Indian Ocean:Tropical Cyclone Carina

#1 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Feb 21, 2006 5:45 pm

21/2130 UTC 8.2S 82.3E T1.0/1.0 90S -- South Indian Ocean

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.0S 83.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 625 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 211228Z SSMIS PASS REVEAL A
POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DEVELOPING IN AN ELONGATED
AREA OF TROUGHING AND CLOSE TO THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A REGION
OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

NOT LOOKING BAD! STILL NO WORD FROM LA REUNION.

#2 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Feb 21, 2006 5:53 pm

#3 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Feb 21, 2006 11:20 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.0S
83.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3S 81.9E, APPROXIMATELY 565 NM EAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS
AN IMPROVED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, AS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS ON THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE APPEAR TO BE
ROTATING CYCLONICALLY TOWARD AN ORGANIZING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES REDUCED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW DIRECTLY ABOVE
THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1003 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED OUTFLOW ALOFT AND AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZED
CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

MiamiensisWx · #4 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Wed Feb 22, 2006 10:42 am

Appears to be a bit less organized now!

#5 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Feb 22, 2006 9:08 pm

NRL - 35 MPH!

BULLETIN DU 23 FEVRIER A 04H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

PERTURBATION TROPICALE 10-20052006

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1002 HPA.
POSITION LE 23 FEVRIER A 04 HEURES LOCALES: 9.9 SUD / 81.4 EST
(NEUF DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-UN DEGRES QUATRE EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 3000 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 7 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 11.1S/80.9E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 12.7S/80.5E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 14.2S/80.1E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.

LOOKING REALLY GOOD RIGHT NOW, AND METEO-FRANCE THINKS IT HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF BECOMING "CARINA".

#6 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Feb 22, 2006 9:50 pm

23/0230 UTC 9.7S 81.5E T2.0/2.0 90S -- South Indian Ocean

#7 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Feb 22, 2006 10:36 pm

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 230321Z FEB 06//
WTXS21 PGTW 230330
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.8S 81.5E TO 11.9S 80.3E WITH
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
230000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.1S
81.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 240330Z.

#8 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Feb 22, 2006 11:08 pm

A TROPICAL CYCLONE SEEMS TO HAVE BORN! IT'S LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A TROPICAL STORM ALREADY.

#9 Postby **P.K.** » Thu Feb 23, 2006 5:19 am

Upgraded to a TD.

BULLETIN DU 23 FEVRIER A 10H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

DEPRESSION TROPICALE 10-20052006

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 999 HPA.
POSITION LE 23 FEVRIER A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 10.5 SUD / 81.8 EST
(DIX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-UN DEGRES HUIT EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 3010 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD A 7 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 12S/81.4E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 13.5S/80.8E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 15S/80.5E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
IL SERA REACTUALISE CETTE APRES-MIDI A 16H30 LOCALES.

#10 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Feb 23, 2006 7:20 am

WTXS32 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/230752ZFEB2006//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230321ZFEB2006//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNING NR 001

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

---

WARNING POSITION:

230600Z --- NEAR 10.7S 81.1E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 81.1E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

231800Z --- 11.2S 80.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

240600Z --- 11.5S 79.1E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

241800Z --- 11.6S 78.4E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

250600Z --- 11.8S 78.1E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

---

REMARKS:

230900Z POSITION NEAR 10.8S 80.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. BUILDING RIDGING TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO STEER THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHWARD AROUND TAU 36.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 230321Z

FEB 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 230330) MAX-
IMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 232100Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

#11 Postby **P.K.** » Thu Feb 23, 2006 7:26 am

Pressure down 1hPa.

BULLETIN DU 23 FEVRIER A 16H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

DEPRESSION TROPICALE 10-20052006

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 998 HPA.
POSITION LE 23 FEVRIER A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 10.5 SUD / 81.6 EST
(DIX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-UN DEGRES SIX EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2990 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE A 3 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 11.2S/81E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 12.3S/80.4E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 13.5S/79.7E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
IL SERA REACTUALISE CE SOIR A 22H30 LOCALES.

#12 Postby **P.K.** » Thu Feb 23, 2006 1:37 pm

35kts, so this is weaker than the previous storm but gets a name??

BULLETIN DU 23 FEVRIER A 22H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CARINA

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 996 HPA.
POSITION LE 23 FEVRIER A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 10.8 SUD / 81.4 EST
(DIX DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-UN DEGRES QUATRE EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2955 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 11.2S/80.9E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 11.9S/80.3E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 12.6S/79.5E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
BULLETIN REACTUALISE A 04H30

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #13 Postby **senorpepr** » Thu Feb 23, 2006 1:41 pm

TD Ten (10R / 14S) advisories are on the S2K Worldwide Tropical Update page:

http://tropicalupdate.storm2k.org/
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/swio.htm

MiamiensisWx · #14 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Thu Feb 23, 2006 2:09 pm

A bit less organized in shape and outflow now, but convection is still deep near the center!

Visible...

#15 Postby **P.K.** » Thu Feb 23, 2006 7:44 pm

40kts

BULLETIN DU 24 FEVRIER A 04H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CARINA

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 993 HPA.
POSITION LE 24 FEVRIER A 04 HEURES LOCALES: 11.8 SUD / 81.7 EST
(ONZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-UN DEGRES SEPT EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2940 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD A 5 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 12.5S/81.2E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 13S/80.4E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 14S/78.8E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
BULLETIN ACTUALISE A 10H30 LOC.

#16 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Feb 23, 2006 8:38 pm

1 ... 2 ... 3 ... KABOOM!!!

#17 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Feb 23, 2006 8:50 pm

Oooohhh.what happened there!

#18 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Feb 23, 2006 9:16 pm

14SNONAME.55kts-984mb-118S-813E.jpg

AFTER SUCH AN EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE BURST, THERE IS NO SURPRISE!

#19 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Feb 23, 2006 9:19 pm

NO MATTER WHAT KIND OF SATELLITE IMAGE YOU USE, SHE'S LOOKIN' GOOOOOOOOOOD!!!!

cheezyWXguy · #20 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Thu Feb 23, 2006 9:21 pm

HURAKAN wrote:

NO MATTER WHAT KIND OF SATELLITE IMAGE YOU USE, SHE'S LOOKIN' GOOOOOOOOOOD!!!!

Ill say, its looking like this could be a biggie...any chance this would be one of those "major cyclones"(you know the reg. CAT3 and above)

Indian Ocean:Tropical Cyclone Carina

Indian Ocean:Tropical Cyclone Carina

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