Neg. NAO/East Coast Winter Trough... Strong Recurving '06?
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Neg. NAO/East Coast Winter Trough... Strong Recurving '06?
I've noticed that many models are forecasting a fairly strong negative NAO to continue to develop this month and potentially into a few more months, with troughing along the northeastern and eastern U.S. coast to develop. Could this signify a general pattern trend towards troughing in 2006 that results in a strong recurving Cape Verde season? 1996 had a negative NAO develop in winter around this time and had a strong recurving season develop. What effect does a negative NAO and troughing in winter this time of year have on the hurricane season? Any thoughts?
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- wxmann_91
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CapeVerdeWave wrote:I never said it would last through summer. What effect does it have on the pattern setup for hurricane season, though?
It won't last many months, that's what I meant to say.
A -NAO would mean higher than normal heights across the North Atlantic, favoring development of tropical cyclones, but a East Coast trough and thus a reduced risk in the U.S. However, the islands of Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles will be at a higher risk, as well as Bermuda.
Will there be a -NAO that could dominate throughout Hurricane Season? Don't know, too early to tell. The ensembles point out the NAO is expected to go postitive by mid-March, but Mr. Sutherland in the Winter forum has pointed out that it could turn negative again, which is certainly possible. If it does the spring of 2006 could be somewhat like the winter of 1996 when the NAO constantly switched from negative to positive. So in summary, we'll see.

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