The South ATLC peeps are looking in the wrong place

[P.K.]

Derek... if you're reading this... are you going to perform any guidance on this system or are you taking a well-deserved break too?

If he gets a head start on the NHC he could name it TS Derek if it got that strong.

[James]

With these little systems in recent years, it makes you wonder how much we missed before the satellite era.

[senorpepr]

You know... I wouldn't mind seeing NHC picking up the responsibility and calling it Alberto, if it reaches that point...

[James]

You know... I wouldn't mind seeing NHC picking up the responsibility and calling it Alberto, if it reaches that point...

That would be pretty cool actually. There would be a degree of continuity with it as well, with it being the same basic basin and all.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

You know... I wouldn't mind seeing NHC picking up the responsibility and calling it Alberto, if it reaches that point...

I agree totally 100 percent with that.

[HURAKAN]

Agree. Unfortunately we don't have tracking maps of the South Atlantic!!!

[Derek Ortt]

we have never ran an MM5 for the S Atl and have no plans on doing so today

[Derek Ortt]

Dvorak tends to underestimate very small TCs, so its not impossible that this could be a storm

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Dvorak tends to underestimate very small TCs, so its not impossible that this could be a storm

I agree with that at least earlier this morning.

[senorpepr]

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER

CAMP SPRINGS, MD

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SOUTH AMERICAN MODEL DISCUSSION

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1251 PM EST THU FEB 23 2006

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

MODEL COMPARISON (VALID FROM 00Z FEBRUARY 23). EXCEPT FOR
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN CONTINUITY
AND REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE STORM TRACK...WITH SURFACE
LOW NOW TO MOVE ACROSS URUGUAY...WITH A STRONG EASTERLY
FLOW TO ESTABLISH ON THE RIO DE LA PLATA BASIN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST 850 HPA WINDS OF 40-65KT ACROSS
BUENOS AIRES-URUGUAY AND 20-40KT ACROSS RIO GRANDE DO SUL
IN BRASIL. SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN
PROVINCES OF ARGENTINA INTO PARAGUAY WILL ASSOCIATE WITH
A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE.

AT 200 HPA THE BOLIVIAN HIGH WILL MEANDER BETWEEN
NORTHERN CHILE AND THE ALTIPLANO OF BOLIVIA THROUGH 48
HRS...WITH HIGH TO COLLAPSE BY MID CYCLE. AT 72-96 HRS A
NEW HIGH WILL TRY TO FORM FARTHER EAST OVER BRASIL NEAR
18S 46W. EARLY THIS CYCLE...THE HIGH WILL SUSTAIN A BROAD
RIDGE ON CONTINENTAL AREA NORTH OF 25S AND WEST OF 50W.
BY 48-72 HRS THE RIDGE WILL BECOME NARROW AN ELONGATED AS
IT TAKES AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTATION ACROSS THE CONTINENT
WHILE BOUNDING BETWEEN 10S-20S. ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHEASTERN BRASIL-PARAGUAY AND BOLIVIA WILL ASSOCIATE
WITH A POLAR FRONT (SEE BELOW FOR TIMING AND DETAILS). IN
ADDITION TO THE FRONTAL CONVECTION...RAINFALL OVER
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA WILL ASSOCIATE WITH THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL TROUGH. ALONG THIS BOUNDARY CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE FORMING IN CLUSTERS...WITH DAILY MAXIMA OF 25-
50MM THROUGH 60-72 HRS...AND LESSER AMOUNTS LATER IN THE
CYCLE. OVER ECUADOR...RAINFALL MAXIMA WILL REMAIN AROUND
15-35MM/DAY.

A MID/UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF BRASIL WILL MOVE
ALONG 40W TO VITORIA THROUGH 24 HRS...THEN GRADUALLY
DAMPEN WHILE IT DRIFTS FARTHER EAST. AT LOW LEVELS IT
SUPPORTS A SURFACE FRONT...BUT THIS BOUNDARY IS TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH 48 HRS. A LOW NEAR 29S 43W IS
SHOWING WARM CORE CHARACTERISTICS...AS IT HOVERS OVER
WARM WATERS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BUT AN INCREASINGLY
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO HAMPER FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM. SCATTERED RAINFALL OVER
NORTHERN SAO PAULO-RIO DE JANEIRO AND MINAS GERAIS WILL
RESULT IN DAILY MAXIMA OF 15-35MM.

