SST'S and Anomalies in Atlantic and Pacific

[MiamiensisWx]

Andrew occurred during a neutral or El Nino year... it's coming soon...

[windycity]

04 was actually a weak el nino year.It was the ridge setup that got us.

[f5]

if we return to neutral conditions thats very bad news for an already crippled gulf coast.if another cat 4 or 5 hurricane hits close to NO this could be the end of the city's existance

[windycity]

the warm water in the gulf has bothered me for months. Its part of the loop current, that i know but its warmer and larger than normal. Perhaps this is the new normal, and its a sign to us to make us think where we should be building.

[f5]

the warm water in the gulf has bothered me for months. Its part of the loop current, that i know but its warmer and larger than normal. Perhaps this is the new normal, and its a sign to us to make us think where we should be building.

that loop current is what made Katrina&Rita a storm of legend

[cycloneye]

More warming at this update of the data at el nino 1-2 area west of SouthAmerica.Will there be a big surprise of el nino waking up?





Some cool pockets haved appeared in parts of the Atlantic but also there are warm pockets too and the warm anomaly in the GOM persists.

[cycloneye]

Here is the graphic of the GOM and the loop current some here are talking about.

[f5]

see that 25 to 26 in the loop current convert that to farienheit that comes out to 77-78 degress and this is when the water temperatures should be at their lowest point

[Jim Hughes]

i agree. A surprise el nino would be such a blessing, while a neg. enso year would put florida at a higher risk for land falls. Jim, what do you think?

There are many variables to consider here and I could not say at this time as to whether Florida will be at more or less of a risk. Let's see how all of this evolves. We still have a strong AMO and that is the key component here.


Jim

[James]

Certainly a lot of warming going on in the E. Pacific.

[cycloneye]

The latest anomalie loop shows the warm area expanding westward from SouthAmerica.Let's keep watching this to see if it's a fluctuation or is a definite trend towards warming of the pacific.

[cycloneye]

Not as warm today as in the past few days at el nino 1-2 but still warmer than el nino 3-4 areas.In the Atlantivc side still the warm spot in the GOM persists and the Tropical Atlantic is somewhat less warm than in past 2 weeks.

[MiamiensisWx]

It seems warmer in the central Pacific now than recently...

[P.K.]

CURRENT STATUS as at 22nd February 2006
Next update expected by 8th March 2006 (two weeks after this update).

| Summary | In Brief | Details |

Summary: Some easing of La Niña indicators

After a fairly rapid evolution of incipient La Niña conditions by early February, the past two weeks has seen some key indicators ease to levels more typical of neutral conditions. Specifically, central to eastern Pacific surface temperatures have risen abruptly, the SOI has fallen back to near zero and the Trade Winds have decreased to average intensity in the western to central Pacific. However, given the large mass of cooler than average water that remains in the subsurface of the eastern Pacific, it may be premature to assume this trend away from La Niña conditions will continue.

Adding to the uncertainty is the fact that we're nearing the ENSO prediction barrier of March to June, the time when predictability of the climate system is at its lowest, and the time when ENSO events usually decay or begin to form. Neverthelss, Australian and international computer models strongly suggest neutral conditions will be present by the middle of the year due to a steady warming of the central Pacific between now and the southern winter.

It is also unknown in the historical record for a La Niña event of any significance (either in terms of duration or intensity), to evolve during the southern summer. Accordingly, it shouldn't be assumed that typical Australian La Niña impacts (widespread above average rainfall, some flooding, more tropical cyclones) will occur.

[JamesFromMaine2]

The Atlantic is starting to warm up in the past couple of days! Watch the loop and you can really see it!

[cycloneye]

If you look at the graphics in this thread and above at this page it seems that less warm conditions once again has got to the area of el Nino 1-2 off SouthAmerica than in the past few days.As I haved said before fluctuations occur many times but what we have to watch for is a definite trend of cool waters persisting or warmer anomalies expanding westward which is not occuring now.

[f5]

The Atlantic is starting to warm up in the past couple of days! Watch the loop and you can really see it!

that bull horn feature in the GOM looks like UT's longhorn mascot

[JonathanBelles]

gulp

[jrod]

I've seen that they are warming up. Usually its not till the Spring Equinox until you can see them up warm on the NHC's SST loop. 98 days and counting until the season officially opens up. If those waters keep warming like that I bet it will begin early.

[skysummit]

That "tongue" of warmer water in the Central GOM looks simliar to what it looked like before last season.