Worst-case (Yet Frighteningly Realistic) SE Fla. Storm

[wxmann_91]

ugh.....this again.....



As I have said before, many many many times. Florida is like.....an impossible target to miss. Show me two consecutive years where the Florida Peninsula didn't take a hit from a TC and i'll show you one confused human soul.


You've posted your Florence track here, in the doomsday topic and in your allready made prediction topic. I think I speak for more then myself when I say the point has been made my friend. There is no need to overdo it.


But hey man, for your sake I sure hope Florence is a monster FLA storm. Cause you've got alot of jokes coming your way if it isn't lol.

1977 and 1978
1954, 1955, and 1956
1942 and 1943
1922 and 1923

[wxmann_91]

i searched for about 5 minutes...

so did I lol...

[Weatherfreak000]

Glad you guys all got amusement of of that lol...


However geez, I didn't imagine there were this many cases of the situation. I guess i'm eating crow on that one.

[brunota2003]

no...the crow went extinct on August 30, 2005...we now have to find something else to eat...fire ants anyone???

[MiamiensisWx]

Weatherfreak000, why are you calling my post "amusement"? Also, what "jokes"?

[windycity]

i agree , this post was ment to get our attention, because many, many people think it wont happen,for various reasons. CapeVerdeWave is hardly -removed-,not after 2 years of being hit. I say a job very well done, and at the end of the season there will be relief or saddness. This one isnt about crow.

[Weatherfreak000]

Geez, I was saying "amusement" because a few select members scoured the historys for two years without Florida hits because I figured there probably wasn't.


I never said your post was "amusing". As far as jokes i'm merely stating it'll be fondly remembered and friendly critized if your Florence predicition comes untrue (and hopefully so)

[cheezyWXguy]

Do you really think its gonna be Florrence...I would expect a name farther in the alphabet such as the "H" or "I" names...just putting out what I think...But I do think that senario is very possible, especially after what happnend with Katrina

[wxmann_91]

Here's my hypothetical prediction:



Max winds: 175 mph
Minimum pressure in GOM: 900 mb
Minimum pressure in Atlantic: 912 mb

Landfall (Turks & Caicos): 165 mph, 912 mb
Landfall (Abaco I.): 150 mph, 922 mb
Landfall (Miami Beach, FL): 160 mph, 914 mb
Landfall (Miami, FL): 155 mph, 915 mb
Landfall (Grand Isle, LA): 125 mph, 923 mb
Landfall (just southwest of Madisonville, LA): 100 mph, 940 mb

Effects:
New Orleans submerged
MGC affected by 10-20 ft surge
Areas of Grand Isle and Plaquemines inundated by 25 ft surges
New Orleans submerged again
Near complete devastation in Miami and a 20 ft surge to Ft. Lauderdale, 10-15 ft surge up to WPB
Many Bahamians are dead since only 36 hours previously Debby was only a T.S.
Devastating freshwater flooding in southern MS and LA b/c after landfall Debby stalls
$100 billion in Miami, $125 billion in NOLA in damages, along with a $5 billion in the Bahamas. Costliest ever.

[ROCK]

CVW, why don't you do a worst case scenario for all major cities on the coast. If you think about it, that would make for an interesting read at night. Book idea is a good one....

[wxmann_91]

CVW, why don't you do a worst case scenario for all major cities on the coast. If you think about it, that would make for an interesting read at night. Book idea is a good one....

There's already a thread for that...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 10&start=0

[hookemfins]

I just don't see what's so shocking about his post? Florida sits out there and is prone to hurricanes. History dictates that SE FL gets hit on average once every four years by a tropical storm/hurricane, a hurricane every 11 years and a major every 13 years. These are storms from the E, SE and coming from S ala Irene and King. Of course it will be higher if you include Wilma senarios.

While I don't subscribe to theory that if because the past two years hurricanes hit the SE coast that the SE coast will be hit again in 2006. However, they do tend to hit in bunches as with 1926,28 and 33.

The same nearly exact path happened in 1928 as with Florance senario at the top of this thread. Other similar paths (coming from off Africa) 1926, 1945, 1992, Frances in 2004 and I'm sure I haven't covered them all. Yes it can happen this year or next year of 15 years from now. And guess what? It will happen again after that and so on.

I think the point has been made with your other two threads. Florida is vulnerable. I'm in shock.

[MiamiensisWx]

Agreed, hookemfins. Well-said! That is exactly my point. Also, Palm Beach and Broward counties have not seen a major hit from a general easterly direction directly in over 40 years.

[JonathanBelles]

History dictates that SE FL gets hit on average once every four years by a tropical storm/hurricane, a hurricane every 11 years and a major every 13 years.

1 every 4 years? lets say 4 every year

[MiamiensisWx]

Any more thoughts?

[cheezyWXguy]

I think this maybe houston's big year as well...also I think another major hurricane is going to hit new orleans and wipe it out for good(I hope these scenarios dont come true)

[ROCK]

CVW, why don't you do a worst case scenario for all major cities on the coast. If you think about it, that would make for an interesting read at night. Book idea is a good one....

There's already a thread for that...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 10&start=0

I know...

[MiamiensisWx]

LAST DIRECT MAJOR HIT ON PALM BEACH COUNTY FROM EAST - 1949

LAST DIRECT MAJOR HIT ON BROWARD COUNTY FROM EAST - 1947

LAST DIRECT MAJOR HIT ON MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FROM EAST (BESIDES ANDREW) - 1965 (Betsy)

All three counties have gone more than 30 years with only one direct hit from the east (Andrew)!

[Scorpion]

Well, it makes you think, since it is so infrequent, it will probably not occur this year either.

[MiamiensisWx]

Well, it makes you think, since it is so infrequent, it will probably not occur this year either.

SHH! Quiet...



It is too early to tell...