane season arrives.

[MiamiensisWx]

The La Nina is definately weakening... the waters in the central Pacific have also warmed, too.

[JonathanBelles]

bye bye la nina (how do u do the ~ above the n in nina)

[Jim Hughes]

The La Nina is definately weakening... the waters in the central Pacific have also warmed, too.

The La Nina is weakening because of the warming in the stratosphere between 65-90N at the 30 hPa level. I wrote about this relationship back in November in my

"Stratosphere, Ozone, and how this effects the AMO cycle" discussion.


http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=78570

The formula for this winter is listed a little more than halfway through under..."Formulas for El Nino/La Nina phases and other info: "

We have an eastern QBO.. 50 mb....Solar cycle specifics are the same 2000- until next maximum.....warming at 30 hPa.


You can see the 30 hPa anomaly warmng here in this graph.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/s ... mb9065.gif


A red flag went up a few weeks back in regards to certain things that I can not talk about here. I was previously relying on some bad data just like I had mistakenly done last winter and spring. It seems to have a role in ENSO phases...loads the dice..

I talked about the La Nina weakening in some other places over the past few weeks. This is definitely occurring.



Jim

[Jim Cantore]

another neutral year?

[Jim Hughes]

another neutral year?

I would think neutral or warming. But that does not mean that certain things may not be already in motion...in regards to the tropics.

The subsurface waters in the western Pacific are warming quite well and they are slowly interacting with the cooler waters to the east. But they will have to move considerably more eastward to have a sharp change in the SST's above.

The waters off of SA are changing and the anomalies have shown this. The 30 day SOI average was + 12.60 on 2/1 ....It was at + 2.60 today.

The MJO has also been showing tendencies toward a more neutral or warm trend. The next 30-45 days is the true litmus test.



Jim

[Jim Cantore]

We really need an El Nino Hurricane Season, we need a break

[cycloneye]

A Closeup view of how the GOM,Western Caribbean and the Western Atlantic is in terms of warm and cool waters.

[windycity]

i agree. A surprise el nino would be such a blessing, while a neg. enso year would put florida at a higher risk for land falls. Jim, what do you think?

[cycloneye]

More warming at this update of the data at el nino 1-2 area west of SouthAmerica.Will there be a big surprise of el nino waking up?





Some cool pockets haved appeared in parts of the Atlantic but also there are warm pockets too and the warm anomaly in the GOM persists.

[JonathanBelles]

why is the water around florida so cold

[f5]

what happened to noaa's offical la nina all i see is warming off the coast of south america which means el nino is trying to wake up

[MiamiensisWx]

windycity, what is happening right now may very well not be good news for southeast Florida, since a stronger and slightly more western ridge may set up...

[CHRISTY]

i have a question do you guys think neutral conditions are setting up again this year?because its truly a scary thought that 2006 may be worse the 2005.so hopefully neutral conditions wont be around!

[MiamiensisWx]

If this trend continues, I think neutral conditions may very well set up, CHRISTY. I think the La Nina may very well weaken a good amount by summer and be a weak La Nina then, if not neutral.

[windycity]

CVW,i agree, what we are seeing now is not good for us in so.fl. This is what happened in 04!

[CHRISTY]

thanks 4 answering my question....yea something tells me florida is going to really get this year!

[MiamiensisWx]

Plus, we have yet to see a major hit in southeast Florida (Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties) from the east other than Andrew, windycity. Other than Andrew, we have not seen one in over 40 years.

[CHRISTY]

yea i know its been a very long time....but iam thinking with a strong capeverde season and this different factors going aganist us its only a matter of time before our 40 year luck runs out!