Mozambique Channel: Invest 95S (Ex. TC 12S)

[P.K.]

It would be easier if the NHC changed to 10 min averages as well so you wouldn't have to convert. (We've been down this path before, no need to reply )

[Derek Ortt]

looks like a weak to moderate TS based upon the sats. Center seems to be on the northern extent of the cloud shield

[P.K.]

Only forecast to reach moderate tropical storm strength now.

BULLETIN DU 20 FEVRIER A 04H30 LOCALES:

VIGILANCE CYCLONIQUE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 09-20052006

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 995 HPA.
POSITION LE 20 FEVRIER A 04 HEURES LOCALES: 19.1 SUD / 57.3 EST
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES UN SUD ET CINQUANTE-SEPT DEGRES TROIS EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 260 KM AU NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST A 11 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 20.6S/57.9E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 21.8S/56.5E
DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 22.6S/51.2E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
LE BULLETIN SERA ACTUALISE A 07H30 LOCALES

[P.K.]

Seems to have reached its maximum intensity.

BULLETIN DU 20 FEVRIER A 10H30 LOCALES:

VIGILANCE CYCLONIQUE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 09-20052006

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 995 HPA.
POSITION LE 20 FEVRIER A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 19.2 SUD / 58.1 EST
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE-HUIT DEGRES UN EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 310 KM AU NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST A 16 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 20S/60.1E
PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 21.5S/60.5E
PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 23S/58E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.

[James]

Doesn't look like it will survive much longer than 48 hours now.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 19.6S 58.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 58.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 20.3S 59.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 21.5S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 22.3S 59.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 22.9S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 58.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM NORTH-
EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. A
BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TURN THE SYSTEM TO
THE WEST PAST TAU 24. HOWEVER, AN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRON-
MENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND CAUSE DISSIPATION
BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z.



TC 12S INTENSIFICATING WINDOW HAS CLOSED.

[WindRunner]

Wow . . . definately not looking so good right now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It would be easier if the NHC changed to 10 min averages as well so you wouldn't have to convert. (We've been down this path before, no need to reply )

I disagree with that...I like our system

[P.K.]

Down to a TD and not long left it looks like.

BULLETIN DU 20 FEVRIER A 19H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

DEPRESSION TROPICALE 09-20052006

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1000 HPA.
POSITION LE 20 FEVRIER A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 19.4 SUD / 58.1 EST
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET CINQUANTE-HUIT DEGRES UN EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 300 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 20.1S/57.1E
DISSIPE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 20.5S/53.5E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
IL SERA REACTUALISE A 22H30

[P.K.]

The convection is rather detached from the centre, not long left at all for this.

BULLETIN DU 20 FEVRIER A 22H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET SI AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES,
IL EST FORTEMENT RECOMMANDE DE SE TENIR INFORME DE L'EVOLUTION DE
LA SITUATION
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

DEPRESSION TROPICALE 09-20052006

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1001 HPA.
POSITION LE 20 FEVRIER A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 19.2 SUD / 57.8 EST
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE-SEPT DEGRES HUIT EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 290 KM AU NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST A 7 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 19.5S/55.8E
DISSIPE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 20.2S/53.4E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
REACTUALISATION MARDI 21 FEVRIER A 04H30 LOCALES

[James]

The JTWC has just issued its final warning on the system.

[P.K.]

Remnant low.

BULLETIN DU 21 FEVRIER A 16H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET SI AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES,
IL EST FORTEMENT RECOMMANDE DE SE TENIR INFORME DE L'EVOLUTION DE
LA SITUATION
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT 09-20052006

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1003 HPA.
POSITION LE 21 FEVRIER A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 18.6 SUD / 56.7 EST
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE-SIX DEGRES SEPT EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 275 KM AU NORD-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST A 9 KM/H.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.


The question is does this system take the name Carina or not? I'd assume it would but none of the advisories I saw gave it a name.

[hcane27]

The group responsible for naming the system never labeled it ... so no, it was never "Carina" .....

[P.K.]

How can they upgrade it to a moderate tropical storm and not name it though? I'm a bit confused about what MF are doing here.

Even their naming page suggests it should have been named!

Liste des noms des tempêtes et cyclones tropicaux pour la saison 2005-2006
sur le Sud-Ouest de l´Océan Indien
Page d´accueil
Page d'accueil des trajectoires de la saison
Nom Date de baptême
(heure Réunion = UTC+4)
ALVIN 24 / 11 / 2005 à 00:00 UTC
BOLOETSE 25 / 01 / 2006 à 06:00 UTC
CARINA
DIWA
ELIA
FARDA
GUDUZA
HELIO
ISABELLA
JAONE
KUNDAI
LINDSAY
MARINDA
NADETY
OTILE
PINDILE
QUINCY
RUGARE
SEBINA
TIMBA
USTA
VELO
WILBY
XANDA
YURI
ZOELLE

[hcane27]

Taht's the French for you .....

[HURAKAN]

TRYING TO MAKE A COMEBACK?!?!?

[Coredesat]

All I know is that "Carina" should be removed from this thread's title, because 12S never got named.

EDIT: And in the 30 seconds it took me to write this post, that's what happened. Ah well.

[HURAKAN]

All I know is that "Carina" should be removed from this thread's title, because 12S never got named.

EDIT: And in the 30 seconds it took me to write this post, that's what happened. Ah well.

When I decided to move the thread up by posting the new satellite image of Ex. 12S, my first intention was to remove the name and also adjust it to "Ex." since officially it doesn't exist anymore.

[Coredesat]

It's looking good, but it also looks like it's making landfall.

[HURAKAN]

It may have a chance once it gets over the Mozambique Channel.