POAMA model=Neutral ENSO at peak of Hurricane season

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cycloneye
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POAMA model=Neutral ENSO at peak of Hurricane season

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 22, 2006 6:42 pm

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/coupled_model/poama.shtml

POAMA stands for=Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia

The Australians are predicting Neutral conditions when hurricane season rolls in and going into the peak of the season.

Let's see what NOAA says in the comming weeks and also see how the equatorial Pacific evolves in the next 3-4 months.
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Opal storm

#2 Postby Opal storm » Wed Feb 22, 2006 6:43 pm

Isn't neutral bad?
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 22, 2006 6:46 pm

Opal storm wrote:Isn't neutral bad?


2005 season was at Neutral ENSO,the rest is history.
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#4 Postby windycity » Wed Feb 22, 2006 6:54 pm

neg. ENSO. figured that much when ya look at the sst graphs. Cycloneye,what do you feel about the ridge set up for Fl.? I will be praying for you and the islands this season, as i know you are at high risk.
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#5 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Feb 22, 2006 7:01 pm

hmmm...well, either way it isnt shaping up good for me...will need to watch the high pressure, SST's, shear and the SAL still though...
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#6 Postby P.K. » Wed Feb 22, 2006 7:31 pm

Here is the full list of models that I linked to in the poll.

GROUP 5 MONTHS (June 2006) 8 MONTHS (Sep 2006)
POAMA (run at Bureau of Met) Neutral Neutral
CPC Neutral Neutral
ECMWF Neutral Not Available
UKMO Neutral Not Available
LDEO Neutral Neutral
NCEP Neutral Neutral
NOAA LINEAR INVERSE Neutral Neutral
SCRIPPS/MPI Neutral Neutral
NSIPP/NASA Neutral Warm
JMA Neutral Not Available
SSES (Ohio) Neutral Not Available
CLIPER Neutral Neutral
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 22, 2006 7:35 pm

P.K. wrote:Here is the full list of models that I linked to in the poll.

GROUP 5 MONTHS (June 2006) 8 MONTHS (Sep 2006)
POAMA (run at Bureau of Met) Neutral Neutral
CPC Neutral Neutral
ECMWF Neutral Not Available
UKMO Neutral Not Available
LDEO Neutral Neutral
NCEP Neutral Neutral
NOAA LINEAR INVERSE Neutral Neutral
SCRIPPS/MPI Neutral Neutral
NSIPP/NASA Neutral Warm
JMA Neutral Not Available
SSES (Ohio) Neutral Not Available
CLIPER Neutral Neutral


Yes the vast majority are for Neutral ENSO.By the end of this month a new update of all those models including POAMA will have a new update but I dont expect a change from this January one.

What POAMA does is update daily what is going on with the anomalies in the Pacific and at the same time they update their long range predictions in a daily basis.
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#8 Postby weatherwindow » Wed Feb 22, 2006 7:58 pm

altho i may be incorrect, i remember that the bmo had been backing a warm episode for the height of season 2005...perhaps there is some sort of model bias?...rich
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#9 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 22, 2006 8:42 pm

weatherwindow wrote:altho i may be incorrect, i remember that the bmo had been backing a warm episode for the height of season 2005...perhaps there is some sort of model bias?...rich


Yes I remember about them predicting a el Nino type ENSO.I am with you Rich about a bias toward warm ENSO from the Aussies.
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