Watch BOC and WGOM this week

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri May 30, 2003 4:57 pm

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9nh.gif

Hummmm this hpc model shows a few days from now a low in the BOC and that may be related to some energy that may go from the EPAC into the BOC so stay tuned.

Steve you said in another thread this scenario so let's see what happens.

Rainband · #2 Postby **Rainband** » Fri May 30, 2003 5:00 pm

Thanks for the information cycloneye..I will watch this carefully..June is one of the months canes or storms threaten our area..as always though we won't get anything :lol:

OtherHD · #3 Postby **OtherHD** » Fri May 30, 2003 5:05 pm

Meh, I wouldn't lose any sleep over it.

#4 Postby **wx247** » Fri May 30, 2003 5:10 pm

It is something to watch nonetheless.

Rainband · #5 Postby **Rainband** » Fri May 30, 2003 5:12 pm

wx247 wrote:It is something to watch nonetheless.

Yes it is..OtherHD I never lose sleep over any storm..unless it knocks my power off and the air doesn't work!!! :roll:

I cannot..sleep without AC>>> :wink:

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri May 30, 2003 5:32 pm

Let's watch this and see if it pans out or not.

Guest · #7 Postby **Guest** » Fri May 30, 2003 5:52 pm

Shows the models are already cranking - good or bad - its that time of year folks. As I say Allision happened in the early part of June - so be interesting if it pans out.

Derecho · #8 Postby **Derecho** » Fri May 30, 2003 7:23 pm

cycloneye wrote:http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9nh.gif

Hummmm this hpc model shows a few days from now a low in the BOC and that may be related to some energy that may go from the EPAC into the BOC so stay tuned.

That specific HPC product is not a model, it's a forecast. (I see the two confused at times :-)

.) It's hand-drawn by a human being (who has looked at all the models, of course.) I'll have to do some checking to figure out which ones have the feature.

PTrackerLA · #9 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Fri May 30, 2003 8:59 pm

I hate to say this but we're going to need a tropical system to break our rainfall deficit. It's quickly approaching 12" for the year in Lafayette and we have only isolated chances of rain next week. Come on gulf of mexico please send us some tropical moisture!

Derek Ortt · #10 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri May 30, 2003 9:16 pm

Lets all remember, that is a long-term forecast. There is incredible error sunject to that forecast. Just because one model picked up on Allison, doesn't make every forecast true. Lets wait until some disturbance actually moves into the BOC to become excited

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri May 30, 2003 9:29 pm

Agree on that statement Derek about waiting for the system to be in the BOC and then we will go from there.

Tip · #12 Postby **Tip** » Sat May 31, 2003 8:32 am

So far only NOGAPS sees this feature. http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/cyclonephase ... 100/3.html

southerngale · #13 Postby **southerngale** » Sat May 31, 2003 10:49 am

Rainband wrote:
wx247 wrote:It is something to watch nonetheless.
Yes it is..OtherHD I never lose sleep over any storm..unless it knocks my power off and the air doesn't work!!! I cannot..sleep without AC>>>

You and me both buddy. You mean there are people who can sleep without a/c??? :o

Rainband · #14 Postby **Rainband** » Sat May 31, 2003 3:06 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Lets all remember, that is a long-term forecast. There is incredible error sunject to that forecast. Just because one model picked up on Allison, doesn't make every forecast true. Lets wait until some disturbance actually moves into the BOC to become excited

No one is excited we are just talking about what if's.. mellow out!! :lol:

J/K..I know what your saying but I know these models are fickle and I only really become interested when there is an actual disturbance or storm>> :wink:

#15 Postby **Steve** » Sat May 31, 2003 9:45 pm

>>No one is excited we are just talking about what if's.. mellow out!! J/K..I know what your saying but I know these models are fickle and I only really become interested when there is an actual disturbance or storm>>

Sup Rainband? I agree with what you're saying. But it's enhanced by the excitement of the season starting in about 2:20. Funny you should mention the unreliability of the models way out. I'm not big on the GFS anyway because of its known biases, but on the 372 hour loop, it wants to develop 2 gulf storms in some capacity. The first comes up from the south of a stalled out frontal boundary along the GC. It pulses and hits southern LA, moves back slightly off shore and pulses up around Mobile Bay before slowing heading off into GA. A few days later, an apparently stronger storm develops a couple hundred miles east of the TX Coast and comes into Central LA.

Like you, I'll believe it when I see it. But now that the season is just about here, you have to watch the models to see their tendencies.

Steve

#16 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat May 31, 2003 10:01 pm

The models haved been distint many of them but let's wait to see if they concide in the comming days with those scenarios that you are saying Steve.

PTrackerLA · #17 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Sat May 31, 2003 11:29 pm

Well if this spurious system is in the form of a TD or weak TS, I'll take it, as long as it doesn't stay around too long. Happy Hurricane season east coast!

#18 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jun 01, 2003 9:13 pm

Those who live at the texas coast will have to watch this area this week as some models want to develop a low pressure but still too early to say for sure if this scenario will take place but keep a watch at the GOM this week to see if it pans out.

OtherHD · #19 Postby **OtherHD** » Sun Jun 01, 2003 9:19 pm

I just want rain. I don't care what form it's in. Just rain!

#20 Postby **wx247** » Sun Jun 01, 2003 9:24 pm

Is this low trying to form from what is over in the EPAC now near the Mexican coast like I believe Steve was eluding to in an earlier thread?

Watch BOC and WGOM this week

Watch BOC and WGOM this week

Re: Watch bay of campeche next few days

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