A 500 HPA NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL MOVE TO 34S 60W BY 24
HRS...TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TO RIO GRANDE DO SUL BY 48
HRS...AND OFF THE COAST BY 72 HRS. IT WILL THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH 96-120 HRS WHILE DRIFTING FARTHER EAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT HEIGHT FALLS OF 75-125 GPM
AS IT MOVES ACROSS URUGUAY/SOUTHERN BRASIL EARLY
THIS PERIOD. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN URUGUAY THROUGH 30-36 HRS...WITH A 998-1000 HPA
CLOSED LOW. THE OCCLUDING LOW WILL THEN MOVE OFF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF BRASIL/URUGUAY BY 54-60 HRS...WHERE IT
WILL MEANDER THROUGH 84-90 HRS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
IS RACING NORTH...AND BY 24 HRS THE FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN BRASIL-NORTHERN PROVINCES OF ARGENTINA/
PARAGUAY-SOUTHERN BOLIVIA...WHILE SUSTAINING A SQUALL
LINE/SEVERE WEATHER OVER PARAGUAY-MESOPOTAMIA VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN BOLIVIA. AT 48 HRS IT WILL MOVE ACROSS SANTA
CATARINA-MATO GROSSO DO SUL TO NORTHERN BOLIVIA... TO
THEN DRIFT ACROSS SAO PAULO/RIO DE JANEIRO BY 72 HRS.
AFTER 72/84 HRS THE TAIL END OVER THE CONTINENT WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN. OVER BUENOS AIRES-CENTRAL ARGENTINA/RIO
DE LA PLATA REGION EXPECT POST FRONTAL CONVECTION TO
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM THROUGH 36 HRS. ACROSS PARAGUAY-
SOUTHERN BOLIVIA/NORTHWEST PROVINCES OF ARGENTINA AND
URUGUAY/RIO GRANDE DO SUL EXPECT RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 50-
100MM (HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED). BY 48-60 HRS
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT NORTHERN BOLIVIA-SOUTHERN
PERU...WITH MAXIMA OF 35-70MM...WHILE OVER SOUTHEAST
BRASIL EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. SCATTERED RAINFALL WILL
PERSIST OVER SOUTHERN PARA-AMAZONAS AND CENTRAL PERU WITH
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...WHILE OVER SOUTHEAST BRASIL MAXIMA
WILL DECREASE TO 15-35MM/DAY.

A BROAD TROUGH DOMINATES THE SOUTH PACIFIC...WITH AXIS AT
500 HPA TO MOVE ALONG 90W/100W TO 35S BY 24 HRS. THROUGH
48-72 HRS THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST AGAINST A
SOUTHERN STREAM BLOCKING RIDGE...DISPLACING THE LATTER
ALONG 50W BY MID CYCLE. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS
RIDGE...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SHEAR SOUTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CHILE/PATAGONIA ARGENTINA BY 36-108 HRS. BY 108-
120 HRS THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN CONE. ACROSS CHILE
SOUTH OF 45S...THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
RAINFALL STARTING ON/AROUND 36-48 HRS...AND TO PERSIST
THROUGH 108-120 HRS. DAILY MAXIMA WILL PEAK AT 10-
20MM...WITH ORGANIZED SNOWFALL LIKELY TO AFFECT THE
SOUTHERN ANDES (SOUTH OF 45S) ON ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1.4KM
BY 78-108 HRS.

PLATZ...DMC (CHILE)
RODRIGUEZ...AASANA (BOLIVIA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)


&

[Wthrman13]

Looks interesting. From what I understand, there is still debate raging to this day on whether "Catarina" was actually a TC or not (I recall a huge email exchange on the Tropical-storms list about it). It will be interesting to see how this new storm (note, I'm using storm in the general sense) compares to Catarina and whether it will help to settle or intensify the debate.

I don't agree that they should name it Alberto, even if it were to be regarded as a bonafide TC of TS strength. It technically is in a different basin, so even if the NHC took over responsibility for the S Atlantic and started naming systems down there, I would think they would use a completely different list. Australian TC's are not on the same list as West PAC typhoons, for example. Just my opinion.

[MiamiensisWx]

It probably won't be named now, especially since it is likely about to encounter a more hostile environment.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

wow it looked really good yesterday into this morning. Looks like the shear is starting tp pick up now.

[HURAKAN]

This is the way I look at it:

Since it's a very small system, it found a small area of favorable upper-level winds and warm waters, therefore, it intensified. At the same time, since it's a small system, any change in the environment severely affects the system. We need to raise awareness over the South Atlantic and see how and who will take charge over the basin.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Agree with your thinking...I think the nhc should take change of this area. If not storm2k tropical board will always watch carefully!

[jasons2k]

WOW. Even the mere talk of the NHC 'taking over' the S. Atlantic Basin (supposedly Catarina was a first) plus the whole Vince '05 episode makes one wonder what the heck is going on with our Global Climate...esp. if systems like this become the norm.

[AJC3]

Looks interesting. From what I understand, there is still debate raging to this day on whether "Catarina" was actually a TC or not (I recall a huge email exchange on the Tropical-storms list about it).

Dan, this may be old news here, but last year there was a "summit" of sorts down in Brazil with representatives from the U.S. and Brazil met/research communities. Both sides of the debate were argued and heard. To make a long story short, the overwhelming consensus was that "Catarina" was indeed a hurricane.

Here is a link to the conference summary:

http://www.sbmet.org.br/internas/public ... x_en.html#

Tony

[TheEuropean]

WOW. Even the mere talk of the NHC 'taking over' the S. Atlantic Basin (supposedly Catarina was a first) plus the whole Vince '05 episode makes one wonder what the heck is going on with our Global Climate...esp. if systems like this become the norm.

But who knows that there weren't such storms and hurricanes on tropical and subtropical waters of every basin before the satellite area startet? May be they were already the norm long time before someone study them?

[HURAKAN]

IT WAS GOOD WHILE IT LASTED!

[SouthFloridawx]

A teaser in Feb. that's kind of weird....