[Southeast Texas weather Updates]

[wxman22]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 201552
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
952 AM CST MON FEB 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...
AT 14Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EAST ACROSS THE GULF FROM A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF BROWNSVILLE. THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. 12Z SOUNDINGS STILL
SHOW A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED
AND ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY IS IN STORE. PATCHY FOG AND INTERMITTENT
DRIZZLE WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO
MAJOR CHANGES. WILL UPDATE TO CLEAN UP MORNING WORDING. 43

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 529 AM CST MON FEB 20 2006)

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES STILL HOVERING IN THE 34-39 DEGREE RANGE INLAND SO
PRECIP WHAT LITTLE WE HAVE HAD HAS BEEN DRIZZLE. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
IT SWITCHING OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE GIVEN THE WARMER SOUNDINGS
PER ACARS/RUC/ETA/GFS. STATIONARY FRONT STUCK OUT AROUND 95 MILES
SOUTH OF GALVESTON THIS MORNING. WAA OVER THE TOP OF THE SHALLOW
COLD AIR WILL BE WEAKENING QUITE A BIT THIS MORNING SO EXPECT THE
RAIN CHANCES TO BE SLIM-WILL KEEP THE POPS AT 20 PERCENT. ALL THIS
SAID IT SHOULD MAKE FOR A COOL CLOUDY DAY. FALLING PRESSURES IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE COLD AIR
SHOULD VEER WINDS FROM THE NE TODAY TO THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.
THE STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS A SLOW NORTHWARD MARCH AND BRING BACK
MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THE THREAT OF FOG TONIGHT AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ON TAP TIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN WARM FRONT GETS NORTH OF THE CWA AND THEN SKIES MAY
BECOME PARTLY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY...WILL FAVOR THE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR
THE TIME BEING. A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND
WITH THE WARM FRONT CLOSE BY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SUNSHINE HAVE
RAISED POPS NORTH TO 30 FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS STILL
PROGGING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY AND ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET TO BE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE
POPS. IT GETS MORE IFFY AFTER THAT WITH THE FRONT PER GFS SAGGING
VERY SLOWLY SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FINALLY A STRONG PUSH OF
CANADIAN AIR DROPS SOUTHEAST AND SOME OF IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. HAVE TWEEKED TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MUCH COOLER AIR SHOULD HAVE ARRIVED BY. 45

AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR SURFACE AND LOW
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. CIGS WILL BLO 010 FOR
MOST OF THE DAY THROUGHOUT ALL OF SE TX. VSBY WILL BE 2-4 MILES IN
THE AM IMPVG TO 4-6 MILES THIS AFTN. PCPN WILL BE WIDELY SCT AND
LIGHT. VERY LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH ALLOWING INVERSION TO LIFT. 34

MARINE...
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. WILL KEEP
SCEC FOR OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING DUE MAINLY TO SEAS WITH
CONDITIONS IMPVG THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL
PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN RETREATING TO THE NORTH LATER TODAY AND
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS FRONT MOVES ONSHORE.34

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 43 41 67 57 70 / 20 20 30 20 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 43 42 71 62 71 / 20 20 20 20 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 47 47 68 62 71 / 20 20 20 20 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

[wxman22]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 201911
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
110 PM CST MON FEB 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE...
A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE
LOW/MID 50S TODAY. WILL UPDATE ZONES AND CALL FOR HIGHS NEAR 60 SW
ZONES. NORTHERN ZONES STILL AROUND 40. 43

AT 14Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EAST ACROSS THE GULF
FROM A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF BROWNSVILLE. THE FRONT
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. 12Z SOUNDINGS
STILL SHOW A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
TRAPPED AND ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY IS IN STORE. PATCHY FOG AND
INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE. FORECAST IS ON
TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES. WILL UPDATE TO CLEAN UP MORNING
WORDING. 43

43

&&

[wxman22]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 202118
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
318 PM CST MON FEB 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT STILL WAY OFFSHORE. THIS FEATURE IS STILL PROGGED TO
HEAD THIS WAY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CEILINGS AND FOG STILL
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. FOR TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL
NOT FALL MUCH AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STEADY
OR EVEN SLOWLY RISE TOWARD MORNING. WILL LIKELY NEED AN NPW FOR
DENSE FOG TONIGHT...PROBABLY AFTER 06Z. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT MAKE
THE CALL BUT VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW A HALF MILE ALONG
THE COAST. SEA FOG IS NOTORIOUSLY TOUGH TO ERODE AND THINK GLS/BAYS
MAY STAY FOGGY FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY. DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 60S AND THE RECENT COOL SPELL HAS LOWERED WATER TEMPS INTO
THE LOWER 50S.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY NORTH OF I-10 THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
SEND A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES OVER THE AREA AND TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WED-FRI. TIMING
AND AREAL EXTENT STILL UNCLEAR SO WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
NEXT AND MORE POTENT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
LOOKS COLDER FOR SUN/MON...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THIS LAST SYSTEM. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 43 64 56 71 56 / 20 20 20 40 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 47 66 61 72 58 / 20 20 20 30 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 50 63 62 68 62 / 20 20 20 30 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$